Brighton vs Liverpool Betting Tips & Stats

Sure, Liverpool may have expended a great deal of effort on Wednesday, but if anything, that may allow Brighton to really impose their own game. Brighton rank second in the league for fouls committed; they’ll press aggressively from the off, look to catch out any tired Liverpool legs, and I think Hurzeler’s side will overstep the mark and pick up cards along the way.

Only Chelsea and Spurs have picked up more cards per game than Brighton this season, and their average of 2.43 cards per game has been steadily increasing. They’ve averaged 2.80 cards per game over their last five in the league, with Brighton picking up more cards than the opposition in all five of those outings.

This selection has landed in both meetings between Brighton and Liverpool this season, with Saturday’s hosts winning the card counts 2-1 and 4-0. Given that Brighton have failed to force more than a single card from the opposition in each of their last four, I find it difficult to suggest that Liverpool, who have blanked on cards in three of their last five, can match them here.

Call it recency bias, but I would much prefer to have Dominik Szoboszlai on side at 6/4 in this market than some of his Liverpool colleagues at evens. The Hungarian, in my opinion, has comfortably been Liverpool’s best player this season, and I think he’ll be a key feature come Saturday.

Szoboszlai has scored against both Spurs and Galatasaray in the last week, and the fact that he’s registered a goal contribution in five of his last nine, and in eight of his last 13, is certainly impressive; that run includes a goal against Brighton. Let’s not forget, Szoboszlai has been the ultimate utility player for Slot this season, and he’s putting up these numbers despite stints at right back.

Volume certainly helps matters here; Szoboszlai has managed 35 shots and 15 shots on target in his last 15 outings in all competitions. Given his prowess from distance and free kicks, there’s every chance one of those efforts hits the net. He’s Liverpool’s primary corner taker as well, so don’t be surprised to see him add to his eight assists in all competitions this season.

Value is quite difficult to come across in the foul markets in this game, given a lack of players drawing serious numbers. But, in Brighton’s Diego Gomez, you have a player as good as any for fouls, and despite the lower price, I think he’s the single best option.

Front-footed, but often naive and rash, Gomez won’t need to line up against tricky customers to see this land. The Paraguayan averages 2.10 fouls P/90, has committed 16 more fouls than any other player in the Brighton squad, and ranks fourth across the entire league for fouls committed as well.

This selection has landed in each of Gomez’s last five starts in all competitions, but perhaps more importantly, he committed two fouls in the reverse league fixture playing out wide, and committed three in the same role against Liverpool in the FA Cup. Both Kerkez and Frimpong draw in excess of 1.00 fouls P/90 if Gomez is to start on the flanks, and when drifting central, a combined 2.37 fouls drawn P/90 from Gravenberch and Mac Allister can see this over the line.