Brentford play host to Bournemouth in a match which many would have expected to be a potential relegation ‘six pointer’ at this stage of the season. It’s to the credit of both teams that neither are currently inside the bottom three and Brentford especially have had a magnificent season. The Brentford Community Stadium has become a true fortress and they have a brilliant 4-4-1 record here, suffering just one solitary defeat. Bournemouth, meanwhile, have the second worst away record in the division.
I’ve covered everything you’ll need to put together your bet builder for this fiery Friday night fixture. All the stats are below, from goals, all the way through to passes. If you want to be bale to make the most out of my stats pack, then make sure to check out my Stats Pack Guide here.
The big question mark for Brentford is the availability of key striker Ivan Toney who picked up a knee injury at the end of December. He has been progressing well according to manager Thomas Frank but might not be deemed fit enough to start this contest.
Brentford have few other concerns with centre back Pontus Jansson a long term absentee. Frank is known for mixing up his formation between a 4-3-3 or a 5-3-2 and it is difficult to predict which style he will go with here.
Defender Adam Smith is suspended for Bournemouth so wont feature here. The Cherries have several long term injuries to players such as David Brooks, Ryan Fredericks and Marcus Tavernier. Their formation is difficult to predict.
Manager Gary O’Neil has employed various different systems this season and a 3-5-2 or a 4-4-2 look the most likely contenders. In midfield Jefferson Lerma might be fit to return but he’s touch and go, whilst Kieffer Moore should partner Dominic Solanke up top.
Brentford average 1.67 goals per game and 1.56 goals against. They have definitely been overachieving at both ends of the field. Their xG for is only 1.25 and their xGA is a mammoth 1.93. At some stage these metrics might regress to the mean which is something to look out for. Brentford only average 10.20 shots per game but have been very accurate, with 4.60 SOT. Opposition teams have been firing readily at them at an average of 16.10 times per fixture, with 5.77 on target.
Brentford average 4.56 corners per game and 6.00 against. They are known for their long throw routines so will often try to play for the throw rather than the corner. The Bees have been a reasonably well disciplined side under Thomas Frank, only picking up 1.39 cards per game. They’ve managed to draw 1.72 cards from their opponents in each fixture. Brentford place a big emphasis on set piece routines so will regularly play for fouls if they can.
Bournemouth average just one goal per game and 2.17 goals against in each fixture. Those terrible numbers correlate closely to their xG and xGA metrics, which unfortunately proves just how much of a poor team they are. The South coast outfit only average a measly 8 shots per game and conceded 16.10 at the other end of the field. Their SOT ratio is not too bad, with 40% accuracy.
The Cherries concede nearly seven corners per game on average and only obtained 3.83 themselves, which is a really low number. Bournemouth matches tend to be fairly low key in terms of ill-discipline. Their opponents only picked up an average of 1.28 cards per game, whilst they have kept a lid on things themselves by only obtaining 1.72 cards in each match.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Ivan Toney is doubtful to feature so we must focus our attention on some other players. Brian Mbeumo scored three times vs Liverpool in the previous game, although two were ruled out by VAR. He averages 2.14 shots per 90 mins, of which 1.00 have been on target. Yoane Wissa is another who averages over two shots per 90 mins with a similar SOT rate.
Christian Norgaard is an interesting candidate in this market. He only averages 1.20 shots per 90 mins, but the midfielder has converted that into 0.75 SOT. Quality over quantity is very much his motto.
Striker Dominic Solanke averages 2.04 shots per 90 mins, of which 0.94 are on target which is not a bad conversion. His likely partner Kieffer Moore is employed in a target man role, holding up the ball and is less likely to attempt that many efforts. Moore averages just 1.15 shots per 90 mins, of which several will be headed attempts.
On the right hand side, Jaidon Anthony has a very impressive 1.67 SOT rate from his 2.08 shots per 90 mins and could be one to watch here if he starts as projected.
Player Goals and Assists
Striker Ivan Toney is the third highest scorer in the Premier League with 12 goals. He is currently nursing a knee injury and might not feature. Therefore, it makes sense to look at both Brian Mbeumo and Yoanne Wissa who will be starting in offensive areas for Brentford. Each have scored four goals this season and weighed in with one assist.
Mathias Jensen is the leading assist provider for the Bees with four. He is a long throw specialist and that is always an area which needs consideration with Brentford.
Philip Billing and Kieffer Moore are the joint leading scorers for Bournemouth with four goals each. Solanke has three goals and also supplied three assists. 2 of those 3 will be playing upfront for the visitors and it makes sense to focus on that trio to hit the back of the net.
Both Jaidon Anthony and Jefferson Lerma have two goals each but nobody else really stands out for the Cherries.
Brentford only average 43% possession and no player in their ranks averages more than 50 passes per 90 mins. This is not a ball hungry team and best suited on the counter-attack.
The two players who are likely to have the most passes are Mathias Jensen and Ben Mee. The latter especially should be on the field for the full 90 mins and does average 49 passes per 90 mins. This is not an area where we can expect too much from the Brentford players though, even if it is a favourable fixture vs Bournemouth.
The visitors average even less possession with just 39%. This feels like the sort of fixture in which they might get more of the ball though and they do have two defenders, Senesi and Kelly who average around the 50 passes mark per 90 mins.
Those numbers could increase in this type of game. Brentford will not necessarily press the Bournemouth backline so there could be an opportunity to rack up the passing numbers.
The Bees are quite a clean team and only one player on this list, Mathias Jensen averages more than one foul per 90 mins. Attacker Brian Mbeumo has obtained four cards this season and is one to watch for some battles. He is a high energetic type of player who will get stuck in if required.
Both Jensen and Janelt are obvious contenders in midfield to be heavily involved. Defender Ben Mee could potentially have Kieffer Moore to deal with, but Mee has been remarkably clean this season, averaging just 0.43 fouls per 90 mins and picking up one card.
Big target man striker Kieffer Moore can be a real handful and it is no surprise to see him being fouled on average 2.40 times per 90 mins. Dominic Solanke is another forward who will need close attention. He averages nearly 3 dribbles per 90 mins and has been fouled nearly twice in each game on average.
Midfielder Jefferson Lerma is one to watch in midfield should he start and is usually fouled at least once per game. Wide man Ryan Christie averages the most dribbles per 90 mins (3.59) and is also fouled quite a lot (2.61). He may or may not start but when he’s on the field then it is worth watching because he won’t be an easy opponent.
Match-Ups to watch
Mathias Jensen vs Jefferson Lerma or Lewis Cook
Brian Mbeumo vs Marcos Senesi
Ben Mee vs Kieffer Moore
Defender Adam Smith is suspended which leaves both Chris Mepham and Jefferson Lerma as the most likely foul and card candidates for the Cherries.
Midfielder Lewis Cook and attacker Philip Billing have both obtained a couple of cards each. Bournemouth in general have been relatively clean this season.
Frank Onyeka has drawn over two fouls per 90 mins for Brentford but is unlikely to start here
Attacker Yoane Wissa can be a real handful and averages 2.38 dribbles per 90 mins and is usually fouled once per game. The midfield duo of Janelt and Norgaard are other candidates to be potentially fouled.
Match-Ups to watch
Chris Mepham vs Yoane Wissa
Jefferson Lerma vs Vitaly Janelt
Lewis Cook vs Christian Norgaard