Bayern Munich take on Union Berlin at the Allianz Arena. Some scrappy form since the World Cup break has given hope to some rivals that their stronghold on this Bundesliga crown might be slipping away. Dortmund won again on Saturday and Bayern now sit 3 points off the pace, level with Union Berlin who are having a magnificent season.
If you’re looking to put together a bet builder for this hotly anticipated Bundesliga clash, then I’ve got you covered. Shots, goals, corners, cards, passes, it’s all there to help increase your chances at a winner Stats Pack Guide.
Predicted Lineups
Bayern Munich will be without French international Dayot Upamecano who is suspended. Manuel Neuer and Lucas Hernandez are ruled out for the rest of the season due to serious injury.
Alphonso Davies will keep playing left back and in central defence the duo of Blind and De Ligt should lineup in this fixture. Sadio Mane and Noussair Mazraoui both returned to training recently, but this match probably comes too soon for them.
Union Berlin will almost certainly lineup in their typical 5-3-2 formation. They played as recently as Thursday evening in the Europa League so there is always the potential to freshen things up. The wing back spots could be up for grabs with both Niko Gießelmann and Christopher Trimmel possibly in line to replace Roussillon and Juranovic.
There were no reported injuries from the Ajax match. First choice keeper Jakob Busk remains out with illness though and Andras Schafer is injured.
Team Stats
Bayern average a massive 2.90 goals per game which is close to their xG of 2.55. They have only conceded an average of one goal per match at the other end, although shipped in three vs Gladbach last week. The Bavarian giants fire in a monstrous 18.80 shots in each fixture with 7.67 on target. Julien Nagelsmann’s men only concede 9.10 shots which is fairly low.
The average number of corners in Bayern fixtures is just over ten. They have obtained 6.05 themselves and 4.05 against. Cards have been of a moderate amount in their games picking up 1.71 themselves and 1.48 against. Teams often sit off Bayern so much they don’t engage that often.
Union Berlin average 1.67 goals per game which is a dramatic overachievement compared to their xG of 1.28. This is something to keep an eye on because that sort of difference is hard to maintain. Their xGA per game is 1.30 and that correlates almost exactly to the 1.28 they concede. Shots have been low in Union Berlin matches. They only fire in 11.00 themselves, with their opponents averaging 10.38.
Corners have been slightly above average in Union games. They average 4.95 and concede 4.57. Cards have very much been middle ranked in their fixtures. Union have picked up 1.86 cards in each game and drawn 1.71 from their opponents. Urs Fischer’s men have been relatively clean but some of their matches can boil over.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Bayern average close to 20 shots per game and there are several candidates who fire off those attempts. Gnabry averages nearly four shots per 90 mins with 1.80 on target.
For someone who scores so many goals Musiala is fairly selective with his efforts (2.63) and the same can be said for Choupo Moting (2.50). Coman and Sane all both average over 3 shots per 90 mins but might lack game time on the field here.
Sheraldo Becker averages the most shots per 90 mins of any Union player (2.12) and his accuracy rate is close to the 50% mark. Three other players average close to 1.50 shots per 90 mins: Behrens, Haberer and Thorsby. It is likely that super-sub Jordan Pefok will only be benched but he also has a high shot average per 90 mins of 2.14.
Player Goals and Assists
Jamal Musiala has scored 10 goals and supplied 7 assists. He absolutely kills this Bundesliga and with Sadio Mane still not around then he is the obvious go-to man for anything offensively. Gnabry has 9 goals and the dependable Choupo-Moting has netted 8 times. Both Sane and Muller are options off the bench for Die Bayern.
Sheraldo Becker is the leading scorer for Union Berlin, scoring seven times. He has also contributed with four assists and is arguably the most important player in their squad.
Both Haberer and Behrens have netted five and four goals respectively and are the other candidates to watch out for in this market. Jordan Pefok is a bit of a super-sub for Union and contributed with 4 goals and 4 assists. He is worth watching to make an impact off the bench.
Player passes
Bayern average 65% possession, the most of any team in the Bundesliga. They are expected to monopolise the ball significantly here and several players will come into contention for high passing marks.
The centre back pairing of De Ligt and Blind should be at the heart of operations along with Joshua Kimmich. Both of the latter two average over 70 passes per 90 mins and should be good enough to obtain that many here, as long as they stay on the field long enough.
Union Berlin only average 44% possession which is the fourth lowest figure of any team in the Bundesliga. When you consider their current league position, then this statistic is rather surprising.
Against a ball-hungry Bayern away from home it is probably not very wise to look into the passing markets for any of their players. Centre backs Leite and Knoche both average just over 50 passes per 90 mins but that will probably lower to around the 35-40 mark here.
Bayern Munich Cards
Bayern are generally quite a clean side, largely as a result of their consistent dominance. Joshua Kimmich has the most cards and averages 0.90 fouls per 90 mins. He’s probably the best contender in this market.
Fellow midfielder Leon Goretzka has four cards and a higher foul rate (1.42). Bayern are more likely to foul with transitions in this match where possibly Matthijs de Ligt might be responsible for breaking up the occasional dangerous moment cynically. He averages one foul per 90 mins
The left wing back spot for Union is a targeted offensive tactic whether Niko Gießelmann or Jerome Roussillon play there. Gießelmann is fouled 1.14 times per 90 mins and has a similar dribbling rate. Midfielder Janik Haberer could generate some issues and is fouled 1.62 times, along with striker Behrens who is fouled at a 1.32 rate.
Match-Ups to watch
Joshua Kimmich vs Janik Haberer
Leon Goretzka vs Kevin Behrens
Matthijs de Ligt vs Kevin Behrens
Union Berlin Cards
Union have generally been quite a clean team this season. Two midfielders do stand out for potential cards and fouls though, Khedira and Seguin. Both average around two fouls per 90 mins and are at the heart of this hard working Union midfield. Gießelmann has four cards and Leite has three. The latter plays in defence and averages 1.54 fouls per 90 mins.
Bayern have only drawn an average of 1.48 cards from their opponents. Nagelsmann’s men control so much of the ball that teams sometimes sit back very deep. Kimmich and Musiala are fouled the most, whilst in limited data Joao Cancelo has a really high dribbling rate of 7.39 and will be an attacking menace down the right hand side from full back. It is the same on the other flank with Alphonso Davies averaging nearly 6 dribbles per 90 mins.
Match-Ups to watch
Rani Khedira vs Joshua Kimmich
Paul Seguin vs Jamal Musiala
Niko Gießelmann vs Joao Cancelo
My Bet Builder picks of the pack
There’s plenty to pick from here, and some value to be had across the board. Below, I’ve put together my tips for the game at 4/1.
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
26th February
kick off 16:30 Bayern Munich to win Jamal Musiala to score or assist Bayern Munich corner match bet Matthijs D Ligt 1+ fouls
