Liverpool fans hoping for a trophy this season will have been dealt a real testing blow when the FA Cup draw came out. Two Premier League teams in a row, and this time it’s Brighton away after they were humiliated by them just two weeks ago in a 3-0 drubbing. If Jurgen Klopp aspires for any sort of resurgence in his club’s season, this tie may just be the game to kick that off.
From their Premier League campaigns so far, I’ve summarised the stats for xG, goals, shots, corners, passes and cards for both teams and their players. If you’re planning a bet builder for the game, which there are full markets available for, you’ll want to back up your picks with some stats. Use the numbers below alongside my Stats Pack Guide to boost your chances of winning bets.
Brighton’s FA Cup exploits began with a 5-1 win over Middlesbrough, and they are now unbeaten in their last 4 in all competitions, since their entertaining 4-2 loss to Arsenal. Just two weeks ago they beat Liverpool 3-0 at the Amex and will be brimming with confidence.
Goals have come easy in Brighton games, where they average 3.37 goals a game in the League. 43 goals in their last 10 games alone, with over 2.5 goals in all 10 and both teams have scored in 9 of them. The bookies recognise this hence they’ve priced over 2.5 goals at 1.57 and BTTS at a lowly 1.47.
Liverpool games don’t shy away from goals either. Slightly lower with 3.11 goals on average, but Liverpool’s failure to finish off chances is evident in their xG stats. Their total xG is 3.64, with 2.26 in their favour.
Interestingly, both teams rack up over 6 corners a game, although only Brighton proved that last time the sides met. Brighton had 7 to Liverpool’s 1. In that game, Liverpool went against their trends for cards too, where they had 3 bookings despite averaging just 1.21 this season.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
With Leandro Trossard exiled from the team and now in North London, Evan Ferguson has taken his place and with some style. He’s averaged 2.27 shots on target from 3.64 shots.
Ferguson, Kaoru Mitoma, and Solly March have been the players flying high for the Seagulls, regularly on the scoresheet in recent fixtures.
Darwin Nunez is beginning to make a name for himself as the man that can’t finish off his chances, and that may explain Liverpool’s goals vs expected goals stats I spoke about earlier. That being said, he manages terrifically to get into attacking positions, and that’s why he’s managed 2.30 SOT and 5.60 shots p/90. He’s rated at 1.3 for 1+ SOT and 2.4 for 2+ SOT.
Player Goals and Assists
Although Pascal Grob is top scorer for Brighton, he’ll probably be played in a different position to what De Zerbi has typically deployed him in – as a defensive midfielder rather than at right-back, so I’m not sure Evens for a goal contribution is value.
My eyes are on the form players I just mentioned; March, Mitoma and Ferguson. They come in at 2.7, 2.25 and 1.91 to score or assist.
For Liverpool, last years golden boot winner seems to have a similar curse to that of his joint top scorer Heung-Min Son. Salah has just 7 goals in 19 games.
It’s clearly an area that Liverpool are struggling in, as no players really come close to Salah and Nunez’s numbers despite them being underwhelming themselves. Cody Gakpo is also yet to get his first for the club.
Adam Webster and Lewis Dunk will likely pair up at centre-back for Brighton. The latter of which started against Liverpool in the league and racked up a whopping 92 passes. He’s 1.3 to pass the 70 pass mark.
Brighton’s possession stats are somewhat surprising at 57%, and they actually managed 61% against Liverpool.
If Liverpool change up tactically and try and get a stranglehold on possession, then the likes of Joe Gomez and Thiago are likely to be the passing maestros. Thiago comes in at 1.44 while Joe Gomez is priced slightly higher at 1.53.
Moises Caicedo and Pervis Estupinan live up to their Ecuadorian roots and are never scared to play dirty. They rack up 2.02 and 1.42 fouls p/90 and have been in the refs book a combined 8 times.
The referee today, David Coote, doesn’t have a crazy average for cards and so fouls may be the place to look. Caicedo comes in as favourite to commit a foul (1.11), whereas Mac Allister may present some value at 1.3.
The reason I like the look of Mac Allister is because he has the likes of Thiago to contend with in midfield. He’s fouled on average 2.10 times per 90 minutes of hard-fought action.
Stefan Bajcetic will also potentially be on his hit list in a more advanced position, and he’s averaging 1.54 fouled and 3.08 dribbles per 90.
Match-ups to watch:
Moises Caicedo vs Thiago Alcantara
Alexis Mac Allister vs Stefan Bajcetic
Pervis Estupinan vs Mohamed Salah
Liverpool aren’t big on receiving cards, and have received just 1.21 a game. Although, in their game against Brighton the whole right side of a defensive triangle were booked; Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joel Matip, and Thiago.
The right side of Liverpool’s defence were caught out by Solly March (fouled 1.44 times p/90) on two occasions, but a lot of their struggles came from Brighton’s left flank.
Kaoru Mitoma and Pervis Estupinan may just miss out on the graphic but they are fouled an average of 1.08 and 0.92 p/90 respectively.
Match-ups to watch:
Trent Alexander-Arnold vs Kaoru Mitoma
Thiago Alcantara vs Pervis Estupinan
Kostas Tsimikas vs Solly March
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Here’s a few bet builder picks that stood out as value when making the stats pack. Comes in at 9/1.
Brighton vs Liverpool
Brighton average 3.37 goals a game.
Over 2.5 goals has come in in all 10 of their last Premier League games.
Liverpool average 3.11 goals per game with an xG of 3.64.
Darwin Nunez averages 2.30 shots on target per game.
Soly March has 4 goals and 4 assists in the Premier League.
He scored twice against Liverpool two weeks ago.
Alexis Mac Allister averages 1.11 fouls per game.
In a more advanced position, he will be up against Thiago (2.10 fouled p/90) and Bajcetic (1.54 fouled p/90).