City completed the first leg of their treble last weekend and now their focus is centred on winning the FA Cup and Champions League for a glorious treble. Before next month’s finals, they wrap up their Premier League season at Brentford, the only team to beat them at the Etihad this season and one still with a slim chance of qualifying for the Europa Conference League.
Bees boss Thomas Frank is expected to field his strongest team but whether City boss Pep Guardiola keeps his powder dry is open to question, especially with a handful of players struggling with knocks.
Predicting Guardiola’s starting XI is difficult at the best of times, so our Brentford v Man City bet builder is focused mainly on the home side, but whatever team City put out you can rely on our brilliant stats pack guide which has all the info you need to help make smart picks.
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Brentford vs Man City Predicted Lineups
WISSA TO LEAD LINE IN TONEY ABSENCE
Ivan Toney remains the talk of the town and his absence will be sorely felt, having scored both goals in the 2-1 victory at City in the last game before the World Cup. Frank deployed a 4-3-3 in last week’s 3-1 win at Tottenham in which Yoane Wissa was supported by two-goal hero Bryan Mbeumo on the right and Germany forward Kevin Schade on the other side.
INJURY WORRIES FOR GUARDIOLA
Guardiola has several injury concerns, chiefly Nathan Ake who has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury. John Stones and Phil Foden also came off during Wednesday’s 1-1 draw at Brighton and will be assessed, along with Jack Grealish, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji and Aymeric Laporte.
That’s the kind of headache Guardiola hardly needs before two massive games, so it’s worth checking the line-ups before getting involved in a Man City bet builder for what could be a fairly low-scoring affair, with the last three meetings between these sides involving three goals or fewer.
Brentford vs Man City Team Stats
BEES CORNERING THE MARKET
The Bees are the seventh highest scorers in the Premier League this season, but 35% of their 57 goals have been scored by Toney, not that they missed him at Spurs at the weekend.
For a team still in with a chance of qualifying for Europe, Brentford curiously take very few corners and their average of 4.2 is the fifth lowest in the Premier League. Facing the team with comfortably the highest possession stats of all 20 teams (64.7%) suggests going under in the corners market may pay dividends as one of Sunday’s bet builder tips.
Total domination from City
City are off the charts in just about every statistical measure, scoring 94 goals this season, 11 more than nearest rivals Arsenal, which is a whopping 17 goals more than they should have scored according to their expected goals metric.
In Erling Haaland they have a superstar that has already broken the Premier League record for goals scored in a 38-game season with 36, and City also have the joint meanest defence with Newcastle (32).
Both teams are also in the bottom three for bookings this season, with City picking up just 1.22 per game compared with Brentford’s 1.46, so going low on cards could be the way to go here in bet builder terms.
Brentford vs Man City Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Bees duo Mbeumo and Wissa buzzing
Mbeumo has already been filling the gap left by Toney’s absence, taking six shots in both wins against West Ham and Tottenham which is more than he took in his previous eight games. Six of those shots were on target, so it’s clear the command from above is ‘shoot on sight’ and he looks an interesting option to hit the target as a Brentford bet builder.
Wissa failed to get any kind of shot in four successive games as a sub but the shackles are off since being given a starting role by Frank, taking a combined seven shots against the Hammers and Spurs, four of which were on target. It will be tougher against City, but with many of their high-profile stars carrying knocks, both forwards will sense their chance to shine against the champions.
AIM FOR ALVAREZ IF HAALAND RESTED
Although Haaland has run away with the Golden Boot, Tottenham’s Harry Kane has had the same number of shots on target which proves just how clinical the Norwegian has been this season. Should Guardiola decide to rest Haaland on Sunday, expect Julian Alvarez to be given a chance to prove his worth. The World Cup winner is some way behind Haaland’s average of 1.72 shots on target per 90 mins, but he is just outside the top 10 for SOT percentage and his goal return outweighs his expected goals.
Brentford vs Man City Goal and Assists Stats
HOT-SHOT MBEUMO EYES CITY SCALP
Mbeumo looks the obvious candidate here with four goals in his last five appearances, one each against West Ham and Chelsea, plus that double against Spurs. Encouragingly, he had a couple of shots in the win at City in November, one of which was on target, so earmarked with a more prominent role he can make an impression against a team that could be light in defence.
Mathias Jensen has scored four goals in 2023 and assisted Mbeumo for his opener against West Ham, so he could be the value bet in one of these markets, while Wissa is aiming to score in his third successive game.
All about haaland this season for City
As prolific as Haaland has been this season, he has only scored once in his last games in all competitions, so Guardiola has to decide whether to rest him or boost his confidence ahead of the FA Cup final against Manchester United.
Although City produce 3.41 match goals per game, their last three meetings with Brentford produced three or under and that’s been the case in their last six PL matches. The Bees are eight from nine by the same measure, so under 3.5 has a plausible look as one of our Brentford v Man City predictions.
Brentford vs Man City Passing Stats
PASS ON MEE
Centre-back Ben Mee tops the passing stats for Brentford’s outfield players, but not one player has an average of more than 50 per game. The Bees are in the bottom five for possession, so those numbers are unlikely to improve against a team that can pass you to death. One to avoid for bet builder purposes.
PHILLIPS TO GET CHANCE?
The top five in City’s graphic all produce well over 70 passes per 90 minutes, but Kalvin Phillips can hardly be classified as a certain starter and three of them have doubts surrounding their fitness. If the former Leeds man is to add to his one start this season, then this could be the moment to get involved as a Brentford v Man City bet builder.
Brentford Cards and Fouls Stats
RICO HENRY COULD GET MAHREZ RUNAROUND
It should be a fairly clean game in west London, with only West Ham having fewer yellow cards than these two teams, but referee John Brooks is in the top five for bookings this season, so both sets of players had better be on their guard.
Left-back Rico Henry had not been cautioned all season heading towards the end of April, but a run of four in his last five appearances has put him in the picture, especially with Riyad Mahrez running at him, bearing in mind only Jack Grealish draws more fouls than the Algerian winger in the Brentford v Man City stats.
Mbeumo has committed 12 fouls in his last 13 games and his frustrations could boil over if he struggles to get on the ball.
Jack Grealish is the most fouled player in the Premier League this season, but with the Englishman not expected to start, the likes of Mahrez and Palmer will be ones to watch in forward areas when it comes to City’s attempts to win free kicks. Youthful exuberance will be the name of the game, with Foden and Rico Lewis, who draw 1.38 and 1.78 fouls P/90 respectively, also proving fleet of foot.
Brentford vs Man City Key Matchups
Rico Henry vs Riyad Mahrez
Aaron Hickey vs Cole Palmer
Bryan Mbeumo vs Rico Lewis
Man City Cards and Fouls Stats
Avoid angelic City
City are pretty much angels when it comes to discipline, but then it’s hard to commit fouls when you have the ball for most of the game. The best option looks to be Rodri, who is in the top 10 for fouls of all Premier League players this season. Those fouls rarely lead to bookings, though, and he shares top spot with Haaland and Bernardo Silva with just five.
If Brentford are to cause City problems, then they’ll be looking towards the likes of Wissa to cause chaos amongst the City defence. He draws 1.42 fouls P/90, and could well prove a handful for the likes of Dias and Akanji. Elsewhere, Rico Lewis’ bombarding runs down the left flank will be worth a watch, and both Mahrez and Lewis will do well to keep up with him.
Brentford vs Man City Key Matchups
Manuel Akanji vs Yoanne Wissa
Riyad Mahrez vs Rico Henry
Kalvin Phillips vs Mikkel Damsgaard
Brentford vs Man City Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
I’ve had a look at the stats above, and I’ve put together some bet builder selections of my own that you can check out below.
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Brentford vs Man City
28th May
kick off 16:30 Julian Alvarez 1+ shots on target
Alvarez averages 1.31 shots on target P/90.
The Argentinian has mustered at least one attempt on target in 5 of his last 7.
Over 1.5 GoalsBrentfod games average 2.78 goals, whilst Man City games average 3.40 goals.
Over 1.5 has landed in 7 of Brentford’s last 8, and 9 of City’s last 10.
Rico Henry 1+ foulsBooked four times in last five appearances
Likely to be up against Riyad Mahrez
Bryan Mbeumo 1+ foulsCommitted 12 fouls in last 13 games
Was booked in reverse fixture
