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Brentford vs Man United Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Brentford vs Man United

Calendar 30th March
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Over 2.5 goals
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Both sides are missing players in defence which should aid goal production. The defensive record and xGA numbers for both teams is not very good.

The last 10 Man United games in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 goals with 11 of the last 13 Brentford games hitting that mark.

Football icon Ivan Toney to commit 1+ fouls
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He averages nearly two fouls per 90 and his sheer physicality naturally gives away cheap free kicks.

Football icon Frank Onyeka to commit 1+ fouls
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Brentford’s midfield enforcer will likely come under pressure from the likes of Bruno Fernandes and Kobbie Mainoo.

He averages 1.89 fouls per 90 so should commit at least one offence.

Football icon Over 9.5 corners
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Man United fixtures average over 13 corners per game, while Brentford’s fixtures average 10.45. United will pile on the pressure in wide areas and Brentford like to play for set pieces.

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Brentford host a Manchester United side who are still in with a slim chance of securing Champions League football despite a largely negative perception this season.

Brentford have been struggling as of late and are without a league win since early Feburary and with Everton sitting one point behind with a game in hand, they will be desperate to start picking up points anywhere to avoid a dangerous relegation scrap at the back end of the year.

Manchester United will still be hoping for a Champions League finish this year but it’s starting to become a tall task, however, with England provisionally leading the coefficient rank, fifth spot may be enough and they will be looking to close that six-point gap to Tottenham starting this weekend.

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Brentford vs Man United  predicted lineups

Bees stung by injuries

Brentford have had huge injury concerns all season and they continue to have several players on the sidelines. They are obliterated in defence with Rico Henry, Ben Mee, Ethan Pinnock out and left back Sergio Reguillon suspended. Manager Thomas Frank could switch to a 3-5-2 formation with a trio of Nathan Collins, Kristoffer Ajer and Zanka in the back three. Keane Lewis-Potter and Mads Roerslev will operate as effective wing-backs. Key midfielder Christian Norgaard is also injured but attacker Bryan Mbeumo could be in contention to start. 

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Hojlund returns for United

Man United have key injuries to Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez. We should see Victor Lindelof partner Raphael Varane in central defence. Marcus Rashford should switch to the left wing with Danish striker Rasmus Hojlund back from injury and likely to lead the line. Casemiro could be an injury doubt so Mainoo and Scott McTominay are likely to jioin Bruno Fernandes in a midfield triangle. Alejandro Garnacho should beat Antony to a spot on the right wing. 

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Brentford vs Man United team stats

Underachievement at the back is a major concern 

Brentford have underachieved at both ends of the field compared to their xG and xGA metrics. Their xGA of 1.56 is actually better than Man United but Brentford have conceded nearly two goals per game which is a huge amount. Defensive injuries and poor goalkeeper from Mark Flekken have been to blame and they can’t be trusted to keep things tight. Brentford only average 12.34 shots per game which is on the low side. Corners have been fairly high in their fixtures at 10.45 per game. The Bees regularly play for set pieces so this is something to watch out for.

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Defensive issues plague United

Man United have underachieved in front of goal this season but they are starting to work their way towards their xG metric of 1.55 per game. Erik ten Hag’s men have an average xGA per game of 1.69 which is far too high for any team with Champions League aspirations. The Red Devils’ defence has been far from reliable this season. United have conceded nearly 17 shots in each match which is a serious Achilles heel. Corners are through the roof with their fixtures at a staggering number – 13.29.

Team Stats 23

Brentford vs Man United Shots and shots on target stats

No value with shot-shy Brentford?

Brentford only average around 12 shots per game. Ivan Toney surprisingly averages less than three shots per 90 so odds of 1.25 that he fires three or more attempts might not be the banker some would think. He should hit the target though and averages well over one shot on target per game. He could be added to your Brentford bet builder at 1.22 to test Andre Onana. Both Keane Lewis-Potter and Yoane Wissa average over two shots per 90 minutes but at odds of 1.22 and 1.77 respectively to fire in multiple attempts it looks too short in a match where Brentford are the underdogs. 

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Garnacho to strike

Man United aren’t the most accurate team but there are some players who like to fire in a significant number of shots. Alejandro Garnacho averages well over three shots per 90 minutes and is priced at 1.53 to replicate that here. Marcus Rashford is a safer option than Hojlund in the shots markets. Cutting inside from the left wing he should get opportunities and is 1.44 to have three or more attempts. Hojlund is 1.25 to have two or more attempts which looks well within his reach. 

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Brentford vs Man United goals and assists stats

Toney the favourite but Wissa could be underrated

Ivan Toney is the shortest price of any player (2.20) to score at any time in this match. He netted a penalty for England vs Belgium in midweek so his tail might be up, despite some inconsistent performances recently. Toney has failed to score in any of his last five Premier League appearances which is a concern. If United focus on him too much then Yoane Wissa could sneak under the radar. He’s much bigger priced at 3.25 to score and won’t be without his backers here considering he’s the Bees’ top scorer this season.

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Stick with Rashford?

Marcus Rashford has now scored in his last three consecutive games. He is a confidence player, so this might be the right time to strike with him. At 2.80 to hit the back of the net he looks big, especially as he might take some set pieces. Rasmus Hojlund should be back to lead the line and also merits consideration at 2.63 to score anytime. The best value in the ‘to score or assist’ market for United is probably Bruno Fernandes at odds of 2.20. He should be on penalty duty and has been in good form recently. 

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Brentford Cards and Fouls Stats

Crazy Ivan fouling machine 

Brentford rank in the bottom five for fouls committed per game in the Premier League (10.30) but are joint-fifth for cards obtained. This suggests some of their fouls are quite clinical or they are prone to dissent and time-wasting. Ivan Toney is a physical beast and gives away cheap free kicks. He averages nearly two fouls per 90 minutes and is priced at 2.25 to commit multiple offences, or 1.25 just to commit a single foul or more. The big card candidate for Brentford is Frank Onyeka and the 3.30 on offer he gets booked must merit consideration. He’s 1.22 to commit one foul or more which looks safe when you consider his seasonal averages.

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Man United rank surprisingly low for fouls drawn in the Premier League this season at just 9.05 per game. Only the likes of Sheffield United below them which is a shocking stat. All of the starters in midfield and attack apart from Garnacho and Hojlund draw less than one foul per 90 so it might not be wise to go hunting in the Brentford fouls market. Garnacho should be able to cause problems to Keane Lewis-Potter who is naturally more offensive-minded. He is 1.73 to commit one or more fouls but could be under significant pressure due to his position on the field. 

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Man United Cards and Fouls Stats

Bruno booking value

The Red Devils rank inside the top seven for cards obtained in the Premier League and have been quite a dirty team this season. They rank inside the bottom six for average fouls per game though which shows that a lot of their cards are probably for dissent or time-wasting. Captain Bruno Fernandes is the obvious candidate to go into the book at 3.40 and at 1.29 to commit one or more fouls. Diogo Dalot is another possibility and looks overpriced at odds of 1.50 just to commit a single foul or more.

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Brentford rank midtable for fouls drawn in the Premier League. Both strikers Ivan Toney and Yoanne Wissa tend to win several free kicks and could keep the United defence honest. Midfielder Frank Onyeka is fouled 2.44 times per 90 whic adds more weight to backing Fernandes fouls and a potential card. 

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