A new era dawns in Bavaria today when Thomas Tuchel takes charge of Bayern Munich for the very first time in a crucial Der Klassiker clash with his old employers, Borussia Dortmund.
While any encounter between Germany’s two biggest teams comes heavily wrapped in intrigue, this evening’s showdown feels especially significant with champions Bayern and challengers Dortmund going head-to-head for the Bundesliga title.
Below, I’ve laid out the statistical lowdown for today’s titanic German tussle, which should arm you with everything you need to attack the bet builder markets with venom. Use the info below alongside the tips in my Stats Pack Guide to boost your chances of success.
Predicted Lineups
It’s a tricky task to accurately predict Thomas Tuchel’s first Bayern Munich XI, though January signing Jan Sommer is certain to play in goal with first-choice stopper Manuel Neuer still injured. With Jamal Musiala rated as doubtful, Bavarian icon Thomas Muller could get the nod at number ten.
Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman could be deployed as wingers with veteran hitman Eric Choupo-Moting leading the line. Skipper Joshua Kimmich should anchor midfield alongside his compatriot Leon Goretzka, as long as the latter shakes off a knock in time to feature.
Dortmund coach Edin Terzic is expected to stick with his preferred 4-3-3 formation at the Allianz Arena with Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Sule set to continue at centre-half ahead of former Bayern man, Mats Hummels.
Raphael Guerreiro looked reborn as a midfielder before the international break and he could stay in the middle this evening beside Emre Can and Jude Bellingham. Winter signing Julian Ryerson could keep hold of his spot at left-back in that scenario.
Team Stats
Few would have predicted that Bayern Munich would be playing catch-up in the Bundesliga title race in April, though the defending champions will kick-off today’s game one point and one place behind leaders Dortmund.
Recently-axed boss Julian Nagelsmann was often criticised for his tactical tinkering, though the Bavarians’ stats for the campaign would suggest he didn’t do a whole lot wrong. Bayern have been outperforming Dortmund across pretty much every metric you can muster in 2022/23 and having won eight of their last nine encounters with their biggest rivals, the hosts look good value at 40/85 to start Thomas Tuchel’s rein with a win later on.
Dortmund pocketed 27 points from a possible 30 in the Bundesliga in the run up to the recent international break, and only Bayern have bested them for shots and shots on target per 90 this term. Some of Dortmund’s attacking football has been impressively incisive since the new year and at 1/2 to register four or more shots on target today, they look like good value.
BVB have also been clocking up more corners than Bayern in 2022/23 and they won 7 of them to the Bavarians’ four when the teams last met in October. Dortmund could interest a few of you at 11/10 to take advantage of a +2.0 corners handicap this evening.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
With Bayern averaging just under 19 shots per 90 in the Bundesliga this term, it isn’t surprising to see so many top individual Die Roten performers in their ranks, with Leroy Sane, Thomas Muller, Eric Choupo-Moting and Kingsley Coman have all keeping their output in the final third high across the campaign.
Sane tops the pile in Munich for accuracy however, and the winger is 4/11 to register at least one shot on target today. Der Klassiker veteran Thomas Muller is available at an identical price in the same market.
Marco Reus, Sebastian Haller and Donyell Malen combined to great effect as a trio in Dortmund’s 6-1 win against Cologne just before the international break when all three attackers managed to lodge two shots on target each in that rout.
Malen (1.35 SOT p90) and Reus (0.66) share a 4/9 price in the 1+ shots on target stakes this evening, though Dutch international Malen, who has clocked at least one accurate attempt in eight of his last ten appearances for Dortmund, is the option that piques my interest the most.
Player Goals and Assists
With 17 goals in 19 starts in the Bundesliga, Champions League and DFB Pokal this season, Eric Choupo-Moting has had a golden touch for Bayern in 2022/23 and the veteran Cameroonian international looks a steal at even money to impact the scoresheet anytime again this evening.
Thomas Muller meanwhile, has played in more Klassikers (24) than any other outfield player for one club and his record of 15 goals in those games makes for impressive reading. Muller is 8/13 to either score or assist against Dortmund again today.
The spread of goals across Dortmund’s squad has been healthy this season, though the absences of two of their three leading marksmen, Julian Brandt and Youssouf Moukoko, feels significant today. However, 33-year-old Marco Reus has been doing his utmost to pick up the slack in their absence.
‘Rolls Reus’ has chipped in with five goals and two assists in his last seven appearances for Dortmund in all comps and the BVB icon has notched give goal contributions in previous meetings with Bayern. Reus is 13/10 to grab another Klassiker goal or assist later today.
Player passes
Bayern Munich eclipsed the rest of the Bundesliga for average possession under Nagelsmann and that trend should continue against renowned ball retention fan, Thomas Tuchel. The champions controlled 56.1% of the proceedings against Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park in October and that figure could be even higher today back in Munich.
Each member of Bayern’s back four that day, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Matthijs De Ligt and Alphonso Davies played north of 80 passes and all four defenders would be a savvy inclusion on your bet builder coupon today in the 70 to 90 passes ranges.
Dortmund will be content to sit and wait for counter-attacking opportunities today and their possession stats come full time could be low as a consequence. No BVB player made more than 55 passes when they last visited the Allianz Arena almost exactly a year ago, and modest numbers are expected across the board again this evening.
Nico Schlotterbeck’s cultured left foot deserves some attention, however. The 23-year-old is the archetypal modern centre back, unruffled on the ball and capable of starting moves from the back. Schlotterbeck might fall short of his average for the campaign (73.3 passes per 90), though he should clear 50 passes with room to spare.
Bayern Munich Cards
The midfield battleground should be busy this evening with a number of aggressive combatants sharing the same small spaces in Munich. Bayern’s Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka in particular, will be keen to assert their authority against their yellow-clad counterparts.
Goretzka, who committed three fouls in the reverse fixtures, is of interest at 11/10 to give away at least two fouls again today, while Kimmich looks the part at 23/20 to earn his seventh Bundesliga caution of the campaign. Benjamin Pavard is another coupon-filling option at 4/11 in the 1+ fouls stakes. The Frenchman (1.0 fouls p/90) gave away one free kick against Dortmund in October.
Jude Bellingham is a superb ball carrier in midfield, though the wonderkid tends to draw foul after foul during his rampaging runs. The England star’s clash with Joshua Kimmich today could produce fouls and cards in both directions. Similarly, Emre Can and Leon Goretzka will be ready to butt heads nearby.
Marco Reus’s speed of thought and the timing of his runs could trouble Benjamin Pavard, who often leans on fouls to bail him out when beaten for pace on Bayern’s right flank.
Match-Ups to watch
Joshua Kimmich vs Jude Bellingham
Benjamin Pavard vs Marco Reus
Leon Goretzka vs Emre Can
Borussia Dortmund Cards
Focus on Dortmund’s side of things should also zero in on what should be a heated midfield warzone where Jude Bellingham and Emre Can have enough bite to commit at least two fouls each at even money and 1/2 respectively.
Both players get through a lot of dirty work when Dortmund are out of possession, so expect that hard-hitting pair to ruffle some Bayern feathers. Julian Ryerson could be an interesting inclusion at right back. The Norwegian will experience a Der Klassiker fixture for the first time today and with nervousness a factor, he could be a useful option at 1/4 to sin just once in Munich.
Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka have been fouled 1.55 and 0.88 times per 90 this season, and both keystone midfielders should have bruises to nurse following their encounters with Dortmund’s Bellingham and Can later on.
Wing wizard Kingsley Coman (fouled 1.37 times per 90), who is one of the toughest players to defend against in one-on-one situations in world football, will fancy his chances of giving Julian Ryerson the run-around near the touchline. Ryerson might be drawn into a desperate lunge or two in his attempts to limit Coman’s influence.
Match-Ups to watch
Jude Bellingham vs Joshua Kimmich
Emre Can vs Leon Goretzka
Julian Ryerson vs Kingsley Coman
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
What a game we have on our hands here. And I’ve got a an article on betting.betfair for the game with some of my 8/1 bet builder picks.
You can load them below.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
31st March
kick off 17:30 Over 2.5 Goals
Click link below for research…
Leroy Sane 1+ shots on targetClick link below for research…
Jude Bellingham 1+ shotsClick link below for research…
Emre Can to be shown a cardClick link below for research…
