Newcastle make the six-hour long trek to the south coast this evening, where the travel-weary Magpies will contest the “Eddie Howe Derby” against their manager’s former club Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium.
The Cherries have looked every inch like relegation favourites in recent weeks, taking just one point from the last 18 on offer in the Premier League, though Bournemouth will hope to trouble a Newcastle outfit that has drawn four of its last five assignments.
As per the norm, you can find my stats pack for today’s evening kick-off which comes equipped with everything you need to construct a stronger bet builder for the game. Use the data below along with my Stats Pack Guide to optimise your results.
Bournemouth have a lengthy injury list to contend with at present, with Lloyd Kelly, Jack Stephens, David Brooks, Lewis Cook, Ryan Fredricks and Junior Stanislas all currently sidelined.
Marcus Tavernier, Dominic Solanke and Lewis Cook will all undergo late fitness tests and Cherries’ boss Gary O’Neil will hope to have at least a couple of them available today. Expect a conservative tactical set-up from Bournemouth this evening.
Fullbacks Emil Krafth and Matt Targett are both out injured for Newcastle, though the suspended Bruno Guimaraes is the most significant absentee in midfield. Alexander Isak should be free to feature again following a knock to his head.
Callum Wilson should start against his former employers today ahead of Isak, however. Alan Saint-Maximin could hold on to his spot to Wilson’s left after having started against West Ham last time out.
Bournemouth’s goals for and against figures line up pretty well with their xG stats in both directions, though the Cherries have been conceding almost twice as many attempts per 90 as they’ve been mustering themselves.
No other team in the division has been conceding more corners per 90 than Bournemouth, and Newcastle won 14 of them to the Cherries’ three in the two previous meetings between the clubs this term.
Newcastle have been punching above their weight to a certain degree this term, though a glance at their exceptional defensive statistics highlights why their top four push has been prolonged.
The Magpies have the Premier League’s best defensive record, while only Manchester City have been allowing opponents to clock fewer attempts on target per 90. Newcastle have also been the division’s corner kings, winning more of that particular set-piece than anyone else so far. Newcastle are priced at 5/6 to cover a -2.0 corner handicap later on.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
A smattering of Bournemouth players have similar records in the shooting department this season, though few stand out from the crowd. Jaidon Anthony does catch the eye however. The 23-year-old, who is 11/10 to have 1+ shots on target today, has racked up at least two attempts in four of his last five appearances for the Cherries, and may be worth a watch for your bet builders.
Elsewhere, January signing Antoine Semenyo (4/6 – 1+ SOT) could be one to watch on his home debut. He hit a shot on target in five of his last six runouts for Bristol City before his switch to Bournemouth.
Talismanic centre-forward Callum Wilson is the one to watch closely for Newcastle today. The striker spent six seasons with Bournemouth before moving to the north east and the 30-year-old has hit six shots on target in his last five appearances for the Magpies.
When Newcastle last played Bournemouth in the Carabao Cup in December, Wilson managed to let fly four times during his 76 minutes on the pitch. Interestingly, all four of the Magpies’ defenders that day also had at least one attempt on goal.
Player Goals and Assists
With both Phillip Billing and Dominic Solanke in the treatment room for Bournemouth, the Cherries look worryingly light on goalscoring options. Gary O’Neil’s toothless charges have only scored once in their last six league fixtures combined, and that effort was dispatched by the aforementioned Jaidon Anthony.
Each of Anthony’s last two goals in the league have come at the Vitality Stadium and the 23-year-old looks the likeliest candidate from a bunch of modest alternatives today. Recent signings Hamed Traore and Antoine Semenyo are still developing chemistry and might not click for a few weeks.
Newcastle have scored only twice in their last five league fixtures, and their dry spell seems to have been triggered by the end of Miguel Almiron’s incredible hot-streak. Callum Wilson notched the Magpies’ goal against West Ham last week and you get the sense the 30-year-old will be eager to be a nuisance against his old club this evening.
Wilson would be a solid play at 4/1 to break the deadlock again today, while Kieran Trippier’s laser-like right foot could easily provide its fifth assist of the campaign (2/1).
Bournemouth are the Premier League’s second-lowest-ranked team in terms of average possession held per game in 2022/23, however, they are at ease with being counter-punchers and with pacey players to unleash with longer passes, that kind of tactical outlook makes sense for them.
Just three Cherries players have been averaging 40 or more passes this term, though it’s near impossible to find value in the markets for a target that low, so let’s not hang around.
Newcastle posted possession figures of 72.4% and 63.1% in their two previous meetings with Bournemouth this season, so it’s safe to assume the Magpies will see more of the ball than the Cherries again this evening.
Kieran Trippier (11/10), Fabian Schar (8/5) and Sven Botman (2/1) all featured near the top of the distribution charts in those encounters, and all three defenders should play their way near or beyond the 70 passes mark again later on.
Bournemouth are middling when it comes to the number of cards they’ve amassed this season, though Adam Smith (5/2) and Chris Mepham (17/10), who sit side by side to the right of their back four, have collected 11 cautions between them, and that pair will be happy to hit opponents hard again this evening.
Jefferson Lerma patrols the midfield at the Vitality Stadium with menace and the tough tackler has committed eight fouls in his last seven appearances at that venue. The 28-year-old committed two more in Bournemouth’s reverse fixture against Newcastle in September and the Colombian is even money to match that tally today.
Newcastle’s game is built around sprinting and intense line-breaking runs and Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximum both embody Eddie Howe’s tactical ideals. Their running power should put them on a collision course with Bournemouth’s Mepham and Smith today.
In midfield, Sean Longstaff might have to bear the brunt of Jefferson’s Lerma’s hits in Bruno Guimaraes’s absence. Longstaff has been fouled 1.30 times per 90 in the Premier League this term, though that figure could climb after today’s bruising encounter with Lerma.
Match-Ups to watch
Chris Mepham vs Callum Wilson
Adam Smith vs Allan Saint-Maximin
Jefferson Lerma vs Sean Longstaff
Joelinton’s physicality makes him a magnet for cards in midfield and no other Premier League player has collected more cards than the heavy-shouldered Brazilian this season, while Kieran Tripper was cautioned when Newcastle last faced Bournemouth in December. Both players could look docket-worthy later on.
Fabian Schar has amassed four bookings this season and he has committed fouls in five of his last eight away appearances for the Magpies. The Swiss centre-half could have his wits tested by new Bournemouth recruit, Antoine Semenyo, who will be keen to shine on his home debut.
Dango Outarra has been fouled 1.50 times per 90 minutes for Bournemouth this season and the winger could hit a brick wall in Joelinton today when the latter drifts to the flank to offer defensive support from his position as the furthest left member of Newcastle’s midfield trio.
Jaidon Antony will hope to use his acceleration to get Kieron Tripper turned and panicked, while Antoine Semenyo – who was fouled twice on his debut against Brighton last week – will hope to draw more mistimed challenges from Fabian Schar.
Match-Ups to watch
Joelinton vs Dango Outarra
Kieran Tripper vs Jaidon Antony
Fabian Schar vs Antoine Semenyo
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
I’ve used the numbers from my stats pack above, and have put together some value bet builder selections that come in at a solid 4/1.
Bournemouth vs Newcastle
Callum Wilson averages 1.36 shots on target P/90.
Bournemouth concede 4.76 shots on target P/90.
Joelinton commits 1.97 fouls P/90.
He’ll be up against the likes of Jefferson Lerma and Dango Ouattara, who draw 1.10 and 1.50 fouls P/90 respectively.
Kieran Trippier averages 52.5 passes P/90 in a side that average 52% possession. He mustered 85 passes against Bournemouth in September, and Newcastle had 72% of the ball.
Newcastle average 7.00 corners P/90 and had 8 the last time the two teems met.
Bournemouth concede 6.76 corners P/90.