AC Milan vs Juventus
AC Milan have only been beaten once by Juventus across their last seven competitive meetings, winning a couple and drawing on four occasions.
Milan have suffered a couple of defeats recently, but they came against Napoli, who are arguably the most difficult to stop side in Europe right now, and Chelsea away from home in the Champions League.
Everything we know about Milan suggests a return to form. Their home defeat against Napoli was their first home loss since January and they haven’t suffered successive home defeats in Serie A since 2019.
Juventus won 3-0 in midweek with all three goals being assisted by Angel Di Maria. He won’t feature in Milan as he’s suspended, great news for the hosts. Juventus’ away form in Serie A is poor also. They’re winless in their last five, losing three of those and they haven’t won on the road in the league since April.
AC Milan average 17.4 shots per game in the Serie A, a total that can only be beaten by the formidable Napoli. They average 5.10 shots on target per game which rises to 5.50 when they play at the San Siro.
Milan have had four or more shots on target in their last six straight matches at home in all competitions. They’ve also had 4+ in the last four meetings with Juventus where they hosted the match (4 SOT, 7 SOT, 9 SOT and 11 SOT).
We need four or more cards for this part of the bet to be a winner and AC Milan come into this one averaging bang on 6 cards per game. They’ve had over 3.5 cards in 88% of their matches in the league so far.
Juventus average 4.75 cards per match and they’ve had over 3.5 cards in 75% of their matches. What’s interesting though, is that they’ve had four or more cards handed out in 100% of their away matches so far.
Vs Sampdoria – 5 cards
Vs Fiorentina – 4 cards
Vs PSG (UCL) – 5 cards
Vs Monza – 4 cards
This one will be refereed by Daniele Orsato. A man who’s been a punter favourite in Serie A as well as the Champions League when it comes to bookings. He’s handed out well over 1,000 yellow cards throughout his career and he’s averaging 5.51 cards per game domestically.
Brighton vs Tottenham
The Premier League has been great for goals so far this season and Brighton have been one of the better sides with an average of 3.14 goals per game.
They’ve had over 1.5 goals scored in five of their last six in all competitions and they come into this one on the back of a 5-2 home win over Leicester and that big 3-3 draw at Anfield.
As for Tottenham, they come into this one averaging 3.63 goals per game and they’ve had over 1.5 goals scored in 88% of their matches. Although it’s a clean sweep 100% when they’re away from home, exactly what we want to hear.
Over 1.5 goals has been a winner in 9 of Tottenham’s last 11 matches and the goalless draw in Frankfurt during the week was out of character. Spurs’ last couple of results in the Premier League were a 6-2 win over Leicester and then the 3-1 loss at Arsenal.
Brighton are a good side for corners, especially at home. They’re averaging 4.71 corners per game this season however that rises to 7.33 per game when they play at the Amex. They took a total of 22 corners during the three home games they’ve played against Leicester (10), Leeds (5) and Newcastle (7).
Brighton took at least four corners in four of their last five meetings with Tottenham, including both home and away last season. The Seagull’s have hosted Spurs four times since September 2018 and they took 4+ corners in all of those (6, 9, 4, 5).
Trossard to have a couple of shots looks like a great addition.
I’m such a big fan of him, It’s surely his last campaign at Brighton with all due respect. He’s scored five goals in seven league appearances so far and he comes into the Spurs game having scored a hat-trick during the 3-3 against Liverpool at Anfield.
Trossard had four shots against Liverpool with all four hitting the target, and he’s currently averaging 2.64 shots per 90 minutes this season.
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have one of the highest goals averages in the Bundesliga (Shock horror) as they’re currently averaging 3.63 goals per game.
The interesting thing is that they’re involved in more goals away from home than they are at the Allianz Arena. So, they’re averaging 3.00 goals per game at home, whereas that rises to a much bigger 4.25 goals per game when they’re on the road.
Dortmund average 2.63 goals per game. They’ve had over 2.5 goals scored in five of their last six matches in all competitions and they come into this one on the back of a 3-2 loss at Cologne before beating Sevilla 4-1 in the Champions League during the week.
Both teams to score as well as over 2.5 goals in a Der Klassiker is always a good shout, it has occurred in the last six meetings on the spin. To show you the scorelines, they’ve been 3-1, 2-3, 1-3, 4-2, 2-3 and 2-3.
Something else that I found interesting is how often Borussia Dortmund are able to find the back of the net at home. They’re currently on a run of 38 consecutive home matches in the Bundesliga where they’ve managed to score at least once. Incredible.
The last selection in this is Bayern Munich to hit the target at least six times. It sounds like a large number for most sides in European football, but that’s not the case for a side as frightening as Bayern.
Bayern are averaging 22.6 shots per game in the league this season and no other side in the league comes close to that. They average a massive 9.6 shots on target per game which is ideal considering we only need six. As for when they’re away, they still average a high 8.5 on target per game.
Bayern have had six or more shots on target in nine of their last ten meetings with Dortmund across all competitions. A massive success rate.