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Burnley vs Bournemouth Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Burnley vs Bournemouth

Calendar 3rd March
Football icon kick off 13:30
Football icon Bournemouth to Win
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Burnley have lost 10 of their 13 home games this season, winning just once, against Sheffield United

Bournemouth have won 3 and drawn 1 of their 6 away games against sides in the bottom-half of the Premier League this season

Football icon Antoine Semenyo to have 1+ shots on target
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Semenyo averages 1.41 shots on target per 90, and had a shot on target when these sides met earlier in the season

He has now had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 starts in the Premier League (excluding games in which he was subbed at half-time)

Football icon Sander Berge to commit 1+ fouls
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Berge has now committed a foul in 14 straight games for club and country

He averages 1.45 fouls per 90 and has already picked up 8 bookings this season

Football icon Maxime Esteve to win 1+ fouls
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Esteve has drawn 1.61 fouls per 90 this season across his time at Montpellier and Burnley

He has been fouled at least once in all 3 of his Burnley starts since his January move

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It’s a trip to Turf Moor for the first game of Super Sunday, where hosts Burnley will go head-to-head with Bournemouth.

Both clubs will doubtless see this game as a big opportunity, with the Clarets having last won a game in December and Bournemouth going the entire month of February without a win.

For Burnley, it really does feel like we have entered now or never territory. Thanks to Everton’s points deduction being reduced to six points, they are now 11 points adrift of safety with just 12 games to play. A win here would go a long way to restoring some hope at Turf Moor.

Bournemouth should be feeling relatively secure, sitting 14th and eight points clear of Luton in 18th, but things can change quickly in football and Andoni Iraola will know these are the games they must win to be certain of survival this season.

This has the potential to be a cracking contest, with both sides feeling this is a must-win game, and that makes for a great game for betting purposes. We’ve had a look at all the data and picked out some great selections for your Burnley v Bournemouth bet builder, so why not get involved?

Our Stats Pack Guide can help you find some additional value in the data ahead of making a Burnley vs Bournemouth Bet Builder.

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Burnley vs Bournemouth Predicted Lineups

Kompany forced into a couple of changes

Josh Brownhill’s first half dismissal against Crystal Palace means he is now suspended for this one, and Josh Cullen is likely to be called into the side to replace him in central midfield. Zeki Amdouni was sacrificed up front to get Cullen on and it looks like he may well miss out again here, with Jay Rodriguez set to partner new signing David Datro Fofana up front. We may also see a change on the right flank, with Jacob Bruun Larsen likely to be preferred to Johann Berg Gudmundsson.

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Back to full-strength for Iraola

Dominic Solanke’s superb form this season has been a big driver behind Bournemouth’s success under Iraola, and fortunately for the Cherries he is expected to return after being ruled out midweek with a knock to his knee. Plenty of changes should be expected from midweek though, with Lewis Cook likely to be the only survivor of Bournemouth’s midfield and forward line. Scott, Sinisterra, Billing, Ouattara and the now-injured Unal will all likely return to the bench as Christie, Tavernier, Kluivert, Semenyo and Solanke slot back into the starting lineup. Neto should also return in place of cup goalkeeper Travers.

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Burnley vs Bournemouth Team Stats

Value to be found on the corner markets

Burnley’s home games have often seen double digit corners this season, with 77% of their clashes at Turf Moor seeing 10+ corners. Bournemouth have also seen high totals on the road, averaging 11.31 corners per game away from home. The last time these two sides met there were 15 corners taken, and we expect the 10 corner mark to be hit here. Burnley’s last three opponents at Turf Moor have taken an average of nine corners, essentially hitting double digits without the hosts needing to contribute. Over 9.5 corners can be backed at 1.40, but over 10.5 is also tempting at 1.65.

Team Stats 2

Don’t be fooled by the Cherries’ recent form

Whilst a seven-game winless streak looks poor on paper, Bournemouth have had a tough run of fixtures recently, facing Spurs, Liverpool, Newcastle and Man City in this run. They have never been beaten on xG by more than 0.7 in this run, showing they have generally been playing well and creating chances and have perhaps been unlucky not to win any of these seven games. Their showing last weekend against City was impressive, holding the champions to just one goal and having chances to equalise. They will feel confident of winning this one and look to be undervalued sitting just below evens to win, at 1.95. That looks a great starting point for any bet builder here.

Team Stats 3

Burnley vs Bournemouth Shots and shots on target stats

Returning Rodriguez offers nice value

Injury has kept Rodriguez out of the side for two months but prior to this he was in good form for the Clarets. His last seven Burnley starts have seen him hit six shots on target, bagging at least one in five of his last seven starts. Rodriguez took two or more shots in five of his last seven Premier League starts for Burnley and he should get chances against a Bournemouth side which are unlikely to dominate for 90 minutes. He can be backed for a shot on target at 1.73.

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Semenyo the best value pick here

With Burnley’s defence being so obliging, few Bournemouth players offer great value in the shots markets, however Antoine Semenyo is certainly worth a look. The South African has now had at least one shot on target in seven of his last 10 Bournemouth starts (in which he has played 60+ minutes) in the Premier League. Averaging 1.41 shots on target per 90, Semenyo is not afraid to shoot and is likely to get plenty of chances here. He can be backed at 1.40 for a shot on target in this one.

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Burnley vs Bournemouth Goals and Assists Stats

New signing Fofana becoming Burnley’s last hope

In five games since joining the club Fofana already has three goal contributions, one assist and two goals. In these five games he has been directly involved in three of the four goals Burnley have scored, and though he has not scored or assisted in three games, Burnley have not found the net in two, whilst the other game was away at Liverpool. If they do get on the scoresheet here it would a big surprise not to see Fofana either scoring or assisting. He can be backed at 2.88 to score or assist, or at 3.75 to score anytime, a solid longshot option.

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Solanke offers great value here

Despite a slight knock, it is expected that Solanke will be fit and firing in time for this clash. He has now bagged 10 goal contributions in his last 10 Bournemouth games, and across the Cherries last six games Solanke has either scored or assisted 60% of Bournemouth’s goals. Bournemouth have scored in all but one of their 13 away games this season and should they score here, it is highly likely Solanke will either be applying the finishing touch or setting up a teammate to do the same. Available at a very reasonable 1.91, he looks by far the best option in the goal or assist market.

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Burnley Cards and Fouls Stats

Nice value on Sander Berge

The big Norwegian central midfielder ranks highly for fouls amongst this Burnley squad, racking up more cards than anyone else (8), and fouling 1.45 times per 90. You have to go all the way back to November for the last time Berge set foot on the pitch without committing a foul, having now done so in his last 14 games for club and country. Despite this strong foul record, he can be backed to commit a foul at 1.30, a very solid option here.

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Semenyo the best option for Bournemouth fouls

Antoine Semenyo has been fouled 1.41 times per 90 this season, the highest in the Bournemouth XI expected to start here. The South African has been fouled in five of his last six starts for the Cherries, being fouled twice or more on three occasions. He will be up against Burnley left-back Charlie Taylor, who has committed 0.99 fouls per 90 this season, and can be backed to win a single foul at 1.36.

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Bournemouth Cards and Fouls Stats

Great value available for Senesi fouls

Marcos Senesi commits the third-most fouls of any Bournemouth starter, averaging 1.75 per 90. This has ramped up in recent weeks, his average for the last five games sits at 2.99 fouls per 90. He has committed at least one foul in all of his last five starts and committed two or more in four of these five. Despite his recent hot streak for fouls, he sits at evens to commit two fouls here, a price which cannot be ignored. For those seeking a slightly safer option, he remains worth backing to commit one foul at 1.20. 

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Big miss from the bookies on Maxime Esteve

Since his arrival in January from Montpellier, Esteve has played four times for Burnley, starting three times. In each of his three starts he has been fouled at least once, and for the season he has been fouled 1.61 times per 90, having also been fouled regularly during the first half of the season in France. Three of Bournemouth’s front four average over a foul per game, and Esteve is likely to be pressed constantly throughout, so backing him to be fouled once at 1.91 looks to offer amazing value.

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