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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
29th September
kick off 20:00 Over 4.5 Real Madrid Corners Over 4.5 Cards Connor Gallagher to Commit 2+ Fouls Jude Bellingham to Have 2+ Shots
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IN THIS ARTICLE…
Leg 1 : Over 4.5 Real Madrid cORNERS
There is an interesting statistical conundrum heading into this game. Real Madrid matches average the most corners in La Liga (10), whilst Atletico fixtures average the least (6.9). No team has obtained more flag kicks than Real Madrid though so it makes sense to look at their own individual corner line for this game. It is likely that they will have the lion’s share of possession and Atletico let them have more of the ball.
The home team won’t be too concerned about conceding corners because they have the type of personnel who can deal with balls into the box. With Kylian Mbappe ruled out of the game, there will be more emphasis on the likes of Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo on the wings which in turn might lead to more corners.
Taking the visitors to have over 4.5 corners looks a fairly straightforward task in any game and a good starting block for any Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid bet builder.
LEG 2 : Over 4.5 Cards
This is the Madrid derby so we have a naturally high card line. This is such a special fixture that it would be wise to ignore current disciplinary records for either team. With both sides unbeaten and Atletico having started the campaign quite well, the stakes seem quite high in this early season showdown.
As things happen, Atletico have received the fewest cards in La Liga so far (8) but we can expect that number to significantly rise here. Real Madrid have racked up 15 yellows and one red so far.
With the exception of the Super Cup meeting last year, all of the last five head to heads have contained at least four cards, with some of those fixtures containing a glutton of them. The referee is Mateo Busquets Ferrer who is only in his second season officiating La Liga. He averages 5.25 cards per contest and he’s dished over 4.5 out in 3 of his 4 games so far this season. Adding this to your bet builder should be fairly safe in what is normally a very feisty and spicy game.
LEG 3 : Connor Gallagher to commit 2+ Fouls
We might be early into his time at the club but Connor Gallagher and Atletico Madrid feels like a match made in heaven! He is the tenacious, hardworking and energetic type of player that their fans absolutely love. He will be champing at the bit to get involved in his first Madrid derby and it’s extremely difficult to see how he can play a clean game.
Gallagher is a very short price to commit two or more fouls, but it’s for good reason. He already averages 1.88 fouls per 90 mins for his new club but is known down the years to go well above this mark. At Chelsea last season he produced an overall average of 2.42 fouls in each game and it’s just second nature to the England international to press hard and make a nuisance of himself.
He will want to make his mark on the likes of Jude Bellingham and Aurelien Tchouameni so adding Gallagher just to commit two or more fouls looks a great Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid bet builder selection.
Leg 4 : Jude Bellingham to have 2+ Shots
The England star only averages 1.30 shots per 90 mins this season but looks like an attractive price just to have two or more attempts here. The introduction of Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid has slightly changed Jude’s role within the team. They don’t need as many goals from him this season which might explain the lower shot rate. However, in a Madrid derby with Mbappe ruled out then the tables might turn again.
We must go back to last season where he scored a massive 23 goals in all competitions and was a complete revelation in what was effectively a shadow striker role. Bellingham averaged 1.98 shots per 90 mins in La Liga in the previous campaign and with more attacking responsibility on him here then he could be one to watch to actually score anytime.
Taking Jude to have a shot on target also has appeal, but the odds on the England man just to have two shots or more are simply far too big. For the next few matches then his shot rate should naturally ride starting at the Metropolitano this weekend.
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