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Turf Moor plays hosts to a crucial contest between two big relegation favourites. Vincent Kompay’s Burnley outfit were expected to do fairly well in the Premier League this season but have been really poor, especially at home where they have 9 out of 10 defeats. However, their one win was vs fellow promoted side Sheffield United and they have already beaten Luton away from home earlier this season.
Rob Edwards’ visitors have been surprisingly competitive this year and know they need to target these types of matches if they are to achieve what would be a shock survival. Our Stats Pack Guide will help you extract further value from the data in this piece.
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Burnley vs Luton predicted lineups
Kompany sticking to his guns
Vincent Kompany loves a 4-4-2 formation and especially in a match they are favourites to win the expectation is that they will set up in this way. There are injury doubts surrounding the trio of Jordan Beyer, Lyle Foster and Charlie Taylor, whilst the duo of Hjalmar Ekdal and Luca Koleosho are ruled out longer term. This is going to be a straightforward system for the Clarets and there won’t be any surprises.
Kabore on international duty
Luton should come here in a 3-4-2-1 system. Right wing back Issa Kabore is on AFCON duty with Burkina Faso, so Chiedozie Ogbene will probably come into the side to replace him. Marvelous Nakamba is out with a knee injury, Tom Lockyer continues his recovery whilst the trio of Carlton Morris, Reece Burke and Dan Potts are doubtful with injury. There is a possibility that Ryan Giles could come in at left wing back and Alfie Doughty switches to the right hand side in an inverted capacity.
Burnley vs Luton team stats
Miserable metrics for The Clarets
Burnley have averaged a measly one goal per game but they have astonishingly overachieved with an xG of 0.87. This is a team that has seriously lacked firepower this season and their 10.40 average shots per game is a pathetic statistic. At the other end of the field, they have conceded more than two goals per game and opponents have helped themselves to nearly six shots on target per match. Corners are on the high side but cards are very much in the mediocre range. Some would argue they haven’t got stuck in enough.
Hatters conceding a lot of shots
Luton concede an average of 1.95 goals per game and have only kept one clean sheet all season. Their defence is unreliable and they concede an average of 16.79 shots per game which is a high amount. Their opponents hit over five shots on target against them, so Burnley should be licking their lips. Corners are on the high side in their fixtures and cards have been extremely low. At an average of 3.63 cards overall, Luton have kept their discipline well and their matches have not turned into bloodbaths very often.
Burnley vs Luton shots and shots on target stats
Strikers should have their shooting boots on
Vincent Kompany’s men only average just over 10 shots per game but they face a porous Luton defence. The two forwards, Zeki Amdouni and Jay Rodriguez are the most likely to try their luck. They can be backed at 1.57 and 1.67 respectively to have three or more shots which is very possible against a team like Luton. Amdouni averages at least one shot on target per 90 minutes and could be looked at to test the keeper at least once with odds of 1.44.
Andros to go to town on Burnley
Luton should also get plenty of shooting opportunities in this match. Andros Townsend was turned down by Burnley in the summer so might be out to prove a point at Turf Moor. He is 1.22 just to have one shot, which could be a sensible bet builder option. The 2.25 on offer that he fires in two or more attempts could be excellent value. The trio of Elijah Adebayo, Ross Barkley and Jacob Brown are all other alternatives to look at in the shots markets. With Barkley on a lot of free kicks, the 1.36 that he has two or more shots looks like solid bet builder material.
Burnley vs Luton goals and assist stats
Odobert odds could be worth considering
The Lancashire outfit have desperately lacked goals all season and their scoring charts make for bleak reading. Amdouni and Brownhill rank joint-top on this list with three goals each and the former Basel man Amdouni is probably their biggest threat. Amdouni is as big as 3.10 to hit the back of the net which is generous when facing such a poor defence. Wilson Odobert has found some form of late and is another worth looking at (3.60).
Adebayo the main man upfront
Luton aren’t the most free-scoring side but must fancy their chances against this Burnley defence. Ross Barkley is due another goal and might get chances from set pieces. He is a massive 6.0 to score anytime which might tempt those who are after big value. Elijah Adebayo is a strong physical striker who could cause plenty of problems and is another massive price to hit the back of the net at 4.20. The best dual threat option for Luton in the ‘to score or assist’ market, is Alfie Doughty who has been impressive at wing back this season.
Burnley cards and fouls stats
Cullen can’t contain himself
The Clarets rank in the bottom half for cards obtained in the Premier League but now rank joint-highest for red cards. Burnley have started to lose their discipline lately with some poor decisions which are perhaps a result of their pressurised league position. Midfielder Josh Cullen is the one to look at in the fouls marketa but to make it worthwhile you may need to back him for two or more fouls at 1.73. Dara O’Shea could be a value option at 1.57 just to commit one foul or more when you consider his foul average of 1.17 per 90.
Luton only draw 1.79 cards per game from their opponents which is a very low rate. They are fouled 10.10 times per match which is also on the lower side. One player who stands out should he start is Chiedozie Ogbene, mostly because of his high dribbling rate. He likes to take on his man and will cause issues to the entire Burnley left-hand side. Odobert or Hannes Delcroix could be vulnerable and Delcroix at 1.40 to have one or or fouls is a possible bet builder option.
Luton Cards and Fouls Stats
Luton forwards will press hard and commit fouls
Rob Edwards’ Hatters are a very clean team and only three teams in the Premier League have picked up fewer cards than them this season. Along with Newcastle, they are the only side yet to receive a red card. They average 12 fouls per 90 minutes but generally keep themselves well disciplined. The best options in the fouls markets could be their attackers Jacob Brown and Elijah Adebayo. The manager often gets his forwards to press and both can be backed at 1.67 to have two or more fouls, which looks very possible based on their seasonal numbers.
Burnley are one of the least fouled teams in the Premier League this season at just 9.30 times per game. They only draw 2.50 cards from their opponents and have generally lacked the experience and guile to win cheap free kicks. Amdouni is fouled nearly twice per game and has a high dribbling rate. He could pose Luton a challenge and so will Josh Cullen who draws 2.45 fouls per 90.
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