Manchester City have completed the first leg of their potential treble. The Premier League crown is in the bag and now they’ll be setting their sights on the FA Cup and Champions League. In the grand scheme of things this match now matters very little to them.
Brighton are now pretty much assured of at least sixth place due to their excellent goal difference. They could still finish as high as fifth though and will be eager to finish their final home match with a win.
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Brighton vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Webster back fit bit probably only benched
Roberto De Zerbi has confirmed that centre back Adam Webster is back fit and available, but incapable of playing 90 minutes. Brighton have plenty of depth these days so if the manager chops and changes things to keep the squad fresh then do not be surprised. Against the Premier League champions though you have to expect that the Seagulls will lineup as strongly as possible.
Nathan Ake will not be rushed back for this game
This Manchester City XI must be one of the most difficult to predict of the entire season. This is a serious case of ‘Pep roulette’ where he could seriously shake things up and rest his squad. Nathan Ake is not expected to be rushed back for this game and Pep Guardiola revealed that some unnamed players are carrying some small knocks. City know they need to find the right balance between keeping players sharp and avoiding injuries. The expectation is that some of the bigger hitters such as Erling Haaland, Jack Grealish and Ruben Dias could start on the South Coast.
Brighton vs Manchester City team stats
Brighton have very impressive metrics
Brighton average 1.94 goals for and 1.29 against. These numbers are very much in line with their underlying metrics and the South Coast outfit are a legitimately strong team. They fire in plenty of shots (16.08) and average just over three SOT against in each fixture.
Brighton have racked up a high average number of corners in each game (6.25) and just 3.61 against. They’ve been a well-disciplined side this season picking up a low number of cards and generally drawing several from their opponents.
City known for being statistically brilliant
Manchester City are a statistical juggernaut. They average 2.58 goals per game and just 0.86 against. They are one of the most accurate teams in the business, racking up an impressive 5.33 SOT in each game. Opponents only average a measly 7.22 shots against them although Brighton may well present a sterner challenge.
Guardiola’s men do pile up the corners at 6.47 per game. It is usually quite safe to add City over 4.5 corners (or more) to your bet builder. Both teams in this game average a high number of corners so the overall match line could be worth looking at too.
Brighton vs Manchester City shots and shots on target stats
Enciso becoming a reliable shooting option
Brighton average over 16 shots per game and the two most likely to try their luck are Evan Ferguson and Julio Enciso. Adding either or both to your Brighton bet builder for 2 or more shots could be worth considering. The duo of Alexis Mac Allister and Kaoru Mitoma can be expected to pepper the target at least a couple of times and most likely test the goalkeeper.
Gundogan a shooting option from midfield
It’s difficult to get involved with individual player markets for City until we know their starting XI. Whoever starts upfront or out wide we can expect to fire in plenty of shots though. The likes of Haaland and Julian Alvarez are obvious candidates, along with Ilkay Gundogan who averages over two shots per game.
Brighton vs Manchester City goals and assists stats
Mac Allister and Gross worth considering
Brighton have scored a lot of goals this season which have been shared out amongst the whole team. Alexis MacAllister leads the charts and because he takes penalties his appeal is obvious. Pascal Gross and Kaoru Mitoma are more of a dual threat option, and you could add either to your Brighton bet builder to score or assist.
Record breaking Haaland always the biggest threat
Erling Haaland has broken the Premier League record in netting 36 goals. The dangling carrot of bagging 40+ goals is there for him to target should he be on the field. Julian Alvarez has proved a decent deputy recently and is close to double digit goals for the season. Grealish and Bernardo Silva would offer the best creative options if Kevin De Bruyne doesn’t play.
Brighton vs Manchester City passing stats
Could Brighton surprise City with a lot of possession?
Brighton average over 60% possession and their usual style is to dominate the ball. That will be tested here vs Man City but there could be some value to be found in the passing markets should the Seagulls have a fair chunk of the ball. Lewis Dunk or Levi Colwill could be considered but one of them will probably get replaced by Webster at some stage.
Kalvin Phillips could be the best option
Manchester City average close to 65% possession which is the most of any team in the Premier League. They are now away from home against another possession hungry team though. With the prospect of plenty of substitutions, the passing markets are dangerous for Man City players here. Kalvin Phillips had the most passes for them vs Chelsea at the weekend with 82 and could be a candidate to add to your Manchester City bet builder should he start.
Brighton cards and fouls stats
Caicedo worth looking at for fouls
Moises Caicedo is a tenacious player who will get stuck in if required. He has a high average foul count and also leads the Seagulls for cards. He should come under strong consideration to add to your Brighton bet builder for one or two fouls. The trio of Mac Allister, Gross and Estupinan could also be considered. It has been a hectic period for Brighton recently so there could be some tired challenges flying in.
Jack Grealish is one of the most fouled players in the Premier League so if he starts then Pascal Gross will come under significant pressure at right back. Lewis Dunk will have to be tasked with marking Erling Haaland or Julian Alvarez, whilst Gundogan could be a candidate to be fouled in midfield.
Brighton vs Manchester City key matchups
Pascal Gross vs Jack Grealish
Moises Caicedo vs Ilkay Gundogan
Lewis Dunk vs Erling Haaland
Manchester City Cards and Fouls Stats
Phillips to replicate the Rodri role
In midfield, Kalvin Phillips stands out as someone who should get stuck in. He has been lacking minutes this season but filling the Rodri role may see him make a couple of fouls. City will press from the front a fair bit, so the likes of Jack Grealish, Bernardo Silva or Erling Haaland are usually good for at least one foul.
Several Brighton players will cause Man City issues. In midfield Alexis Mac Allister and Billy Gilmour or Enciso will keep the likes of Phillips and Gundogan busy. The Brighton left hand side looks dangerous with both Estupinian and Mitoma set to feature.
Brighton vs Manchester City key matchups
Kalvin Phillips vs Alexis Mac Allister
Bernardo Silva vs Pervis Estupinian
Jack Grealish vs Pascal Gross
Brighton vs Manchester City Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
We have identified some bet builder angles ahead of the fixture that you may find enticing, feel free to swap in or add some of your own picks of the pack.
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Brighton vs Manchester City
24th May
kick off 20:00 Over 2.5 goals
Brighton are one of the highest scoring teams in the league with 70 goals. Man City’s firepower is tremendous as well. Matches involving both teams average 3.30 and 3.40 goals respectively.
Manchester City 4+ shots on targetCity are one of the most accurate teams around and average 5.53 SOT per game.
Under 3.5 cardsBrighton only average 1.44 cards per game and Man City even less at 1.22. This should be quite a relaxed game and is unlikely to get dirty. Referee Simon Hooper only averages 3.56 cards per game and has a reputation of wanting to let things go for as long as he can.
Over 6.5 cornersBoth teams comfortably average over 6 corners per game and should be able to contribute.
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