Brighton are still searching for their first victory under new boss Robert Zerbi, though Albion have a big opportunity to pocket three points when Nottingham Forest visit the Amex Stadium this evening. Bottom club Forest have claimed just a single point from the last 21 on offer and they face another stiff test of their top-flight acumen against the Seagulls on the south coast.
We’ve assembled a stats pack for this evening’s fixture below, which is bursting with key info on shots, assists, fouls, corners, cards and more from the clubs’ Premier League campaigns so far. As per the usual routine, use the research and my Stats Pack Guide to pick a winner.
Jakub Moder has been joined on the sidelines by Kaoru Mitoma, while Levi Colwill and Jean Paul van Hecke are considered doubtful.
Adam Lallana could be in line to start for the first under Roberto de Zerbi today. Tariq Lamptey could also be drafted in at right back.
Moussa Niakhate, Omar Richards and Jack Colback are all in the treatment room at present for Nottingham Forest.
Manager Steve Cooper could choose to mix things up a little tactically this evening in a bid to halt the team’s rotten run of results.
Brighton have slipped down to seventh spot following a run of just one win in five assignments, though their overall underlying stats for the campaign still have a positive look.
Albion are hitting more shots (13.33) and shots on target (4.56) per 90 minutes than they are conceding at the other end, while their xG for (1.81) and corners won (5.56) figures p/90 are healthier than their equivalent numbers at the wrong end.
Nottingham Forest are rooted to the foot of the Premier League and as you’d expect, their stats make for pretty grim reading from their perspective.
Forest have been conceding 2.3 goals per 90 minutes since their promotion, while their 15.40 shots against p/90 figure is the second worst in the division. The relegation candidates have also collected more cards than any other team so far (29).
Player Shots and Shots on target
Danny Welbeck generally plays furthest forward for Brighton, though his game is built around disruptive runs and hard work rather than accurate shooting (0.48 SOT p/90).
Albion carry more threat in wider positions where Leandro Trossard (2.56 shots per 90) and Solly March (2.47) tend to do their best work. That pair had five attempts between them in the Seagulls’ 2-0 loss at Brentford last Friday.
Tawio Awoniyi was captured from Union Berlin in the summer and the Nigerian striker has been doing his best to make an impact in the Premier League, where has notched 2.68 shots per 90 so far.
Emmanuel Dennis (2.72 shots p/90) has been handed a starting role just twice this term, though he has shown enough in flashes to suggest he should hold a more prominent position. The versatile Neco Williams (1.81) seems to rack up decent numbers despite his constant positional changes.
Player Goals and assists
Leandro Trossard tops the charts at Brighton with five Premier League goals, though three of those efforts were hit in a single virtuoso performance at Anfield earlier this month.
Alexis Mac Allister (four goals) is Albion’s designated penalty taker, while German Pascal Groß has provided five goal contributions from midfield (3G, 2A). Danny Welbeck meanwhile, hasn’t scored a Premier League goal since May.
Taiwo Awoniyi and Brennan Johnson are tied on two goals apiece as Forest’s joint-leading scorers in the Premier League, while big-money summer acquisition Morgan Gibbs-White is the leader for assists (two).
Forest managed to rattle the net just once in their last three games. That goal was registered by Emmanuel Dennis in the club’s 1-1 draw with Aston Villa. The striker headed home from a dead ball delivery and three of Forest’s seven goals this term have come via set pieces.
Fiery Argentinean Alexis Mac Allister (1.67) and Ecuadorian Moises Caicedo (2.73) form a powerful South American combo in midfield for Brighton, though the former has been collecting the most cards (3).
At full back, Caicedo’s compatriot Pervis Estupinan (2 cards) tackles hard, while Solly March (1.41 fouls per 90) has been scolded by officials at times this term on the opposite flank.
Emmanuel Dennis has been starting fewer games than he’d have liked to, though the Nigerian attacker has been a magnet for fouls when given the nod. Dennis is an awkward customer and the centre-half he attaches himself to this evening should be in for a battle (Webster or Dunk).
Ryan Yates (fouled 2.77 times p/90) has been in the thick of it in midfield and he could face a meaty challenge or two from Alexis Mac Allister at the Amex Stadium. Taiwo Awoniyi will be running the channels this evening and the forward could have his surges checked by Pervis Estupinan when he drifts right.
Match-Ups to watch
Adam Webster/Lewis Dunk vs Emmanuel Dennis
Alexis Mac Allister vs Ryan Yates
Pervis Estupinan vs Taiwo Awoniyi
Nottingham Forest Cards
Steve Cook has been cautioned four times in just seven starts this season and it’s interesting to note that he picked up cards while marking quick forwards in games against Aston Villa, Leicester, Fulham and Spurs. The 31-year-old faces a similar test against Danny Welbeck today.
Neco Williams is fond of a tough challenge at fullback and the Welsh international has been carded three times for his indiscretions this term. More centrally, Cheickhou Kouyate is one to watch out for. The 32-year-old has been committing 2.62 fouls per 90 for Forest this season.
Danny Welbeck doesn’t appear on our list, however, the ex-Man Utd forward’s running game should unsettle the one-paced Steve Cook later today.
Leandro Trossard (fouled 1.07 times p/90) likes to explore space down Brighton’s left-hand side and the Belgian will run into no-nonsense Forest defender Neco Williams if he moves into those areas this evening.
Moises Caicedo (fouled 1.48 times per/90) routinely draws hefty tackles in midfield and his duel with Forest’s Cheickhou Kouyate has the makings of a card bonanza.
Match-Ups to watch
Steve Cook vs Danny Welbeck
Neco Williams vs Leandro Trossard
Cheickhou Kouyate vs Moises Caicedo
That’s all for this one. I’m intrigued to see if De Zerbi can pick up his first win as Brighton boss tonight, they’re more than capable of putting a few past Forest.
Best of luck to anyone having a bet, hopefully my stats pack can help you pick out some winners. As always, make sure to keep the stakes low, and stay sensible when betting this evening.