Burnley vs Man City Betting Tips and Stats

I’m expecting Manchester City to claim a convincing victory on Wednesday night, so much so that I’m prepared to back them to overcome a -2 handicap. That’s something star-studded City managed in their last Premier League away match at Chelsea when winning 3-0, while they also comfortably cleared a -2 handicap hurdle when making light work of Liverpool with a 4-0 triumph in a recent FA Cup tie.

Pep Guardiola and his players know the importance of this match, with a win sending them to the top of the league. Given that goal difference could prove decisive in the title race, City will be keen to fill their boots against a Burnley side likely to be low on confidence.

Scott Parker’s team were swept aside 4-1 by Nottingham Forest on Sunday, and it would be fair to say they face a far sterner test this midweek. The fact that title-chasing Manchester City won this season’s reverse fixture 5-1 only strengthens the case for backing the visitors to record a comprehensive win at Turf Moor on Wednesday night.

Much like the aforementioned Cherki, Jeremy Doku is another player who regularly finds himself on the end of robust challenges, which makes his direct opponent Kyle Walker an attractive option to commit two or more fouls on Wednesday night. While the Burnley full-back is averaging just 0.96 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, Doku will represent arguably his toughest duel to date. Moreover, Walker has been prone to conceding multiple free kicks this season, having been penalised 2 or more times in 5 of his previous 12 Premier League appearances at Turf Moor, conceding 3 fouls against Chelsea during that stretch. His tendency to get on the wrong side of referees is further underlined by the fact he has already picked up 9 yellow cards in the Premier League this season, the most recent of which came against Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

With all that in mind, Walker looks worthy of support to overstep the mark at least twice during this contest. Doku is drawing an average of 2.83 fouls per game in the Premier League this season and was fouled a whopping 6 times against Arsenal last time out.

I’m keen to back Rayan Cherki to be fouled at least twice at Turf Moor on Wednesday night. The classy Manchester City playmaker has been in fine form of late and is one of several City players who are likely to come in for plenty of close attention during this contest. Cherki is drawing an average of 1.95 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, and has been brought down on multiple occasions in 3 of his last 4 top-flight starts away from home.

The likelihood of Cherki being man-marked by Burnley’s Florentino only strengthens the case for this selection. The tough-tackling Clarets midfielder has been catching the eye of Premier League referees on a consistent basis this season, committing an average of 1.76 fouls per game. Upon closer inspection, Florentino has been penalised for multiple fouls in 6 of his last 8 starts, overstepping the mark on no fewer than 4 occasions against Nottingham Forest last time out.