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Since arriving in the Premier League, Brentford actually have a very solid record against Man City, holding them to hard-fought 1-0 and 2-0 wins in their first season before doing a league double over them last season.
They will face off again in two weeks time as they were originally scheduled to play during Man City’s Club World Cup campaign, so these two games could prove crucial for the title race if Brentford can once again prove to be a banana skin for Pep Guardiola’s side.
Ivan Toney is back for Brentford, whilst Erling Haaland, John Stones and Kevin De Bruyne have all returned to the City fold in recent weeks after various injuries kept them all out for much of the first half of the season.
The Gtech Community Stadium has gained a reputation as being a tough place to go, although it must be said that Brentford have struggled to hit the same heights that they did in their first two seasons in the top-flight. Now just four points above the drop, an unexpected point against the champions could be vital for Thomas Frank’s side.
We’ve found plenty of value in the bet builder markets for this one, so if you fancy getting involved, read on for our Brentford v Man City bet builder tips…
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Brentford v Man City Predicted Lineups
No changes are expected for the Bees
Last time out Brentford were unlucky not to get something against Spurs, and the strong performance and lack of options off the bench means the line-up is likely to stay the same. Bryan Mbeumo remains out, whilst Yoane Wissa is still at AFCON, with his DR Congo side having advanced to the semi-finals after beating Guinea 3-1. This leaves Neal Maupay and Toney as the two upfront, and they have formed a solid partnership already, having now both scored in both of the games they have started together.
‘Pep Roulette’ in full swing here
As ever, City’s lineups are something of a mystery, but this week is particularly challenging with both Erling Haaland and John Stones on the brink of a return, whilst Kevin De Bruyne has only come back into the side in the last two weeks. We expect Matheus Nunes to drop to the bench, allowing Julian Alvarez to stay in the XI and drop into the number 10 role whilst Haaland returns upfront. If Stones and De Bruyne are fit enough to start they both look likely to do so, with Bernardo Silva and Ruben Dias waiting in the wings if not.
Brentford v Man City Team Stats
Goals flowing at the Gtech
Of their 11 home games this season, Brentford’s matches have seen three or more goals in nine. The hosts have scored two or more goals themselves on five occasions and have also conceded twice or more in seven of their 11. Over 2.5 goals is available at odds of 1.57, and it really does look to be a no-brainer here. In previous seasons, the Bees may have tried to grind out a 0-0, but their defence simply isn’t good enough this season for that to be a realistic prospect here. Expect them to be slightly more open and constantly looking for a counter-attacking opportunity.
Man City’s defensive lapses
Despite racking up the wins of late, Man City this season have desperately struggled to keep clean sheets. City threw away a goal in added time against Burnley in midweek and have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 Premier League games, a 2-0 home win to basement boys Sheffield United. Brentford have also failed to score at home just once in 11 league games at the Gtech this season, so backing both teams to score looks a smart play here, especially at 1.73.
Brentford vs Man City shots and shots on target stats
Under the radar Ben Mee
With Maupay and Toney both bagging goals left and right, you would expect them to be the obvious choices for the Brentford shots, however, captain Ben Mee has a surprisingly good shooting record despite being a centre-back. Mee has scored twice this season and has now had a shot in seven of his last 10 starts. Brentford are always good from set pieces and more often than not Mee is the beneficiary. Toney and Maupay win fouls in good positions fairly frequently, so there is every chance Mee to have one or more shots at 1.80 lands again here.
Rodri shots on target appeal here
The Spaniard has proved his worth to this City side time and time again, and with three goal contributions in his last four starts, he is adding a genuine goal threat to his game this season. With five league goals already, Rodri’s accuracy is his biggest attribute, finding the corner from long-range efforts at a good rate. He has now had at least one shot on target in his last three Premier League starts, and against what may be a stubborn defence, a cut-back to Rodri on the edge of the area may be one of City’s most effective weapons here. He can be backed for a shot on target at 1.91.
Brentford v Man City Goals and Assists Stats
Neal Maupay on a hot streak
Sparking controversy as ever when he imitated James Maddison’s darts celebration when opening the scoring away to Spurs, Neal Maupay’s 14 month, 35-game barren run in front of goal is certainly over now. The Frenchman has now scored in four straight games for the Bees in all competitions, and the first two games with Ivan Toney have looked like it could be the beginning of a fruitful partnership. For those seeking a longshot, backing Maupay to make it five goals in five games at odds of 5.0 is a tempting prospect.
Almost impossible to overlook Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne’s return was perhaps the last thing City’s title rivals wanted to see, and an instant game-winning impact away to Newcastle showed exactly why, as he turned the game around with a goal and an assist in 30 minutes off the bench. His genius free-kick against Burnley in midweek was beautifully executed and the Belgian already looks in top form. With three goal contributions in just 165 minutes of football, should De Bruyne start here, backing him for a goal or an assist at 1.62 looks to offer fantastic value.
brentford Cards and Fouls Stats
Christian Norgaard in for a long evening
The Danish midfielder holds down the fort for the Bees in the centre of the park, though he has licence to roam and his season heatmap shows he’s covered nearly every blade of grass. With Rodri, Rico Lewis and Julian Alvarez all likely to be in those central areas, he will have his work cut out here. Rodri and Lewis draw 0.94 and 1.80 fouls respectively, whilst Norgaard commits 1.76 per game. The Dane has committed two or more fouls in three of his last four league starts, including a whopping six last time out against Spurs. He can be backed for two or more fouls here at 1.53.
With Keane Lewis-Potter likely to start at left wing-back, Ben Mee will not have a natural defender alongside him to defend from the threat of Foden. Foden has been playing centrally for much of the season, but has still started 10 games on the right, being fouled in nine of these 10 games, for an average of 1.6 fouls drawn per game. Mee generally commits few fouls but has committed five in his last four starts, whilst all but one of the games in which he has committed a foul have come when he has played as the LCB, rather than centrally. All that together means backing Mee to commit a foul at 2.2 could be an absolute steal.
Man City Cards and Fouls Stats
Toney’s physicality to be a challenge for Gvardiol
Playing out of position as a full-back, Gvardiol has the build of a centre-back and often uses this to his advantage. However, Brentford’s two striker set-up should allow Toney to roam wider into the zone occupied by City’s Croatian defender. Gvardiol already commits over a foul per game (1.04) and has committed seven in his last five league starts, only failing to commit a foul in the win at Everton during that run. Ivan Toney has drawn four and two fouls respectively, so backing Gvardiol to commit at least one foul at 1.53 offers serious value.
Though slightly less proficient at winning fouls than Toney has been so far, Maupay still draws 2.32 fouls per game which is amongst the higher averages in the Premier League. The Frenchman has now been fouled in six straight games for the Bees and has been fouled twice or more in five of those six. Backing him to win a single foul at 1.22 looks a great way to boost your odds, whilst there could be some serious value on offer backing him to win two or more at 2.10.
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