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Barcelona vs Bayern Munich
23rd October
kick off 20:00 Bayern Munich To Have 5+ Shots On Target Over 4.5 Bayern Munich Corners Michael Olise to have 1+ Shots on Target Michael Olise To Commit 1+ Fouls
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Leg 1: Bayern Munich to Have 5+ Shots On Target
This is a mark which looks easily achievable for a Bayern Munich side that boasts one of the world’s most talented attacking units. The German giants have hit at least seven shots on target in all but two of their 10 games in all competitions so far this season and have the personnel to exploit Hansi Flick’s high defensive line.
Serge Gnabry will offer pace that can spring the hosts’ offside trap, whilst Harry Kane remains one of the most deadly finishers on the planet.
Barcelona have been impressive to start the season, but they have proven vulnerable at times, demonstrated most obviously in their 4-2 defeat at the hands of Osasuna. Flick’s side have had a favourable set of opening fixtures, but have still allowed four or more shots on target in five of their 12 games this season.
Bayern pose the toughest test of any side they have seen under their new coach, something not helped by Vincent Kompany’s side needing a statement win after being beaten by Aston Villa on matchday 2. We anticipate an open, fast-paced game with plenty of chances for both sides, which would offer favourable conditions for this selection to land.
Leg 2: Over 4.5 Bayern Munich Corners
Another area where the visitors look to have been underestimated by the bookies is the corner markets. Bayern have hit at least six corners in eight of their nine games in the Bundesliga and Champions League so far this season, yet they sit just under evens to have only five or more here.
Vincent Kompany’s side have averaged 7.78 corners per game in all competitions this season, and would have seen this bet land in six of their last seven games in all competitions. Both Champions League games so far this season have seen Bayern go over double digits for corners taken, taking 12 against Dinamo Zagreb at home and 11 away against Aston Villa.
Barcelona, meanwhile, have conceded plenty of corners this season, allowing five or more in eight of their 12 games in all competitions. They allowed 10 at home to Monaco in their Champions League opener, albeit playing with 10 men, and even allowed Young Boys to hit three last time out.
With Barcelona averaging 5.25 corners conceded per game from a relatively straightforward set of fixtures, it would be no surprise to see Bayern take at least five here.
Leg 3: Michael Olise to Have 1+ Shots on Target
By far the best option for either side for a shot on target in this game comes in the form of Bayern Munich’s marquee summer signing, ex-Crystal Palace man, Michael Olise.
The right-winger has settled into life in Bavaria seamlessly, leading his new employers to publicly claim that they signed a “£100m player” for £50m. He is averaging more shots on target per 90 in the Bundesliga than any other player for Bayern, including Harry Kane, with 1.89.
Olise has now had a shot on target in eight straight starts for his new club, hitting at least two shots on target in four of his last seven. He has also scored six goals across these last seven games, so he should be full of confidence heading into an away game against Barcelona that will be one of the biggest of his career to date.
As mentioned above, we expect Bayern to be well up for this game and to put Barcelona’s young defenders under pressure throughout, all of which should open up opportunities for their forwards. Based on Olise’s Bayern career to date, if he gets a couple of chances, he will almost certainly test the keeper at least once.
lEG 4: Michael Olise To Commit 1+ Fouls
We are returning to Olise in the fouls markets too, where the 22-year-old offers fantastic value at 1.53 to foul at least once in the game. The France international has committed a foul in five of his last seven starts for Bayern Munich. He has been involved in 23 duels in the Champions League to date but has won just 39.1% of these.
Olise has also fouled three times across his two Champions League starts so far, and he will be all too aware of his defensive duties tonight when coming up against what has been a free-scoring Barcelona side here.
His matchup is a strong one, facing off against Barcelona left-back Alejandro Balde. The young Spaniard has been given a licence to get forward as much as possible by Hansi Flick, which will drag Olise back into uncomfortable defensive situations.
Balde has won 2.82 fouls per 90 in La Liga, second only to Lamine Yamal in a Barcelona shirt. He has now won a foul in eight straight starts for the club. With Raphinha also playing down this flank, Olise will have to get stuck in defensively, which makes a foul even more likely.
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