Atletico Madrid vs Liverpool
Competition: Champions League Group B
Kick Off: 8pm
Venue: Wanda Metropolitano (Madrid, Spain)
Match Betting Odds
Atletico Madrid win: 3.30
Liverpool win: 2.25
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals: 2.00
Under 2.5 Goals: 1.73
Both teams to score
BTTS Yes: 1.80
BTTS No: 2.00
Odds are accurate as of 18/10/2021 on Betfair and may be subject to change.
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I don’t think there’s any other place to start than Mohamed Salah. If you haven’t watched him this season so far then you’ve honestly missed out. I watched the Liverpool game away to Watford at the weekend and the quality he produces on the ball is something else.
7 goals in 8 matches in the Premier League, 4 assists. 3 goals in 2 matches in the Champions League too. You could argue he’s the best player in the world right now and a deserved Ballon d’Or winner.
You can currently get him at 1.25 for a shot on target in this game, 2.5 for 2+ on target. over both the Premier League and Champions League matches so far this season (10) he’s averaged 3.94 shots per 90 minutes and just under 2 shots on target – 1.97.
He has of course scored 10 goals in 10 matches and you can get him at 2.10 to score anytime but obviously, there is a greater risk than shots.
An interesting boost Betfair are offering is 2+ shots on target for each of Mohamed Salah and Liverpool’s former star man Luis Suarez from 15/2 to 9/1. Suarez at 34 is still scoring goals at the top level, 4 in 8 La Liga games this season and 1 in 2 Champions Leagues. He has only averaged 0.97 shots on target per game though over those fixtures so perhaps the stats don’t back going for that.
Liverpool to win?
Results-wise it feels like a tough one to call this, especially with Liverpool travelling away to Madrid and won’t be too fussed drawing. The bookies do have them as favourites though and I’m inclined to side with the Reds too.
They look unstoppable at the minute. Unbeaten all season in all competitions winning 8 out of 11 including 2 wins in their 2 other group games so far. They also come into this game fresh from that devastating 5-0 win away to Watford on Saturday which should ooze a load of confidence amongst the club and players.
Meanwhile, Atletico could only draw 0-0 with Porto at home in their first Champions League group match, a side Liverpool then went on to thrash 5-1 in Portugal. It’s tough to compare the difference in quality between the Premier League and La Liga statistically but Liverpool’s XG so far this season is 2.57, Athletico’s only 1.33 with teams like Osasuna and Real Sociedad having a better than that.
We also saw their frailties just a few weeks ago when they lost 1-0 to a very poor Alaves side in the league who are second-bottom and have lost all their over 6 games played.
Experienced defender Stefan Savic is also suspended for this one whilst striker Matheus Cunha has been ruled out with an injury. There have also been doubts whether defender Jose Gimenez and midfielder Marcos Llorente will be fit enough to start the match after injuries meaning Atletico could have a lot of defensive problems here.
Liverpool will have Jones and Thiago missing but looking at the predicted line ups should be strong enough to get a result in Spain with the likes of Alisson, Trent AA, Van Dijk, Robertson, Salah and Mane all expected to start. Liverpool are 2.25 to win, or a safer option of draw no bet is 1.57
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Felipe, Kondogbia, Hermoso; Trippier, De Paul, Koke, Lemar, Carrasco; Suarez, Griezmann
Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Keita; Salah, Firmino, Mane