No matter the outcome of their final fixture of 2022, Arsenal will finish the year as Premier League leaders, though the Gunners will be determined to sign off on a high against bogey team Brighton at the Amex Stadium this evening
Arsenal overcame another test of their mettle when they roared back to record a 3-1 comeback victory over West Ham on Boxing Day, but having lost each of their last two encounters with the Seagulls, the table toppers cannot allow their focus to slip later today.
Below, you can find a selection of stats for this evening’s game at The Emirates Stadium which is laden with info on corners, assists, cards, shots, shots on target, assists and more from the teams’ Premier League campaigns. Use the data below to construct savvier bet builders for the contest. Take a glance at my Stats Pack Guide for some pointers if you need them.
Predicted Lineups
Key Brighton midfielder Moises Caicedo picked up a suspension-triggering yellow card against Southampton on Boxing Day and will be forced to sit out this evening’s game as a result.
With World Cup winner Alex Mac Allister still enjoying the celebrations in his homeland, Billy Gilmour could earn his first Premier League start of the campaign in the middle. Solly March, Adam Lallana and Kaoru Mitoma all put in excellent shifts against the Saints and that trio could be deployed behind Leandro Trossard again in attack.
Mikel Arteta was all smiles in the post-match media scrum after his team’s win over West Ham and the Gunners boss could name an unchanged XI to face Brighton this evening.
Fit-again Oleksandr Zinchenko is pushing hard to usurp Kieran Tierney at left-back, though the latter is expected to be favoured again. Eddie Nketiah, who scored against the Hammers, should reprise his role up front in Gabriel Jesus’s continued absence.
Team Stats
Brighton are punching above their weight again this term and they can finish 2022 in 6th place if results go their way this weekend. Statistically, the Seagulls’ records will all make for pleasing reading for boss Roberto De Zerbi.
Albion rank sixth in the Premier League for shots for and third-best for shots against per 90, while Brighton’s xG against figure also places them among the division’s front-runners.
Brighton have been drawing more cards than Arsenal this term and they’ve also been winning more corners than the Gunners – something that might come in useful in that particular market today.
Every other team to hit 40 points from their first 15 Premier League assignments of the season have gone on to lift the title and alongside a stellar set of results, Arsenal have been posting stats worthy of potential champions.
Arsenal rank well in just about any metric you care to list, though their defensive numbers are particularly eye-catching. The Gunners have conceded just 39 shots on target in total in 15 league fixtures, while their 0.80 xG against figure is remarkably mean.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Leandro Trossard is the metric leader for Brighton in both the shots and shots on target per 90 departments this season, though the emerging Kaoru Mitoma is really starting to turn heads with some equally dynamic displays.
Mitoma had four attempts against Southampton on Boxing Day in what was only his third-ever Premier League start. Two of those efforts hit the target and the 25-year-old is priced nicely at 11/10 to test Aaron Ramsdale with at least one effort today.
Eddie Nketiah has big boots to fill up front in place of the injured Gabriel Jesus, though the Arsenal academy graduate looked the part against West Ham and he lodged four attempts in total against the Hammers.
Nketiah doesn’t represent great value at 2/5 to register at least one shot on target against Brighton however, though Norwegian schemer Martin Odegaard could tick some boxes at 8/11 to rack up two or more attempts.
Odegaard had a whopping six shots against West Ham on Boxing Day and the 24-year-old has unleashed at least two strikes in three of his last four Premier League starts.
Player Goals and Assists
Leandro Trossard is Brighton’s leading marksman this season and with goals scored against Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool (3) already this term, the Belgian is the very definition of a big-game performer for Albion.
Trossard’s penchant for producing the goods on the big occasion makes him an interesting prospect at 7/2 to score anytime today, while Solly March, should have a kick in his step after he claimed a goal and an assist against Southampton on Boxing Day.
March tops the pile at Brighton for shot-creating actions in 2022/23 (53) and the 28-year-old is a big price at 11/4 to score or assist today for those hunting meatier odds.
Martin Odegaard created two of Arsenal’s goals against West Ham earlier this week and the Norwegian is now sitting on a hugely-impressive ten goal contributions in 16 Premier League runouts for the campaign.
The ex-Real Madrid youngster catches the eye at 13/8 to earn another goal or assist against Brighton, while current first-choice frontman Eddie Nkietah – who has scored twice in as many games in league and cup – is the plumb pick at 17/10 to notch anytime.
Player passes
Only four clubs have enjoyed more possession per game on average than Brighton this season, and Albion’s defenders tend to see quite a bit of the ball in Robert De Zerbi’s system.
Brighton captain Lewis Dunk usually initiates more moves from the back than his defensive counterparts, however. The 31-year-old has played north of 70 passes in nine of his last 11 Premier League starts and he is available at 8/11 to repeat that trick against Arsenal.
Arsenal have been controlling possession a smidgin under 60% of the time per game on average, and they will expect to hog more of the ball than Brighton on the south coast this evening.
As an ardent Pep Guardiola disciple, Mikel Arteta likes his team to build from the back with the ball on the deck and it comes as no surprise to see so many defensive players listed on the rundown of the team’s most prolific passers.
Centre-backs Gabriel Magalhaes and William Saliba played exactly 200 passes between them against West Ham on Boxing Day, and both look like safe bets at evens and 4/6 respectively, to push through the 70 passes ceiling against Brighton.
Brighton Cards
With both Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister out of contention today, Brighton will be a little muzzled in midfield, though decent card candidates can still be found in both full-back positions.
Pervis Estupinan (three cards) and Joel Veltman (14 fouls in total) have tricky customers to deal with in the form of Arsenal wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
Elsewhere, Pascal Groß – who made four tackles in a more defensive role against Southampton – should have a busy evening tracking the clever movement of Martin Odegaard. The German committed two fouls against the Saints and the 31-year-old’s chances of picking up a card should be much higher while he plays as an anchorman.
Fleet-footed flanksmen, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, are routinely forced to absorb knocks and kicks from frustrated markers. Brighton’s Joel Veltman and Pervis Estupinan could fall into that category today when the Albion pair try to limit the influence of their direct opponents.
Martin Odegaard’s creativity in possession should ensure that he is monitored closely in midfield and a few swipes could be aimed in his direction from Pascal Groß.
Match-Ups to watch
Pervis Estupinan vs Bukayo Saka
Pascal Groß vs Martin Odegaard
Joel Veltman – Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal Cards
Arsenal right-back Ben White will be keen to impress against his old employers Brighton this evening and a fourth card of the campaign could be earned for any over-enthusiastic tackles on his old stomping ground.
William Saliba meanwhile, can be tempted into rambunctious challenges by more experienced, clever forwards and Leandro Trossard will be aiming to utilise his superior nous to make life uncomfortable for the young Frenchman this evening.
Mikel Arteta likes his front players to be pressing machines and Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli rank one, two and three at the club for total fouls committed this term. Martinelli will share a flank with Brighton’s most-fouled player, Solly March, later on, so keep an eye on that head-to-head.
Kaoru Mitoma has already been fouled five times in just three Premier League starts for Brighton and the Japanese surprise package has the skill set to trouble Ben White if his Albion teammates can feed him the ball.
As we touched on above, Leandro Trossard (fouled 13 times this term) is streetwise enough to unsettle William Saliba, while Solly March (fouled 1.6 times p/90) should have Gabriel Martinelli for company when in possession on the Albion right.
Match-Ups to watch
Ben White vs Kaoru Mitoma
William Saliba vs Leandro Trossard
Gabriel Martinelli vs Solly March
