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Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
17th April
kick off 20:00 Kai Havertz to commit 2+ fouls
Averages 1.74 fouls per 90 and a constant reliable option to commit offences in his role as a pressing forward in this Arsenal team.
Noussair Mazroui to commit 1+ foulsHe averages 1.20 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season and facing Bukayo Saka who draws over two fouls and is regularly targeted.
Bukayo Saka to have 1+ shots on targetThe England attacker averages around one shots on target per 90 and looks overpriced here. Scored in the first leg and will be on penalty taking duty which increases his chances of a shot on target.
Gabriel to have 1+ shotsArsenal have targeted set pieces this season and Gabriel Magalhaes is a massive threat from them. He averages around one shot per 90 which is really high for any defender. Can rise high above opponents and likely to have an attempt somewhere on the night, probably from a header.
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Arsenal take a 2-2 draw to the Allianz Arena for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final with Bayern Munich. The Bavarians will be hungry to change the narrative after their 11-season streak of Bundesliga titles was ended by Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend.
The Gunners were architects of their own downfall at times in the first leg and Mikel Arteta will be keen for them to put in a more convincing defensive display to increase their chances of reaching the last four.
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Bayern Munich vs Arsenal PREDICTED LINEUPS
Davies and Gnabry blow for Bayern
Bayern have Alphonso Davies suspended, while Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman are ruled out injured. Moroccan international Noussair Mazraoui should therefore feature at left back although Raphael Guerreiro is another option. In attack, Thomas Tuchel will have to choose between the likes of Mathys Tel or Thomas Muller. Konrad Laimer and Aleksandar Pavlovic will be battling it out for a midfield slot.
Odegaard and Saka doubts for Arsenal
The visitors have no major injury concerns. Bukayo Saka must be continually monitored after he was seen limping off again at the weekend but he should start on the right-hand side of the Gunners’ attack. Most of the team picks itself in their normal 4-3-3 system but there are spots open on the left-hand side. Gabriel Martinelli is in a battle with Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard, while in defence Takehiro Tomiyasu is expected to get the nod. Captain Martin Odegaard is a major injury doubt.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal TEAM STATS
Bayern continue to fire in the shots
Bayern’s underlying metrics are impressive. One surprising stat is their xGA of 0.91 per game but they have underachieved defensively conceding nearly 1.24 in each fixture. Bayern average nearly 20 shots per contest which is a mega-high amount. They only managed 8 attempts in the first leg though. Similar to Arsenal, they also average a high number of corners (7.28) and a low number of cards overall.
Gunners defensive metrics are rock solid
Arsenal’s metrics are immense. Their most impressive stats are at the back where their xGA of 0.69 is absolutely rock solid. The Gunners have conceded just 2.16 shots on target per game which is extraordinarily low. Arsenal also have plenty of attacking firepower averaging 2.34 goals per game. Corners are very high in Arsenal fixtures with cards on the low side.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET
Value on attacking trio to shoot
Bayern average nearly 20 shots per match but have not always enjoyed the greatest accuracy. In their toughest recent fixtures vs Leverkusen, Lazio away and Dortmund at home, Thomas Tuchel’s men failed to score. Last week they scored twice but only registered two shots on target. Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala are both priced at 1.44 to have two or more shots which looks mighty generous in a home game for Bayern.
Spot on Saka value to hit the target
The Gunners have been full of goals since the start of 2024 but it might be better to look at the shots market rather than shots on target. Gabriel Magalhaes is a menace from set pieces and at 1.67 to have a single effort looks mighty big. Bukayo Saka to have one or more shots on target could be worth considering at odds of 1.62, especially as he is on penalty duty. Gabriel Jesus tops the season’s averages for shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, but his time on the field could be limited which makes him a dangerous option to back.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal GOALS AND ASSISTS Stats
Kane to be Arsenal’s bane again?
Former Spurs player Harry Kane will command a lot of attention in this match. He scored at the Emirates Stadium in the first leg and is priced at 2.10 to do the same again here. He is tempting bet builder material. Kane has scored 15 career goals in 18 appearances vs Arsenal and hasn’t been without his strong moments against the Gunners. Sane (2.30) and Musiala (2.88) to score or assist could also be worth looking at amongst the Bayern players.
Saka’s overall threat is obvious
Bukayo Saka is Arsenal’s biggest threat both in terms of goalscoring but also assisting. He should be on penalty taking duty which adds to his threat. The England attacker is priced at 2.50 in the ‘to score or assist’ market which looks very generous. Kai Havertz could be considered in the same market at 2.80.
Bayern Munich CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Saka to cause Mazraoui problems
Bayern have the best disciplinary record in the Bundesliga and obtained just 1.59 cards on average per game. They only average 9.50 fouls in each contest which is also very low. In the Champions League, the Bavarians have only picked up 12 cards in 9 games and they have kept their discipline remarkably well. Nobody really stands out too much apart from Konrad Laimer in midfield. Leroy Sane could perhaps give away a cheap free kick or two in a safe area of the field.
Arsenal have drawn an average of around 11 fouls per game in the Champions League this season. Bukayo Saka is regularly targeted and can be a foul magnet along with Kai Havertz. Noussair Mazraoui could be filling in for the suspended Alphonso Davies here and should be considered at odds of 1.40 to commit at least one infringement. He has a difficult matchup and does average 1.20 fouls per 90 minutes in the Champions League this season.
Arsenal CARDS AND FOULS STATS
High-pressing Kai offers foul value
Mikel Arteta’s men have been very clean this season and obtained the fewest cards of any team in the Premier League. They average only 1.66 cards per game and are well drilled with discipline. Arsenal also have a low foul average domestically, although do average 13 per game in the Champions League. Kai Havertz is usually a safe bet to commit two or more fouls. His persistent pressing nature often leads to cheap free kicks being given away. Odds of 1.57 on him committing two or more fouls look great bet builder material.
Bayern have only been fouled just over 9 times on average in the Champions League this season. That figure is still very low even in the Bundesliga. The match dynamics are perhaps different here but this isn’t a team that tends to win that many cheap free kicks. Harry Kane is a physical centre forward who might get some rough treatment from Arsenal. Jamal Musiala is a tricky individual and fouled over twice per 90 minutes on average. Thomas Muller is experienced enough to know when to win free kicks as well.
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