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Aston Villa vs Liverpool Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Calendar 13th May
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Liverpool GK to make 3+ saves
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Liverpool’s GK has made 3+ saves in 8 of their last 9 games

Aston Villa have 4.86 shots on target per 90 in the league, and have forced 3+ saves in 4 of their last 6 games

Football icon Luis Diaz to have 1+ shots on target
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Diaz takes 3.55 shots per 90, having 1.12 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League so far this season

He has had at least 1 shot on target in 9 of his last 11 Liverpool games in all competitions

Football icon Harvey Elliott to be fouled 1+ times
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Elliott has won a foul in 5 of his last 6 games, despite starting just 3 of these games, and has won a foul in 6 of his last 8 league starts

He is against John McGinn, who commits 1.18 fouls per 90 and Leon Bailey, who commits 1.14

Football icon Ezri Konsa to be fouled 2+ times
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Konsa ranks third for fouls drawn at Villa, winning 1.90 per 90 in the PL, and he has been fouled 2+ times in 7 of his last 8 PL starts

Luis Diaz is his matchup, and the Colombian commits 1.70 fouls per 90, committing 2+ fouls himself in 5 of his last 9 league games

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool is the final Monday Night Football game of the season in the Premier League.

The Villans must quickly regroup from their disappointing Conference League exit at the hands of Greek side Olympiacos, whilst Liverpool are likely to enter this one knowing that their already slim title hopes are over for good.

If Tottenham fail to win against Burnley on Saturday afternoon then Villa will have qualified for Champions League football next season, although with a seven point cushion and just three games to go for the side from North London Unai Emery’s side can be quite confident that this is all but confirmed.

With both sides potentially having nothing left to play for, and both having struggled defensively recently, this could be an open and entertaining game. It’s also one that looks like a great game for a bet, so have a read of our heavily-researched tips below and pick your favourites to craft yourself an Aston Villa vs Liverpool bet builder.

Stats Pack Guide can help you find value in the data and aid you in your bet builder selections.

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool predicted lineups

Unai Emery to make a few adjustments

Following their 2-0 defeat away to Olympiacos, and despite the lack of rest for his players, just one change is expected from Unai Emery, with Matty Cash likely to be withdrawn in favour of young Colombian striker Jhon Duran. That will necessitate a change of formation from 5-4-1 to 4-4-2, with Watkins and Duran up front, and Ezri Konsa slotting into right-back and Diego Carlos and Pau Torres as the centre-back pairing.

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Liverpool to keep it simple

Despite two late goals making it interesting, Liverpool were overall incredibly comfortable in their 4-2 win over a struggling Tottenham last time out. Having scored four times and never looking in danger of not winning the game, Jurgen Klopp is expected to keep the starting XI exactly the same as he did last weekend, with no fresh injury concerns and a full week of rest before this clash.

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool team stats

Villa double chance definitely worth a look

Nice longshot potential is available on Villa in the double chance markets here. Whilst their form has tailed off somewhat with the fixture congestion presented by their run to the Conference League semi-finals, they have still been beaten just three times at Villa Park this season. They are unbeaten in their last four league games at home, losing just one of their last seven on their own patch in all competitions. Liverpool meanwhile have won just one of their last three league games and won only three of their last seven in all competitions, one of which was the second leg against Atalanta which was essentially a dead rubber as the Italian side already held a 3-0 advantage from the first leg. With Villa being available at odds-against to win or draw, the value is hard to pass up.

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Liverpool saves market offers plenty of value

Liverpool’s defensive woes have been a key theme of the last couple of months, but despite this the lines for the goalkeeper saves market have not been keeping up. The Reds goalkeeper has made at least three saves in eight of their last nine games in all competitions, and throughout the entire season they have conceded 3.86 shots on target per 90. Villa meanwhile have had 4.86 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League and have forced the opposition goalkeeper into at least three saves in four of their last six games in all competitions. Despite this, you can back the Liverpool keeper to make three or more saves at 1.80 here, which simply looks way too high when considering the data.

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool shots and shots on target stats

Nice value on Jhon Duran

A rare start for the Colombia international could offer nice value in the shots markets. Duran has only started and played over 45 minutes in five games for the Villans, but he has had at least one shot on target in each of the five, including an away game against Man City. Duran has taken three or more shots in three of these five games and has had two or more shots on target in four of the five. He averages 1.22 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League, and this rate is even higher when he starts. Duran has taken 13 shots in his five starts, with 10 of these being on target. With such a high shot efficiency, backing him to have a shot on target here at 1.62 looks a very interesting option.

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Consistent Luis Diaz offers great value

Luis Diaz sits third in the shot on target per 90 charts for Liverpool in the Premier League, at 1.12 from his 3.55 shots per 90. The Colombia international has now had a shot on target in nine of his last 11 Liverpool games in all competitions. He has had eight shots in his last three games, resulting in four shots on target, and looks excellent value to have another shot on target here, as he can be backed to do so at 1.50.

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool goals and assist stats

Ollie Watkins the easy choice here

Villa’s number 11 is coming to the end of the best season of his career. He has 28 goals and 12 assists in 55 games, and he has continued to add to this tally even through the slight downturn in form the Villans have experienced in recent weeks. Watkins has either scored or assisted in five of his last nine Villa starts and has contributed to a goal in five of the last seven games in which Villa did not draw a blank. Liverpool have really struggled with keeping clean sheets lately, and if Villa are to score here, you would expect Watkins to be involved with a goal or an assist. He can be backed to score or assist at any point here at 2.20.

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Cody Gakpo is a solid option for a goal or assist

With Darwin Nunez looking likely to leave the club, Cody Gakpo has had a run of starts for Liverpool, and he has repaid the faith shown by Jurgen Klopp with consistent production. He has a goal and two assists in his last three Premier League starts for the club and scored and assisted in his last start against Spurs. With 14 shots in these three games, and five shots on target Gakpo looks a very solid option to either get on the scoresheet or set up a teammate here, and he can be backed to do so at 2.10 here.

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Aston Villa cards and fouls stats

Douglas Luiz offers amazing value for fouls

Douglas Luiz looks to be a very strong option for a higher odds Aston Villa v Liverpool bet builder here. The midfielder commits the second-most fouls per 90 of any Villa player in the Premier League, at 1.56, and has now committed a foul in 13 of his last 14 games in all competitions. He can be backed to commit one foul at 1.25 but has also committed two or more fouls in nine of his last 10 Villa games in all competitions. He will be going up against Alexis Mac Allister, who wins 1.62 fouls per 90 in the league, and has won two or more fouls in four of his last six, so backing Luiz to commit two or more fouls at 2.25 could be a smart play here.

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Harvey Elliott has gone somewhat under the radar on the fouls won markets here. The youngster just sneaks into Liverpool’s top five for fouls won per 90 in the Premier League (0.90), but recent games suggest his price of 1.83 to be fouled one or more times is way too high. Elliott has won a foul in five of his last six league games, despite starting only three of these six, whilst his last eight league starts have seen him be fouled at least once six times. He is up against John McGinn and also in and around Leon Bailey, both of whom sit in the top five for Villa fouls per 90 in the league, at 1.18 and 1.14 respectively.

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Liverpool cards and fouls stats

Wataru Endo always there or thereabouts for fouls

Comfortably topping the Liverpool foul charts, Wataru Endo’s 2.60 fouls per 90 in the Premier League is way clear of Alexis Mac Allister in second (1.88). Endo has committed at least two fouls in six of his last eight games, including a 28 minute bench cameo that saw Endo foul twice. He is up against John McGinn, who draws the most fouls for Villa at 2.04 per 90 in the league, and Douglas Luiz, who comes in fourth in this metric, with 1.24. Up against two players very adept at winning fouls, Endo to commit two or more at 1.40 looks a nice option here.

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Ezri Konsa wins 1.90 fouls per 90 in the Premier League for Villa, the third-most in the side, and an impressive tally for a centre-back essentially still learning his trade at full back. Konsa has now won two or more fouls in seven of his last eight games for the Villans in all competitions, winning one foul in the one game he fell short of this line. He is up against the aggressive Luis Diaz here, the Colombia winger committing 1.70 fouls per 90 in the league and having committed two or more fouls himself in five of his last nine Premier League games. All things considered, Konsa looks seriously undervalued at 1.73 to win two or more fouls here.

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