There is absolutely everything to play for and Denmark know they must win in order to have a chance of progressing to the last 16 of the World Cup. A draw would probably be enough for Australia, but both teams will be keeping their eye on the other group fixture.
Everything is set up for a fascinating finale in Group C to see who goes through with France into the knockout stages of the competition.
Below, you’ll be able to find everything that you’ll need to give yourself a better chance at landing a winning bet builder. Team stats such xG, corners, and shots, are accompanied by player stats such as goals, shots on target, fouls, and fouls drawn. If you need some advice about how best to use this info, then my Stats Pack Guide should steer you straight.
Predicted Lineups
Australia just beat Tunisia 1-0 and will probably remain unchanged. They have no suspensions and no reported new injuries so their system will probably be 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. Karacic came into the team at right back and did a good job, so will likely retain his place.
We know that Denmark manager Kasper Hjulmand won’t change his 3-4-3 system. Thomas Delaney is ruled out for the remainder of the World Cup with a knee injury and Mikkel Damsgaard replaced him in the team vs France.
Denmark have not played particularly well in this tournament, so there might be some changes. Centre back Simon Kjaer is a candidate to return into the XI and their lack of goals could be solved by the reappearance of Andreas Skov Olsen who was wasteful vs Tunisia.
Team Stats
Australia average a decent 2.24 goals per game which isn’t far off their xG of 1.86. They have scored in both of their World Cup matches so far and average an impressive 14.24 shots per 90 mins. Australia are not the most accurate side though with only 5.84 SOT per match.
Defensively, the Socceroos are quite solid and only conceded 0.76 goals per match and this correlates closely to their xGA of 1.18. Australia rank average numbers for corners obtained (5.28) but have not conceded many at the other end, only 2.95 per match. They tend to be involved with matches containing few cards, only picking up 1.15 per game but also only drawing 1.34 cards per 90 mins.
Denmark average 2.58 goals per match which is quite an overachievement compared to their xG of 1.79. They are also a team who have overachieved at the other end of the field, conceding just 0.42 goals per game compared to their expected xGA of 0.93. Denmark tend to be clinical when they attack, converting their 13.67 shots per 90 mins into 7.42 SOT.
Denmark only average 2.0 SOT and 3.58 corners against per match. They are normally quite defensively assured. The Scandinavian outfit are well disciplined, only receiving 1.17 cards per game. They only average 1.67 cards against which is not the highest rate.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Three players average over 2.70 shots per 90 mins, Maclaren, Mabil and Duke. By far the most accurate shooter is Maclaren, but he is not expected to start. He did however come off the bench for nearly 30 mins vs Tunisia so could be one to watch in-running. Mabil is another benchwarmer who is often brought on for his pace and physicality in the last 10-20 mins.
Of the likely starters, Mitchell Duke averages 2.72 shots per game with 1.29 SOT, which is a respectable accuracy conversion. Winger Craig Goodwin also likes a shot, 2.12 per match with an exact 50% SOT ratio.
Andreas Cornelius is by far the player who shoots the most for Denmark, averaging 3.46 per 90 mins. He converts that into 1.54 SOT. The general theme for this team is quality over quantity in terms of shooting. Damsgaard averages 2.30 shots per 90 mins and has more than a 50% SOT ratio at 1.31.
If he starts, then Andreas Skov Olsen is another player who makes the most of his shots, with a strong 1.27 SOT per match from just 1.69 shots per 90 mins. Denmark talisman Christian Eriksen is surprisingly one of the least accurate Denmark shooters, only averaging 0.48 SOT per 90 mins from 1.67 attempts per game.
Player Goals and Assists
Maclaren is the top scorer on this list with 7 goals in 11 appearances, but it seems that Mitchell Duke is more in favour right now. Duke himself has six goals and is expected to lead the line. Incredibly, Australia have a centre back third on their scoring charts. The giant defender Harry Souttar has bagged 6 goals and is a massive threat from set pieces with his frame and height.
Key playmaker Ajdin Hrustic leads Australia for assists with four, but is not fully fit. He did come off the bench and play 25 mins vs Tunisia and could be one to watch when that inevitably happens again. This is such an important match for Australia that he will be involved at some stage.
Andreas Skov Olsen and Joachim Maehle lead the scoring charts for Denmark on this list with five goals each. Mikkel Damsgaard has chipped in with two goals and is also tops the Danish assist charts with four.
Skov Olsen has supplied three assists, with Hojberg bagging a couple from nine starts. One interesting player to note is centre back Simon Kjaer who has scored two goals from 10 appearances and is a threat from set pieces.
Australia Cards
Ajdin Hrustic leads the Australia cards with three in 17 appearances but probably won’t start here. This team is not really known for its fouls and ill-discipline though.
Jackson Irvine and Harry Souttar have two cards, whilst Mathew Leckie averages 2.30 fouls per game on the right wing. Australia picked up three cards vs France, but played an exceptionally clean game against Tunisia and no players went into the book.
With Thomas Delaney now out of the World Cup, the most fouled Danish player is now striker Kasper Dolberg. He will be in some interesting tussles with the Australian defence and has good balance and agility which can help him win free kicks.
Left wing back Joachim Maehle is fouled on average 1.44 times per 90 mins and could be a handful for the Australian right hand side.
Match-Ups to watch
Harry Souttar vs Kasper Dolberg
Matthew Leckie vs Joachim Maehle
Mitchell Duke vs Simon Kjaer
Denmark Cards
No Danish player has more than two cards on this list. The player who fouls the most is target man striker Andreas Cornelius who on average commits a caution 2.86 times per 90 mins. He is a very physical player and some referees won’t like his style.
Goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel has two cards in 12 appearances and if Denmark are winning then watch out for some potential time wasting.
Rasmus Kristensen averages 1.76 fouls per 90 mins and tends to get really stuck in on the right wing. The problem is he was booked in the first match vs Tunisia and is walking a tightrope. It was noticeable how cautious he was vs France in the second group game.
No Australian player gets fouled more than 1.26 times on average per 90 mins. Hrustic tops the list at 1.26 but this squad lacks the flair and technical skills required to regularly draw fouls and cards.
They did lure Tunisia into three cards but that was partially down to the frustrations of the African outfit. Australia have players capable of getting in your face and they will compete, but the stats suggest we shouldn’t expect too many Danish fouls or cards.
Match-Ups to watch:
Andreas Christensen vs Mitchell Duke
Rasmus Kristensen vs Craig Goodwin
Joachim Maehle vs Matthew Leckie
