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Bayern Munich vs PSG Bet Builder Stats Pack

Bayern Munich vs PSG Bet Builder Stats Pack Featured Image

Bayern Munich and PSG meet in Bavaria this evening for the closing chapter of their showpiece Round of 16 double-header in the Champions League, and with a slender one-goal advantage to protect, the German hosts are favourites to prevail at the Parisians’ expense.

A single strike from ex-PSG academy starlet Kingsley Coman was enough to separate the sides in France last month, though entertainment levels are expected to crank up a few notches in today’s second leg when both teams pursue a place in the quarter-finals with gusto.

I’ve compiled an info-laden stats pack for this evening’s clash between two of the continent’s heavyweights below, which should equip you with everything you need to construct savvy bet builders for the game. It’s also worth your while to read my Stats Pack Guide which is a handy reference point for newcomers.

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Predicted Lineups

With right-back Noussair Mazraoui already injured, Benjamin Pavard’s sending off in Paris last month was far from ideal and Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann might switch from a back four to a back three to compensate for his defensive absentees. Josip Stanic would be drafted into the XI in that scenario.

Sadio Mane came off the bench at the weekend and the Senegalese star could be kept in reserve again today as he builds up his match fitness. Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala and Eric Choupo-Moting could get the nod in attack.

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The biggest piece of team news out of the PSG camp this week concerned Neymar’s injury and the Brazilian will miss the rest of the season following surgery on an ankle complaint. With Neymar out of action, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi should be paired in attack as a duo this evening.

Behind them, Marco Verratti is free to feature again following his Ligue 1 suspension and the Italian could be joined in midfield by Fabian Ruiz and Vitinha. Danilo Pereira, Sergio Ramos and Marquinhos should be re-united as a central defensive trio at the back.

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Team Stats

Bayern Munich have been posting the kind of dominant domestic stats that you’d expect from a team chasing their 11th Bundesliga crown on the spin, however, the German champions have dropped points in nine of their 23 league fixtures this term, and they are embroiled in a genuine-looking title race for the first time in years this season.

In the Champions League, sailing has been smoother however, and Bayern have hit more shots (17.9) and shots on target (8.4) than any other outfit in the competition so far. The Bavarians mustered a huge 18 attempts to PSG’s nine in Paris last month, though they also committed twice as many fouls as their hosts (18-9). In typical fashion, Bayern also won the corner count by five to four, and they are priced at 4/7 to repeat that feat later on today in the second leg.

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At a glance, PSG’s underlying stats for the campaign would suggest they are purring along quite nicely, however, many of their actual performances have been frustratingly flat, and there have been indications in France that Head Coach Christophe Galtier might even lose his job if Paris St. Germain lose in Munich tonight.

PSG haven’t been cutting the mustard on the continent either, where they have been hitting a modest 12.9 shots per game and conceding just as many at the other end (12.4). The Parisians clocked a disappointing xG of just 1.0 in last month’s first leg against Bayern Munich, and they might have conceded more goals themselves had the visitors been more clinical with their seven attempts on target. PSG are priced at 4/9 to concede six or more accurate shots again today.

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Player Shots and Shots on Target

With 18 attempts, seven on target and just one goal in Paris, much of Bayern’s good work went unrewarded in the first leg. Ex-PSG striker Eric Choupo-Moting, Joshua Kimmich and Kingsley Coman all managed to muster four attempts each in the French capital, with each member of that trio hitting the target with two strikes each.

Skipper Joshua Kimmich looks decent value again at 10/11 to have two or more shots in the second leg, while winger Coman, who is 4/11 to register 1+ strikes on target, should also turn heads. Bayern’s spearhead Eric Choupo-Moting meanwhile, can be added to coupons at 4/6 to rack up at least another two efforts on target – though it is worth noting that he has only done that once in a game since Christmas (vs PSG).

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Since making his comeback from injury off the bench against Bayern Munich last month, Kylian Mbappe has hit four, four and three shots on target in successive starts for PSG and he has looked sharp enough to make him a strong candidate to hit 2+ shots on target this evening at 11/10.

Lionel Messi was unable to impact play all that much in Paris back in February, and with washy odds attached to him in the shot markets this evening, it might be better to consider alternatives. Marquinhos is a real menace during set pieces and the Brazilian defender had an attempt on target against Bayern in the first leg. The centre-half is of interest at 5/6 to lodge 1+ attempts later today.

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Player Goals and Assists

20-year-old Jamal Musiala has been a hurricane of productivity in the Bundesliga this season, though the youngster has yet to score in the Champions League this term. Former PSG academy member Kingsley Coman, who netted the winner last month, has developed a habit of scoring against his old club. Coman famously notched the only goal in the UCL final against the Parisians back in 2020, and the 26-year-old is priced generously at 12/5 to do some more damage against his compatriots today.

Similarly, former PSG striker Eric Choupo-Moting found the net in two of his last three appearances against the Ligue 1 giants, and he might have scored another last month had he made more of his 0.5 xG in the first leg. The 33-year-old is backable at 13/10 to register anytime this evening.

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The fit and firing again Kylian Mbappe has scored a mammoth 40 goals in 60 Champions League appearances during his career and the 24-year-old has notched seven of those in this season’s iteration. In a PSG team that is heavily reliant on him, Lionel Messi and Neymar (injured) to produce moments of magic, Mbappe jumps off the page as the best PSG option in the anytime scorer stakes today at 7/5. The rapid forward has scored five times in three starts since his return to the fold.

Lionel Messi, who has claimed 16 assists in the Champions League and Ligue 1 combined this term, seems likelier to part the Bayern defence with a pass than to sprint beyond the German’s backline himself, and the veteran attacker is 10/11 to create another goal this evening.

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Player passes

Bayern Munich controlled 53.8% of the possession in Paris last month, so expect the German champions to dominate most of the ball again in this evening’s second leg in Munich.

Joshua Kimmich (78) Dayot Upamecano (69) and Matthijs de Ligt (63) were among those to contribute most to Bayern’s 588 passes haul in France and all three of those defensively-leaning combatants could improve on those numbers in the second leg. Look to the 70+ pass market again where Kimmich (2/9), Upamecano (3/10) and de Ligt (8/15) should all perform well.

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Marco Verratti (61), Sergio Ramos (64), Vitinha (61) and Marquinhos (45) all fell well short of their lofty passes per 90 averages for the campaign in Paris last month, and with PSG expected to see even less of the ball in the second leg, their distribution figures should be modest again.

Digging out some value is tricky as a consequence, with players like Verratti as short as 1/5 to hit a really big 70+ passes target this evening. Dropping down to the 50+ passes range earns you inconsequential odds of 1/20 for Sergio Ramos and 1/8 for Vitinha, while Marquinhos is 1/9 in the same market.

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Bayern Munich Cards

Benjamin Pavard was the only Bayern Munich player to have his name taken by the officials in last month’s first leg, but while the Bavarians don’t tend to collect many cautions (12 in seven UCL fixtures), they are masters at small tactical fouls, and they racked up a huge 18 of those in Paris.

Their chief offenders (alongside the suspended Pavard – 3 fouls) were Mathis De Ligt (3), Jamal Musiala (2), Leon Goretzka (2), and even Serge Gnabry (2) from the bench.

They’re priced at 1.25, 1.50, 1.17, and 1.20 respectively to commit 1 or more fouls this evening.

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Midfield orchestrator Marco Verratti is routinely singled out for some rough treatment due to his ability on the ball and Joshua Kimmich could have a remit to unsettle the Italian this evening.

Nuno Mendes (fouled 1.49 times p/90) has the speed and running power to test converted wingback Kingsley Coman, who never looks all the at comfortable while performing his defensive duties, while the abrasive Sergio Ramos’s clash with powerhouse striker Eric Choupo-Moting has the potential to spawn plenty of skirmishes.

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Match-Ups to watch

Joshua Kimmich vs Marco Verratti

Kingsley Coman vs Nuno Mendes

Eric Choupo-Moting vs Sergio Ramos

PSG Cards

PSG committed just eight fouls but collected two cards when they faced Bayern Munich last month, and while they aren’t likely to match the Germans for tactical fouls again this evening, they do have some hotter heads in their ranks that might lose their cool if things don’t go their way.

Marco Verratti has already been carded four times in just six Champions League starts this season and the diminutive midfielder should have plenty of opportunities to bite into some tackles in Munich. The 30-year-old is priced 5/6 to see yellow again.

Wing-back Nordi Mukiele meanwhile, has been committing a hefty 3.6 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season and the 25-year-old could be a useful addition at 2/5 to commit one or more later on. Similarly, Spaniard Fabian Ruiz (2.2 fouls p/90 in UCL) is great value at 4/6 in the same market.

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Jamal Musiala’s collection of bumps and bruises has risen alongside his reputation in Germany, and the 20-year-old is also Bayern’s joint-most fouled player in the UCL this season alongside Joshua Kimmich and Kingsley Coman (1.7 each). Musiala could find himself on Marco Verratti’s radar today.

On the flank, Alphonso Davies’s searing pace could trouble potent foul merchant Nordi Mukiele, while the aforementioned Joshua Kimmich faces a physical encounter in midfield against Fabian Ruiz. When Kimmich gets himself the ball, expect Ruiz to be right on his case.

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Match-Ups to watch

Marco Verratti vs Jamal Musiala

Nordi Mukiele vs Alphonso Davies

Fabian Ruiz vs Joshua Kimmich

My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack

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Here’s a few picks of the pack that I liked the look of when compiling all the data. Take a look at the selections and load them into your betslip in one click.

Bayern Munich vs PSG

Calendar 8th March
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Kylian Mbappe 1+ shots on target
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Mbappe averages 2.43 shots on target p/90 in the league.

He has hit 4, 4, and 3, in his last 3 games.

He managed one on target in just 33 minutes of playing time vs Bayern.

Football icon Kingsley Coman 1+ shots on target
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Coman racked up four shots, and 2 on target in the first leg.

He averages 0.93 shots on target p/90 in the league, from 2.99 shots.

Coman netted the winner last month, and has a reputation for scoring against his former club, famously scoring the only goal in the 2020 UCL Final.

Football icon Matthijs de Ligt to commit 1+ fouls
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De Ligt committed 3 fouls in the first leg.

He averages 1.08 fouls p/90 in the league.

Up against Lionel Messi who draws 1.56 fouls p/90.

Messi was fouled 5 times in the first leg.

Football icon Bayern Munich to have 5+ corners
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Bayern managed 5 corners in the first leg at the Parc des Princes.

They average 6.22 corners per game, which increases to a huge 7.64 at home.

Stake £10
Potential Returns £48
Load my picks @ 4/1 Arrow right
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