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Bayern Munich vs Lazio
5th March
kick off 20:00 Lazio 3+ shots on target
Lazio hit this mark in the first leg, taking 11 shots in total, they have also had 3+ shots on target in 5 of their last 6 in all competitions.
Bayern’s opponents have hit 3+ shots on target in nine of their last 11 games, and in all of their last 5 games.
Over 2.5 Lazio cards Lazio have seen 3+ cards in 8 of their last 10 league games.
They average 2.81 cards per game but this has shot up to 4.90 per game in their last 10 league games.
Mathys Tel 1+ shots on target Tel averages 1.78 shots on target per 90 this season and he has had a shot on target in 3 of his last 5 Bayern starts.
He scored and had 2 shots on target on Friday evening against Freiburg.
Matteo Guendouzi to be fouled 1+ timesGuendouzi averages 1.30 fouls won per 90 in a Lazio shirt this season.
He won 3 fouls in the first leg and has won 2+ fouls in 4 of his last 5 Lazio games.
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The Champions League returns on Tuesday as Lazio and Bayern go head-to-head at the Allianz Arena in Munich.
The German champions find themselves 1-0 down on aggregate after a poor showing in the first leg in Rome when Dayot Upamecano’s reckless challenge on Gustav Isaksen saw the French centre-back sent off and a penalty awarded, which was, of course, converted by Ciro Immobile.
Bayern had more shots but Lazio had the better of the chances overall and the Italian side will probably be disappointed to only have a 1-0 lead to take into the second leg. After withstanding a few good chances from Bayern in the first half the second half was all Lazio, and Maurizio Sarri and his players will be starting to believe they can pull off the upset heading into this game.
For Thomas Tuchel and his players, out of the DFB Pokal and now trailing an inspired Leverkusen side by 10 points with just 10 games remaining in the Bundesliga, the Champions League is becoming their only realistic prospect for silverware this season.
They will be desperate to turn this one around, whilst Lazio have proven they have the tools to hurt Bayern, especially on the break. This should be a cracking contest and one with plenty of intriguing betting angles.
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Bayern Munich vs Lazio Predicted Lineups
Something has to change at Bayern
Results have been poor lately, but the players on the pitch are likely to remain as they were against Freiburg at the weekend. Joshua Kimmich is once again playing at right back, with Aleksandar Pavlovic taking his place in defensive midfield alongside Leon Goretzka. Mathys Tel will keep his spot with Leroy Sane still injured, with the remainder of the forward line made up by usual suspects Jamal Musiala, Thomas Muller and Harry Kane. Dayot Upamecano is suspended, but Eric Dier would likely have got the nod anyway even if the Frenchman could have played.
Lazio to go back to full strength
The team for this one is likely to be the same XI that started the first leg. That means four changes from the side that lost 1-0 to Milan and saw three players sent off on Friday evening. Luca Pelligrini will be benched in favour of Elseid Hysaj at left back, Danilo Cataldi will return in central midfield for Matias Vecino and in the forward line Gustav Isaksen and Ciro Immobile will be back in at right-wing and striker for Mattia Zaccagni and Valentin Castellanos respectively.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Team Stats
Bayern’s defensive struggles laid bare in first leg
The German champions have won just one of their last five games in all competitions, and across the entire season have conceded 3.08 shots on target per game. Their last 11 games have seen this get even worse, conceding 4.09 shots on target per game; their opponents hit three or more shots on target in nine of that 11. Lazio had three shots on target in the first game, primarily from counter-attacks. Bayern will dominate the ball but Lazio will have chances, so backing them to have three or more shots on target at 1.67 looks a very appealing option.
Cards likely to stack up for the visitors
Lazio may only average 2.81 cards per game across the season, however that does not tell the full story. The side from the Italian capital have now seen at least three cards in eight of their last 10 Serie A games, and last time out against Milan, Lazio were shown five yellow cards and three red cards. Across their last 10 league games they have averaged 4.9 cards per game. Backing them to see over 2.5 cards at 1.67 looks a very solid option for a Bayern Munich v Lazio bet builder.
BAYERN MUNICH vs Lazio Shots and shots on target stats
Rare start for Mathys Tel offers solid value
The 18-year-old Frenchman has made 30 appearances for Bayern this season, but just five have been starts. He has shown plenty of promise nonetheless, racking up seven goals and four assists in all competitions. Tel averages 4.99 shots per 90, with 1.78 of those being on target, and in his five starts he has had two or more shots on target on three occasions. He scored against Freiburg on Friday, with both of his two shots being on target. He will be feeling confident and hoping to impress the manager in a must-win game, so backing him to have at least one shot on target at odds of 1.36 looks a nice option.
Solid value available on Isaksen
The Danish right-winger has really made the position his own in the Lazio side in 2024. The Dane averages 0.62 shots on target and 1.65 shots per 90 for the season, solid numbers but his recent run as a starter is where his shooting numbers have increased significantly. Of the last six starts in which Isaksen has played over 45 minutes, he has averaged 2.05 shots and 1.02 shots on target per 90. He had three shots with one on target in the first leg and can be backed to take two or more shots at 1.83, a great price considering his recent form.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Goals and Assists Stats
Jamal Musiala the man in form
21-year-old sensation Jamal Musiala has gone under the radar at Bayern this season, mostly because of Harry Kane’s ridiculous goalscoring record, but he is having a stellar season. Bang in form right now having scored or assisted in each of his last three games (two goals and an assist), Musiala scored a beautiful solo goal against Freiburg on Friday and may need to pull offsomething similar here to break down what is likely to be a determined Lazio defence. You can back Musiala to score or assist at 2.10, by far the best value offered on any Bayern player in this market.
Luis Alberto offers nice longshot value
Lazio’s Spanish veteran showed his class on multiple occasions in the first leg, not least by picking Dayot Upamecano’s pocket and unleashing a beautiful through ball that Gustav Isaksen should have converted. He had two shots and four passes leading directly to shots against Bayern, making him a huge goal or assist threat. If Lazio can get themselves on the scoresheet here, it seems likely Alberto will be involved. He has three goal involvements in his last three games for Lazio and can be backed to score or assist here at 4.50, a very tempting longshot option.
Bayern Munich Cards and Fouls Stats
Nice value on Dier in the fouls markets
So far since his January move to Bayern, Eric Dier has committed 1.07 fouls per 90, the fourth-highest of any likely Bayern starters. Dier did not feature in the first leg but did commit four fouls against Leverkusen in February, alongside a foul in his last start against Freiburg. Tasked with keeping tabs on Ciro Immobile and Felipe Anderson, both of whom rank amongst the top five most fouled Lazio players, Dier is likely to have his hands full when Lazio break, so backing him to commit a foul at 1.50 offers solid value.
Hard to ignore Matteo Guendouzi
Whilst his 1.30 fouls won per 90 is good enough it is only fourth-highest amongst Lazio players, the numbers have shot up recently, Guendouzi has won fouls in four of his last five Lazio games. He has won two or more fouls in each of those four games, including when he was fouled three times in the first leg. Available at 1.44 to be fouled once, this looks to be the best value bet available for the entire game, and those looking to boost their odds may consider backing him to win two or more fouls for the fifth time in six games at 3.20.
Lazio Cards and Fouls Stats
Great value on Elseid Hysaj
The Albanian full back has been in and out of the side in recent weeks, starting just four of his last nine Lazio appearances. Despite this, he has not let up with the fouls, committing one in seven of his last nine, all the while never playing more than 69 minutes. Hysaj will be tasked with keeping Mathys Tel quiet, the Frenchman having drawn 1.43 fouls per 90 so far this season, the second-highest in the Bayern side. Available at 1.44 to commit a foul, Hysaj offers excellent value here.
Aleksandar Pavlovic in for a big test
Pavlovic only made his Champions League debut in November and he must now start in a must-win game that will effectively see Bayern’s season end at full time if they cannot progress to the quarter-finals. The 19-year-old German will be a key part of the midfield battle, and his ability to win fouls (1.23 per 90) will be important for Bayern to keep control. He has won a foul in five of his last six Bayern games, and in four of his last five starts. Up against a foul-happy Danilo Cataldi, Pavlovic can be backed to win a foul here at 1.44.
