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Man City vs Aston Villa Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Man City vs Aston Villa

Calendar 3rd April
Football icon kick off 20:15
Football icon Leon Bailey to Commit 1+ Fouls
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Leon Bailey has committed 1.19 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season and five in his last six Premier League starts.

He will up against a left-hand side of Josko Gvardiol, who draws 0.92 fouls per 90 and Jeremy Doku, who draws 1.75 fouls per 90.

Football icon Over 2.5 Aston Villa Corners
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Villa have beaten this corner line in 28 of their 30 Premier League games, last failing to do so in November 2023.

Villa had 6 corners against City in December and have hit at least 4 corners in their last 14 straight league games.

Football icon Douglas Luiz to have 1+ shots
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Luiz had 5 shots, with 1 on target, when these two sides met earlier in the season.

He averages 1.51 shots per 90 and has taken at least one shot in 12 of his last 16 league games.

Football icon Rico Lewis to be fouled 1+ times
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Lewis has been fouled in 13 of his 14 starts for club and country this season.

Villa’s two predicted players down his flank are Morgan Rogers and Alex Moreno, who commit 3.33 and 0.90 fouls per 90 respectively.

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As the end of the season rapidly approaches, both of these sides are competing on multiple fronts.

Man City are still in the running to complete a second consecutive treble, while Aston Villa are chasing a top-four finish and Champions League football for next season, along with their Europa Conference League campaign.

City are three points off the top of the Premier League, and a point behind Arsenal in second, while Villa are five points further back from City, although they have played a game more. They have a three-point advantage over fifth-placed Spurs, but again, the side from North London have a game in hand on the Villans.

Essentially, it is incredibly tight for both sides, neither of whom can afford to drop points. Losing this game would potentially kill Man City’s title hopes, while a loss for Villa would ensure that their chances of finishing fourth are no longer in their hands, but in the hands of Tottenham.

The last time these two sides met, a weakened City team was dominated by Villa in what may have been the treble winners’ worst performance of the season to date. The scoreline may have only been 1-0 but City had just two shots to Villa’s 22, with Unai Emery’s side registering 2.38 xG. Away from home a similar level of dominance should not be expected but this will certainly be a tough test for City.

This looks like a great game to get stuck into for betting, so if you’re fancying a Wednesday night Man City vs Aston Villa bet builder, look no further as we have all the best tips in a range of markets listed below, along with the research as to why it’s worth backing.

Our Stats Pack Guide can help you find value in the data and aid you in your bet builder selections.

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Man City vs Aston Villa predicted lineups

City continue to miss key players

Nathan Ake was the latest defensive player to go down for City, hobbling off after just 27 minutes against Arsenal at the weekend. That means Ederson, John Stones and Kyle Walker are all out for City, and their defence should remain as it was to end the Arsenal game, with Stefan Ortega in goal, Josko Gvardiol, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias and Rico Lewis as the back four. Further upfield, Mateo Kovacic is expected to return to the bench, as is Kevin De Bruyne. That means Jeremy Doku takes his place on the left, and Bernardo Silva plays alongside Rodri with Matheus Nunes ahead of them and Phil Foden switching to the right flank.

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Ollie Watkins is doubtful in big blow to Villa

Although not thought to be serious, a game against Man City at the Etihad is not one where you want to be missing your best player. Ollie Watkins is a doubt for this clash, as are Jacob Ramsey and Matty Cash. John McGinn is serving a three-match suspension after his straight red card and also misses out, with the team likely to remain unchanged from the 2-0 win over Wolves, except for Jhon Duran getting the nod up front to replace Watkins, should he fail a late fitness test.

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Man City vs Aston Villa team stats

Do not expect goals to fly in here

Though they have often been known for their free-scoring exploits, this has rarely been the case for Man City this season. They have scored four or more goals in a league game just three times this season, and in their last six Premier League games they have scored more than one goal just once, against Man United at the start of March. Under 3.5 goals has landed in six of their last seven games, whilst visitors Villa have also struggled to create chances of late. Of their 30 games played in the league, they have failed to generate more than 1.0 xG just eight times, three of which have all come in their last three games. With both sides struggling to score and three points being crucial for both, expect a tight contest with few chances and even fewer goals.

4 2 2024 MANCHESTER CITY betbuilder stats pack TEAM STATS

Great value on Villa corners

Though Man City take the most corners in the Premier League, and concede the second-fewest, there is still value to be found on the corners markets for the visitors here. Unai Emery’s side average 6.30 corners per game, the fifth-highest in the division, yet they can be backed to take over 2.5 corners at odds of 1.45. Across 30 league games this season, the Villans have failed to take three or more corners on just two occasions, which came in September and November last year respectively. Having taken four or more corners in 14 straight league games dating back to December 2023, and having had six corners when these two sides met in the reverse fixture, backing this low corner line looks a no-brainer.

4 2 2024 ASTON VILLA betbuilder stats pack TEAM STATS

Man City vs Aston Villa shots and shots on target stats

Doku in good shooting form of late

While his finishing can often be wayward, Jeremy Doku has certainly improved as the season has gone on for Man City. The Belgian winger has started just two of City’s last five games in all competitions, but he has still had at least one shot on target in four of these games. Averaging 0.73 shots on target per 90 from 2.63 shots, Doku offers by far the best value of any City attacker expected to start in the shots markets.

4 2 2024 MANCHESTER CITY betbuilder stats pack SHOOTING

Douglas Luiz provides a nice option here

The Brazilian has been prolific for a defensive midfielder this season, taking 42 shots in his 29 league starts and scoring nine goals for the club. Despite this, he is sitting as long as 1.53 to have a single shot in this game, level with City players who aren’t even fit to start the game such as John Stones and Nathan Ake. Luiz averages 1.51 shots per 90 and has had at least one shot in 12 of his last 16 league games for Villa. He also had five shots at Villa Park when these two sides met last time, and with his side lacking Ollie Watkins’ hold-up play, Villa’s best chance to score here may come from a long shot from deep, something Luiz specialises in.

4 2 2024 ASTON VILLA betbuilder stats pack SHOOTING

Man City vs Aston Villa Goals and Assists stats

Nice longshot potential for Rodri in the assist markets

With John Stones and Jack Grealish missing substantial time for City, their go-to man for protecting the ball and moving it downfield has become Rodri. The Spaniard has been averaging over 100 attempted passes per 90 all season and has by far the most touches at 121.0 per 90, 20 more than Dias in second. With so much of this possession coming within five yards of the opponent’s penalty box, Rodri has been racking up the assists of late, notching four assists in his last five starts for City. In his last 10 games, Rodri has completed at least three passes which have led directly to a shot in all of his last nine, whilst he has had five games in this last 10 in which he created five or more shots with passes. Despite this, he is currently priced as high as 4.50 to get an assist here.

4 2 2024 MANCHESTER CITY betbuilder stats pack GOALSCORING

Usual Finisher Diaby gets a start

In Moussa Diaby’s last four league games, he has come off the bench in three, but assists in two of those games have helped earn the Frenchman a starting role again. He scored a goal and set another up in the 2-0 win over Wolves as Emery started him for the first time in the league since January and looks set to keep his place. He also scored on his last start for Villa, bagging a goal in their 4-0 second leg win over Ajax. Diaby has been in great form, yet sits at 3.75 to score or assist here, again making him a nice longshot option for those seeking to boost their odds.

4 2 2024 ASTON VILLA betbuilder stats pack GOALSCORING

Man City CARDS AND FOULS  stats

Nice value available on Ruben Dias

The Portuguese international loves to get stuck in, and often walks a fine line between a tackle and a foul. Dias has committed 0.98 fouls per 90 this season in the Premier League and has now committed a foul in six of his last seven league starts for City. He will be tasked with marshalling Jhon Duran, the Colombian draws more fouls than any other Villa player at 2.26, and he has drawn a foul in each of his last three Villa games (despite starting just one of the three). Dias also committed two fouls the last time these sides met, in December, and he can be backed to commit another foul here at 1.40.

4 2 2024 MANCHESTER CITY betbuilder stats pack CARDS FOR

Ezri Konsa has surprisingly won more fouls than any regular Villa starter (1.80 per 90), only beaten here by Jhon Duran (2.26). The England international has been playing right back for much of the season and uses his body and strength to force players into fouling him before being able to make a clean tackle. He will be up against Jeremy Doku and Josko Gvardiol, both of whom sit in the top 5 amongst City players for fouls committed (0.80 and 0.98 fouls per 90 respectively). Konsa has now been fouled in five straight games for Villa in all competitions and can be backed to be fouled here at 1.36.

4 2 2024 ASTON VILLA betbuilder stats pack CARDS DRAWN

Aston Villa CARDS AND FOULS  Stats

Value to be found in backing Leon Bailey

The Jamaican has really established himself as a starter this season, thanks to both his creativity but also his work rate, with constant pressure needed to enable Unai Emery’s high line system to work. Bailey’s willingness to press does lead to fouls, and he has now committed a foul in five of his last six Premier League starts. Bailey will be up against Josko Gvardiol and helping to defend against Jeremy Doku, with Gvardiol winning 0.92 fouls per 90, and Doku winning 1.75 fouls per 90. Bailey has averaged 1.19 fouls per 90 in the league this season and can be backed to make it six out of seven league games with a foul at 1.40.

4 2 2024 ASTON VILLA betbuilder stats pack CARDS FOR

Young full back/midfielder Rico Lewis has been in and around the City side this season, making a similar rate of steady progress to Phil Foden. He tops the charts for fouls won by City players, drawing an impressive 1.90 per 90 that is unmatched even by Jeremy Doku and Foden. Across 14 starts for club and country this season, Lewis has been fouled in 13, and he he was even fouled twice against Arsenal after coming off the bench at the weekend. Up against Morgan Rogers, who has committed six fouls in just four starts for Villa, and Alex Moreno who commits 0.90 per 90, Lewis to be fouled at 1.30 looks a no-brainer.

4 2 2024 MANCHESTER CITY betbuilder stats pack CARDS DRAWN

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