Newcastle welcome Leicester to St. James’ Park this evening for a mouth-watering Carabao Cup quarter-final clash and with a place in the competition’s last four on the line, supporters should be treated to some thrilling knockout action in the north east.
The Magpies dismantled City 3-0 when the teams met on Boxing Day in the Premier League, however, Newcastle could be a little more vulnerable this time around following their embarrassing FA Cup exit at the hands of Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend.
As per the usual routine, I’ve compiled a stats pack for this evening’s Carabao Cup contest, which should equip you with more than enough info to add some spice to your bet builder coupon. Take a look at my Stats Pack Guide for some more hints and tips on how to fine-tune your selections.
Predicted Lineups
Matt Targett, Jonjo Shelvey and Emil Krafth are all out of contention with injuries, while Allan Saint-Maximin is ill and is a major doubt for Newcastle.
With a packed schedule to navigate, Eddie Howe could choose to mix things up a little against Leicester with Jamal Lewis, Javi Manquillo, Jamal Lascelles, Jacob Murphy and Matt Ritchie all among those hoping to be handed starts.
Leicester City’s ranks have been decimated by injuries and Brendan Rodgers won’t be able to call upon the services of Jonny Evans, Boubakary Soumare, Dennis Praet, James Justin, Ricardo Pereira, Ryan Bertrand, James Maddison or Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall this evening.
Mark Albrighton, Kelechi Iheanacho, Luke Thomas, Caglar Soyuncu and Ayoze Perez could all be handed rare starts for the Foxes. Six of the players who started the 3-0 loss to Newcastle on Boxing Day could make the Leicester XI again today.
Team Stats
Newcastle have been overperforming expectations this season and the top four challengers have the Premier League’s best defensive record after 18 games, conceding just 0.61 goals per 90 minutes.
In addition, only two clubs (Man City & Arsenal) have better xG and shots on target against figures than the Magpies. Newcastle have been spluttering a little at the other end in recent weeks however, netting just once in their last three fixtures combined.
Leicester snapped a three-game losing streak with their narrow 1-0 win at Gillingham in the FA Cup on Saturday and the Foxes would snap your hand off if offered a similar result at Newcastle today.
City’s xG figures at both ends match up well to their actual output, while just five clubs have been allowing opponents to rack up more attempts per 90 in the league this term.
Leicester rank as the third-cleanest outfit in the Premier League from a card-collecting perspective and not one player from either side was cautioned when the Foxes lost 3-0 to Newcastle on Boxing Day.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Fit-again Alexander Isak played for the first time since September when he completed 45 minutes against Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend and the exciting Swedish striker managed to rack up three attempts against the Owls, with two of those hitting the target.
The 23-year-old might have to be content with a place on the bench today, however, with Chris Wood tipped to occupy the central striking role. Wood was one of five Magpies players to muster a shot on target against Leicester on Boxing Day, though midfielder Bruno Guimaraes lodged the most attempts overall (three).
The 25-year-old Brazilian tested Leicester keeper Danny Ward with one of his strikes and he is an interesting prospect at even money to get at least one effort on target again this evening.
Kelechi Iheanacho could be given a run from the start at St. James’ Park today and the Nigerian international seemed to have the measure of the Newcastle defence when he clocked two attempts in 20 minutes as a substitute against the Magpies in December.
Patson Daka meanwhile, has been averaging more shots per game on the road than at home in the league for Leicester this term (1.8 to 0.6), and his explosive acceleration seems to be more effective when the Foxes are in counter-attacking mode. The 24-year-old could be an interesting option in the shot markets today.
Player Goals and Assists
Newcastle rattled the net just once in their last three fixtures combined, and Brazilian Bruno Guimarães struck that solitary consolation effort in the weekend’s shock FA Cup upset against Sheffield Wednesday.
That was 25-year-old’s first strike in seven appearances for the Magpies however, and options like Chris Wood and Miguel Almiron look like stronger candidates in the anytime scorer markets against Leicester today.
Both players rattled the net against the Foxes in late December, though the more consistent Almiron represents better value at 5/2 than patchy performer Wood (13/10) to net anytime later on. Almiron is playing the best football of his career and the 28-year-old needs just one more goal to reach double figures for the campaign.
With James Maddison still sidelined and Harvey Barnes possibly rested, reliable goal-getters are in short supply at Leicester, though Belgian schemer Youri Tielemans has a decent record against Newcastle and could be an option to consider at longer odds (17/2).
Tielemans has scored three times against the Magpies since 2021 and the 25-year-old was among the goalscorers when Leicester last beat Newcastle at St. James’ Park in January of that year. Interestingly, 100% of Tielemans’ goals for Leicester City this season have come in away fixtures for the Foxes.
Player passes
Newcastle could never be described as a possession-hungry team, though they will expect to see more of it this evening than they did against Leicester in December, when they controlled just 39.9% of the ball.
However, in terms of individual passing market options for the Magpies this evening, value is scarce.
Kieran Trippier is streets ahead of his teammates for passes per 90 in the Premier League, though the fullback has beaten the 60-pass mark in just three of his last ten appearances and at unappealing odds of 1/6 to play 50 or more passes against Leicester, he looks little more than a light coupon filler.
Wout Faes, Daniel Amartey and Youri Tielemans all played over 70 passes when Leicester lost to Newcastle in December and that Foxes trio should see more of the ball than their teammates again this evening.
Belgian centre-half Faes is often tasked with setting play in motion from the back for Leicester and the 24-year-old has clocked 70 or more passes in nine of his 14 appearances for City in league and cup this term.
Faes carries excellent odds at 11/8 to beat the same target again at St. James’ Park later today.
Newcastle Cards
Kieran Tripper (5/1) has already been carded four times in the Premier League and once in the Carabao Cup for Newcastle this term and the tough-tackling full-back won’t hold back when challenging former Magpie, Ayoze Perez, if the Spaniard is deployed down his flank today.
Jamal Lascelles (9/2) has been cautioned three times despite a modest collection of appearances this term and the defender seems to struggle when he’s had little match practice.
Elsewhere, Bruno Guimaraes (7/2) could be the Newcastle midfielder with the most bite today. He’s been committing 1.50 fouls per 90 in the Premier League since August.
Though his appearances this season remain fleeting, Ayoze Perez is a major foul magnet for Leicester and he could have some meaty challenges aimed in his direction when he returns to his old stomping ground in the north east this evening.
Youri Tielemans (fouled 0.85 times p/90) should have Bruno Guimaraes in his face in midfield, while Patson Daka’s pace could trouble the ring-rusty Jamal Lascelles at the heart of the Magpies’ rearguard.
Match-Ups to watch
Kieran Tripper vs Ayoze Perez
Jamal Lascelles vs Patson Daka
Bruno Guimaraes vs Youri Tielemans
Leicester Cards
Wilfed Ndidi could be deployed in his favoured position at the base of Leicester’s midfield this evening were the 26-year-old will hope to put his physical powers to use against his hard-working Newcastle counterparts.
Ndidi usually racks up fouls pretty handily while patrolling the space in front of the Foxes’ backline and at 11/4, he is the second-tightest price in the card market behind teammate, Wout Faes.
Faes can become rattled and erratic when pressured and he is certain to feel the squeeze at St. James’ Park.
Bruno Guimaraes and Miguel Almiron will both be trying their best to unsettle Leicester with their line-breaking runs from deep positions. Both playmakers draw a decent number of fouls and City’s Wilfred Ndidi will be trying to limit their influence today.
Heavy-shouldered New Zealander, Chris Wood, has the attributes to ruffle Wout Faes’ feathers and the burly 31-year-old’s tussle with the nervous Belgian could draw intervention from referee Darren England.
Match-Ups to watch
Wilfred Ndidi vs Miguel Almiron/Bruno Guimaraes
Wout Faes vs Chris Wood
