Birmingham City welcome West Bromwich Albion to St Andrew’s for what is likely to be a feisty local derby. The hosts are 18th in the Championship table but have a seven point gap to the relegation zone. West Brom meanwhile, have won 10 of their last 12 league games and been in fantastic form under Carlos Corberan. The Spaniard, who recently extended his contract with the club after being linked with Leeds, has been doing a fantastic job with the Baggies.
If you’re wanting to build a Brummy Bet Builder for the game, I’ve gathered all the stats from goals to fouls, shots to cards, and corners to passes. To boost your chances of a winner, I recommend taking a read of my Stats Pack Guide to make best use of the data.
Jobe Bellingham and Marc Roberts are injured, whilst Reda Khadra is a doubt after sustaining a knock vs Swansea. Harley Dean, George Hall and Troy Deeney could all be contenders to come into the team after missing some time injured recently. Manager John Eustace prefers a 3-5-2 formation and that is unlikely to change ahead of this match.
First choice goalkeeper for West Brom Alex Palmer is ruled out until March or April due to injury, so David Button will continue in between the sticks. Matt Phillips and Kyle Barkley remain out injured long term but in general the West Brom squad is not in bad condition. Carlos Corberan has used a 4-2-3-1 system in nearly all his games since taking charge of the club.
Birmingham average 1.17 goals per 90 mins and 1.31 goals against. These numbers correlate very closely to their xG metrics. Both shots and SOT have been on the low side in Birmingham games. Blues only average 10.41 shots themselves, which includes a very poor less than three SOT in each fixture. At the other end they only concede 11.79 shots though, which isn’t too bad.
Corners have been quite average in Birmingham games and very equal. They’ve picked up an average of 4.86 themselves and conceded 4.79. Cards have been slightly on the high side, obtaining 2.10 and managing to draw their opponents into 1.97 per game. Because this is a fierce local derby then we must be on the lookout for potentially more fouls and cards though.
West Brom average 1.34 goals per game which is significantly less than their xG of 1.85. A lot of that was due to a major underperformance in the first third of the season though. They average only 1.03 goals against and only 2.69 SOT against per match, which is really impressive. The Baggies have fired an average of 13.52 shots in each fixture with 4.14 on target.
Carlos Corberan’s men have amassed an impressive 7.03 corners per game and only concede 4.28, and adding West Brom corner match bet to your bet builder at 4/6 may be a bit of hidden value. They will probably dominate possession here which will increase their chances of winning set pieces. Cards have been on the average side in West Brom fixtures. They obtained a mediocre 1.65 cards per match with their opponents getting 1.90.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
The standout name on this list is big striker Lucasz Jutkiewicz who averages 3.36 shots per 90 mins with 1.07 on target. No other player on this list averages more than one SOT per 90 mins but three guys worth keeping an eye out for shots are Hogan, Chong and Bacuna. Chong could try his luck from distance whilst Hogan playing upfront should naturally lead towards shooting opportunities.
Dike averages 3.49 shots per 90 mins with a poor SOT ratio of 0.87. He has a scattergun approach and seemingly fires at will. This whole West Brom team likes to fire their shots though. Jed Wallace averages 2.29 shots per game with a better accuracy than Dike, while Diangana fires in close to two shots per 90 mins as well, From midfield, Yokuselu generally chances his luck at least once per game and averages 1.04 shots per 90 mins, and at 8/11 for a shot you might fancy adding him to your bet builder.
Player Goals and Assists
Scott Hogan is the leading goalscorer netting ten times. Troy Deeney has scored 6 times and is a strong bench option for Blues. In terms of assists, both Chong and Bacuna stand out with four each. Chong himself has also weighed in with some goals.
Thomas-Asante is the leading scorer with five goals. There are several players who have all netted 4 or 3 goals respectively, including Diangana and Dike. The two clear leading assist providers for the Baggies are Jed Wallace and Joe Swift, who have six each.
Birmingham only average 42% possession which is the fourth worst of any team in the Championship. That figure stays exactly the same at home and we know the counter-attacking style they will be operating with. Only one of their players, Kevin Long averages more than 40 passes per 90 mins. But he is a recent signing and the data from just three appearances. Both Colin and Bielik average comfortably over 30 passes per 90 mins but we should not expect much from any Blues player in this market.
West Brom average 55% possession and are expected to dominate the ball here. They could be looking at 60%+ which brings several of their players into play in the passing markets. Defensive trio O’Shea, Townsend and Furlong could all eclipse the 50 passing mark here with midfielders Molumby and Yokuslu also both likely to have plenty of the ball against a Birmingham team who will sit back and be hard to break down.
Both Hannibal Mejbri and Juninho Bacuna have acquired 8 cards each for Birmingham. They both average over 2 fouls per 90 mins and if either player starts this game, they must come under serious consideration to commit offences. Centre back Sanderson is another likely candidate for a card, and he fouls on average at least one time in each match. From midfield, Bielik has been another accumulator of cards and fouls. He is likely to be tasked at marking Jed Wallace who could give him a few issues.
Diangana is the player most likely to cause issues to the Birmingham defence. He dribbles on average 5.03 times per 90 mins and is regularly fouled. He will start on the left hand side and often cut inside, so is a matchup nightmare for whoever plays on the right hand side of Blues’ defence. Striker Daryl Dike is another to watch out for here and will probably be targeted upfront. It is interesting to note that right back Furlong is fouled at least once per game as well.
Matchups to watch
Maxime Colin vs Grady Diangana
Dion Sanderson vs Daryl Dike
Krystian Bielik vs Jed Wallace
West Brom Cards
Three players have six cards on this list: Furlong, Molumby and O’Shea. Furlong averages the most fouls per 90 mins (1.53) but this might be an easier matchup for him because Birmingham don’t possess great wingers. Two other players who average at least one foul per 90 mins are midfielder Yokuslu and winger Grady Diangana. It is the middle of the park where a lot of action is expected here.
Hannibal Mejbri is fouled the most out of anything Birmingham player on this list. If he starts, then he could be elusive in Blues’ midfield. The highest dribbling rate is Chong, at 3.43 per 90 mins. Midfield is where Birmingham have some interesting matchups. Krystian Beilik is fouled 1.35 times per 90 mins. Upfront, big man Jutkiewicz can be a real handful and it is no surprise to see him get regularly fouled.
Matchups to watch
Jayson Molumby vs Tahith Chong
Dara O’ Shea vs Lukas Jutkiewicz
Okay Yokuslu vs Krystian Beilik
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
There were a few stand out selections from the pack that if you were to load them into your betslip below come in at a tasty looking 5/1 bet builder.
Birmingham vs West Brom
Birmingham average 2.10 cards in their direction, with their games seeing an average of 4.07.
West Brom games see slightly less, with an average of 3.55.
The game is a Birmigham Derby, and last time they met this selection came in.
West Brom average 7.03 corners in their favour, with just 4.28 in the opposite direction.
Birmingham average a much lower 4.86 corners.
Possession-wise, Birmingham average just 42%, while West Brom prefer to work with the ball at 55%.
Birmingham are 18th in the Championship while West Brom have won 10 of their last 12 league games.
Birmingham have an xG of 1.18 to West Brom’s 1.85.
Okay Yokuslu averages 1.04 shots p/90.
Birmingham concede an average of 11.79 shots per game, with West Brom attempting 13.52 per game.
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