Aston Villa play host to Leeds United in the Premier League at Villa Park. There was a huge FA Cup shock at this venue last weekend when League 2 side Stevenage came from behind to beat Villa 2-1. Leeds nearly suffered an early cup exit as well, but equalised late vs Championship outfit Cardiff. In terms of Premier League positions, it’s 11th vs 14th in the table.
I’ve covered everything you’ll need to put together your bet builder for this fiery Friday night fixture. All the stats are below, from goals, all the way through to passes. If you want to be bale to make the most out of my stats pack, then make sure to check out my Stats Pack Guide here.
Predicted Lineups
Villa heavily rotated vs Stevenage and paid the price. Their full strength team is to be expected here, although midfielder Leander Dendoncker is suspended after his red card in the FA Cup. Midfielder John McGinn is doubtful with injury and might not feature.
Manager Unai Emery has used several different formations and systems since taking over at the club. There is a strong chance that he could have Villa play in a 4-2-2-2 narrow or a 4-4-2 diamond for this game.
There was also a lot of rotation in the Leeds team for the FA Cup and Jesse Marsch may well have learnt who he can (or can’t) rely on as a result of that performance.
There is almost certainly going to be a big change in midfield where the likes of Sam Greenwood was totally ineffective. Marc Roca and USA international Tyler Adams should come back into the XI, in addition to top scorer Rodrigo upfront.
Team Stats
Villa average 1.11 goals per match and 1.44 against. This correlates quite closely to their xG and xGA metrics. They are almost the definition of midtable mediocrity in many statistical categories. Villa average 11.11 shots per game and 11.22 shots against. There are very similar SOT numbers with 3.83 for and 3.94 against.
Corners have been slightly on the high side in Villa games. They average 4.22 for and 5.17 against per match. They don’t play overly wide though so there is often a tendency for their opponents to have more. Cards have been plentiful in their fixtures. Villa average a high 2.34 cards per game with their opponents picking up 1.89. There are several feisty and prickly characters in this squad who have been known to produce ill-disciplined performances.
Leeds xG and xGA metrics also correlate quite closely to their actual goalscoring numbers. The Mighty Whites have scored an average of 1.47 goals per game but have a leaky defence, shipping 1.70 goals per match. Leeds matches can often be quite frantic at both ends of the field. They fire in 12.41 shots in each fixture but average a really high 13.76 shots against.
Their opponents average close to five SOT in each game which is one of the primary reasons why they concede so many goals. Corners are something to watch out for in Leeds games. They obtain an average of 5.29 themselves, but also concede 5.12. Leeds are one of the most ill-disciplined teams in the Premier League, amassing a whopping 2.47 cards per game. They can get involved in several mad-type incidents and their opponents also average a high number of cards in each fixture (1.88)
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Four Villa players on this list average over two shots per 90 mins. Striker Danny Ings fires the most shots (2.71) with roughly a 50% accuracy rate. Ollie Watkins is even more accurate with his attempts, converting 2.22 shots into 1.14 SOT.
Leon Bailey is less reliable to hit the target, averaging just 0.59 SOT per 90 mins from 2.30 attempts. Another player worth keeping an eye out for shots if he starts is Philippe Coutinho, who averages 2.27 per 90 mins.
Joe Gelhardt averages the most shots per 90 mins of any Leeds player on this list (4.55), but is not expected to start this game. Top scorer Rodrigo is next, firing in 3.59 shots per 90, but only 1.36 of those have been on target. Rodrigo has a decent scoring record but it’s mostly by a scattergun style approach.
Summer signing Willy Gnonto has been catching the eye recently and averages 1.51 shots, with roughly a third of those efforts on target. If he starts, then midfielder Sam Greenwood is worth watching for shots because he would take most of the set pieces.
Player Goals and Assists
Danny Ings leads the Villa scoring charts with 6 goals. Ollie Watkins has fired in three goals and also supplied four assists. Both Leon Bailey and Jacob Ramsey have contributed with goals and assists for the Birmingham outfit.
Midfielder Douglas Luiz is another to consider in this category. He’s scored twice, assisted twice and makes some deep runs into dangerous territory. Luiz scored recently against Tottenham so his confidence should be quite high.
Rodrigo has finally been paying back some of his sizeable £30m transfer fee this season. The Spaniard, who has 27 international caps for his country has netted 10 times from 16 appearances. He is normally on penalty taking duty although did miss a spot kick vs Cardiff in the FA Cup.
Young Dutch talent Crysencio Summerville is next on the last with four goals and is a man who likes the big occasion. Both Jack Harrison and Brendan Aaronson top the assist charts for Leeds with 3 and 2 respectively.
Player passes
Since Unai Emery took over, Aston Villa have only averaged more than 50% possession in one fixture, which actually came against Wolves in the previous Premier League game. This is going to be an interesting match to see who monopolises the ball more and the overall conclusion is a likely 50/50 split.
No Villa players average more than 60 passes per 90 mins and the two standouts are left back Lucas Digne (58.0) and Douglas Luiz (54.3). These are dangerous waters though in case Villa opt for a more counter-attacking system.
Leeds are a very mixed possession team and their numbers can vary from game to game. No player averages more than 60 passes per 90 mins but the two probably worth considering in this market are midfielder Tyler Adams and defender Pascal Struijk.
Marc Roca is another one who could potentially rack up the passes in the middle of the park. It’s difficult to predict which team will have the lion’s share of possession in this fixture.
Aston Villa Cards
The Villains are no strangers to going into the book. A trio of players all have four cards this season. Leon Bailey averages the most fouls per 90 mins and does not time his tackles very well.
Jacob Ramsay and Tyrone Mings are two other contenders worth looking at in this market. Mings does average less than one foul per game but is prone to mistakes and could suffer against a very physical pressing Leeds side. His matchup with Rodrigo could be key.
The Yorkshire outfit have a lot of pacey players who press a lot. There are also some significant dribblers in the team such as Willy Gnonto and Crysencio Summerville. Whoever plays out wide for Leeds will give the Villa fullbacks plenty of work.
Jack Harrison is another player who has a high dribbling rate. In midfield Brendan Aaronson regularly gets stuck in but can also be a potential foul magnet with his style of play.
Match-Ups to watch
Tyrone Mings vs Rodrigo
Lucas Digne vs Crysencio Summerville
Matty Cash vs Willy Gnonto
Leeds Cards
This is a very ill-disciplined side with several players who pick up a lot of cards. Leeds are a strong pressing team which in itself naturally leads to a lot of fouls. Midfielder Tyler Adams leads them in this category with 1.93 fouls per 90 mins. He also has five cards and already served a suspension for a red against Tottenham back in November.
Right back Rasmus Kristensen is another who regularly gets stuck in, in addition to Marc Roca. This whole team is capable of fouling regularly though. The centre backs Pascal Struijk and Liam Cooper will have their hands full and are prone to mistakes, leading to fouls and cards.
John McGinn is doubtful to play otherwise his midfield matchup vs Adams would be one to watch. Jacob Ramsey is fouled on average 1.95 times per 90 mins, whilst left back Lucas Digne is another who can be a foul magnet (1.62). His clash with Kristensen or potentially Ayling is one to consider.
Both Konsa and Kamara are both fouled on average 1.50 times per 90 mins and could be considered in some matchups.
Match-Ups to watch
Tyler Adams vs McGinn or Ramsey
Rasmus Kristensen vs Lucas Digne
Liam Cooper vs Ollie Watkins
