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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan

Calendar 13th March
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Alvaro Morata 1+ Shots on Target
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The Spanish international averages 1.62 Shots on target per 90 mins and in a must win game at home he should be relied upon to hit the target at least once.

Football icon Lautaro Martinez 1+ Shots on Target
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Inter’s biggest threat upfront should get some chances and considering he averages 1.47 Shots on Target per 90, he can be trusted to have at least one attempt which tests the goalkeeper.

Football icon Saul Niguez to commit 2+ fouls
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Inter are the third-most fouled team in the Champions League this season and in a must win match the Atletico Madrid players are going to be seriously committed. Niguez averages 2.44 fouls per 90 and his role in midfield means he’s going to be heavily involved.

It’ll be hard for him to play clean and he’s likely to commit at least two fouls in this contest.

Football icon Mario Hermoso to commit 1+ fouls
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Both Lauraro Martinez and Marcus Thuram are two heavily fouled players and will put pressure on the Atletico Madrid defence. Hermoso averages over one foul per 90 and leads the hosts for cards obtained. At some stage he will surely play cynical and give away at least one free kick.

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Simone Inzaghi’s Inter side travel to Madrid defending a 1-0 advantage. It will be far from easy away at the Metropolitano to face an experienced Atletico side who will give it absolutely everything right until the final minute.

Diego Simeone is a tough nut to crack and this promises to be an intriguing tactical battle which could be decided by the finest of margins.

Inter have been praised for their excellent tactical setup in recent times and they have been by far the best Serie A team this season. This trip is as much about character though at such a tricky location.

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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Predicted Lineups

Griezmann a major doubt

There is a major question mark surrounding the participation of Antoine Griezmann for Atletico. The hosts have had injury problems all season and defenders Cesar Azpilicueta and Jose Maria Gimenez are out long term. Thomas Lemar is due back soon but might not be in time for this game. The Spaniards are expected to lineup in a 3-5-2 formation with Marcos Llorente and Alvaro Morata starting upfront. If Griezmann is fit then he could be an option in attack.

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First leg Inter hero suffers injury blow

Marko Arnautovic made a huge difference in the first leg coming off the bench to score the winner. His physical approach was a big boost but Inter will have to do it without him in the second leg. He came off injured at the weekend with a hamstring problem and could miss several weeks. Midfielder Carlos Augusto is another doubt after picking up a knock in the previous game. The visitors will also be in their usual 3-5-2 system and the first choice XI should not be affected. Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martinez are set to start upfront. 

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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan team stats

Accurate Atletico make the most of opportunities 

Atletico Madrid are an interesting statistical case. They average nearly two goals per game but only average 12.43 shots in each contest. They have a remarkable accuracy ratio converting that into 5.54 shots on target. It’s very much quality over quantity with Diego Simone’s men. Their defence has not been as secure this season but is still solid with xGA of 1.06. Atletico Madrid have a low average corner count and a surprisingly low card count. Their fixtures only average 4.36 cards per game this season. 

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Defence and discipline stand out for Inter

Inter Milan have sensational defensive metrics which must be respected. They have conceded an average of just 0.46 goals per game and the main reason for that is they restrict opponents to less than 2.50 shots on target. Their xGA of 0.78 is very good and pinpoints their strength. Inter average a healthy 2.50 goals per game and average over five shots on target in each fixture. They are an incredibly well disciplined side picking up just 1.36 cards per game which is an astronomically low amount for any Serie A club.

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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan shots and shots on target stats

Morata likely to hit the target

The home team only average 12.43 shots per game but are known for being quite accurate. Taking individual players to have a shot on target could be a wise option. Alvaro Morata stands out considering he averages a hefty 1.62 shots on target per 90. He can be added to your bet builder at 1.33 to test the keeper here which looks safe enough. Samuel Lino averages close to one shots on target per 90 minutes and can be backed at 2.0 in the same market. Taking Lino at 1.44 just to have two or more shots might be safer though. 

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Strike duo reliable to test the keeper

Lautaro Martinez can be a streaky striker but you can’t deny he tends to rack up the shots at over three per 90 minutes. His shots on target accuracy ratio isn’t too bad at 1.47 and he should be relied upon at odds of 1.36 to test the goalkeeper at least once. Marcus Thuram is another who averages over one shot on target per 90 minutes and can be backed at 1.44 in the same market. One player known for his shots is left wing back Federico Diarco. He’s 1.20 to fire in at least one attempt and 2.10 to try a couple of shots or more.

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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan goals and assists stats

Pressure on out-of-form Morata to deliver

If Antoine Griezmann is ruled out entirely then it will be a major blow for Atletico Madrid. He’s netted 17 goals in all competitions this season and supplied several assists. The weight of pressure is going to fall on the shoulders of Alvaro Morata who has scored five Champions League goals this term. Morata has enjoyed a stellar campaign scoring nearly 20 times across the board, although his form has dried up. With just one goal in his last ten matches can the Spaniard be relied on here? For those who like him then 3.10 is available on him to score anytime.

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Goal machine Martinez came up dry in the first leg

Inter’s leading scorer is Argentinian World Cup winner Lautaro Martinez who has racked up 23 goals this season. He missed several chances in the first leg but it is the shortest price of any player to hit the back of the net here at odds of 2.63. Marcus Thuram is more of a dual threat for both goals and assists playing a deeper role or running onto balls out wide. He can be taken at 2.60 in the ‘to score or assist’ market. It makes sense to focus on the Inter front two as they offer the most threat. 

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Atletico Madrid Cards and Fouls Stats

Saul Niguez to have a challenging evening 

Diego Simeone’s men have a reputation for being extremely dirty but they have only racked up 2.36 cards per game this season. They rank in the bottom third for cards obtained in La Liga this term and committed the fourth-fewest fouls. They have been fairly clean in the Champions League this season as well. Can this disciplined version of Atletico stand up in such a crunch match with everything on the line though? The likes of Hermoso, Saul Niguez and Morata all stand out as foul and card candidates. Niguez is 1.53 to commit two or more fouls which looks well within his reach.

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Inter are the third-most fouled team in the Champions League this season at an average of 13.60 times per game. They have capable players in transition who are tough to handle and Atletico Madrid might get sucked into making some poor decisions. Attackers like Martinez and Thuram are going to cause all sorts of issues, adding weight to perhaps Hermoso fouls or a card. Midfielder Kristjan Asllani has a high rate of drawing fouls but from more limited minutes. 

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Inter Milan Cards and Fouls Stats

Squeaky clean Inter’s discipline to be tested?

The Italian visitors have been remarkably clean this season averaging just 1.36 cards per game. The discipline applied by Simone Inzaghi on this group of players has been remarkable. Inter have yet to pick up a red card in Serie A or the Champions League but in such a high profile match there is more chance they will lose their cool. The best chance of some fouls might come from attacker Lautaro Martinez who averages 1.64 per 90 minutes. He presses a lot so the 1.17 for at least one or more foul looks safe enough.

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Atletico Madrid have only drawn two cards per game from their opponents which is a slightly surprising statistic when you consider their reputation. They’ve drawn the fourth-fewest fouls of any team in the Champions League this season and also rank low for fouls drawn in La Liga. This is not a team that wins that many cheap free kicks although Argentinian World Cup winner Rodrigo de Paul stands out as a foul magnet. He’s a master of the dark arts and a tricky customer for the Inter Milan midfield.

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