Vincent Kompany is leading Burnley to the Championship title in his maiden campaign at the helm and the Clarets can cement their position at the summit of the division with a victory at home to Sunderland this evening.
The Black Cats’ playoff hopes were severely dented by a haul of just one victory from seven assignments in the lead-up to the international break, though Tony Mowbray’s charges will be determined to provide sticky opposition to Burnley at Turf Moor.
Below, I’ve assembled a stats pack for this evening’s contest which should arm you with more than enough nuggets of info to fill your bet builder coupon with smart selections. Head over to my Stats Pack Guide for the inside track on how to get the most out of the data.
Predicted Lineups
Josh Brownhill is expected to sit out this evening’s game as he recovers from a foot injury, leaving Johann Gudmundsson, Jack Cork and Josh Cullen to fill the places in Burnley’s midfield. Taylor Harwood-Bells is still nursing a complaint at centre-half, so Ameen Al-Dakhil and Jordan Beyer should start there ahead of him.
Jay Rodriguez could return to the matchday squad, though the striker should play second fiddle to Ashley Barnes again up front. Nathan Tella and Anass Zaroury should be positioned either side of Barnes in the final third.
Sunderland have quite a few issues to contend with ahead of their trip to Lancashire later on with Jewison Bennette, Daniel Ballard, Aji Alesse, Dennis Cirkin, Corry Evans, Ross Stewart and Ellito Embleton all rubbing shoulders in the treatment room at present.
Amad Diallo started for Ivory Coast on Tuesday evening and the jaded loanee might be kept in reserve this evening. Tony Mowbray is expected to deploy his troops in his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation at Turf Moor.
Team Stats
Burnley have been comfortably the Championship’s most-impressive outfit this season and alongside building a seven-point lead at the division’s summit, the Clarets also hold the league’s best goalscoring and defensive records.
At Turf Moor, they are undefeated, dropping just ten points from a possible 57, while Burnley have won 52 more corners than Sunderland since August and they earned five of those particular set pieces to the Black Cats’ two when the teams last met in October. Burnley are even money to beat a -3.0 corner handicap today.
Few of Sunderland’s underlying stats for the campaign are anything to write home about, however, they have scored the fourth-most goals in the Championship this season despite ranking 13th for shots per 90 and 13th for xG.
Defensively, Tony Mowbray’s side are positioned mid-table for xG against (1.10 p/90), though they did match Burnley in that department (0.7-0.7) despite losing 4-2 to the Clarets October. Only a handful of other teams have been collecting more cards than Sunderland however, and the visitors are 10/11 to pick up more cautions again this evening.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Nathan Tella (2.75), Ashley Barnes (2.64), Johan Gudmundsson (1.94) and Anass Zaroury (2.17) have all been posting strong numbers in the shots per 90 arena this season, though Tella and Zaroury did the most damage when Burnley beat Sunderland 4-2 earlier in the campaign.
The wingers clocked five attempts between them at the Stadium of Light, though 23-year-old Tella is of particular interest today. The Southampton loanee, registered at least two shots on target in each of his last three appearances in the Championship and Tella can be backed at even money to repeat that trick later on.
Joel Gelhardt could lead the line for Sunderland today, though the 20-year-old’s finishing can be erratic at times and instead wide attacker, Jack Clarke, could offer a better value option in the shot markets against Burnley.
22-year-old Clarke has tested the keeper with at least one strike in six of his last eight appearances in the Championship and the youngster was one of the four Black Cat players to register an accurate attempt when Sunderland lost to Burnley in October. Clarke is available at a generous 15/8 to log at least one shot on target later today.
Player Goals and Assists
Nathan Tella is still way out on his own as Burnley’s most prolific player in the Championship with 17 goals and the 23-year-old – who bagged five goals in his last two runouts in the second tier – is backable at 13/10 to notch anytime again this evening.
Tricky Moroccan flanksman, Anass Zoury, who has claimed nine of his 11 Championship goal contributions in home matches for Burnley this term, is also an option to consider at 4/6 to either score or assist at Turf Moor again today.
With seven goals in their last seven fixtures in the Championship, Sundeland’s attacking edge has looked a little blunt over the past month, and they could struggle to puncture a Burnley defence that has conceded just 13 times in 19 fixtures at Turf Moor since August.
Nevertheless, Jack Clarke, who has seven goals and six assists to his name in 2022/23, did create a goal against the Clarets in October and the former Tottenham starlet represents good value at 16/5 to either score or assist again later on.
Player passes
No team has controlled possession as well as Burnley in the Championship this season, so expect the Clarets to call the shots at Turf Moor in terms of ball retention this evening.
Many of their most-prolific distributors are found defensive areas, with Ameen-Al Dakhil and Jordan Beyer averaging over 80 passes per 90 this season, while key possession rotator Josh Cullen has also been heavily involved. a 70+ passes target should be a snug fit for all three today.
Sunderland sit sixth in the Championship for average possession held per game this season, though the Black Cats are almost certain to see far less than 52.50% of the ball against their hungry hosts at Turf Moor.
Luke O’Nien (55.0), Trai Hume (45.5) and Daniel Neil (43.7) top the individual passing charts for Sunderland in 2022/23, and O’Nien did manage to play 63 passes against Burnley when the teams met in October. Even so, lower targets should be considered for Sunderland passers today, even if value is hard to dig out.
Burnley Cards
Jack Cork (3/1 to receive a card) is one of 11 players in the Championship into double-figures for bookings this season and the no-nonsense 33-year-old should see plenty of action again in what should be a competitive space in midfield later on. His partner in crime Josh Cullen (2/5 to commit 1+ fouls) is also worth tracking in today’s combative scuffles in the middle.
At left-back, the impetuous Ian Maatsen could have his defensive nous examined by tricky opponent Patrick Roberts on the flank. The Dutch defender committed five fouls combined in his last two Championship appearances and the 21-year-old is worth adding to coupons at 8/13 to commit just one today.
Edouard Michut and Daniel Neil form a youthful but talented pair at the base of Sunderland’s midfield and both players have been drawing plenty of fouls from opponents in the engine room this season. Their tussles with Jack Cork and Josh Cullen should be of interest to foul and card bettors this evening.
Patrick Roberts meanwhile, has been fouled 1.21 times per 90 this season, and the 26-year-old’s ingenuity out wide could draw more mistimed tackles from his market, Ian Maatsen.
Match-Ups to watch
Jack Cork vs Edouard Michut
Josh Cullen vs Daniel Neil
Ian Maatsen vs Patrick Roberts
Sunderland Cards
Sunderland cult hero Luke O’Nien is a versatile operator, though filling in at left back to defend against Burnley’s Nathan Tella should test his flexibility thoroughly and the 28-year-old looks a good option at 2/1 to collect his ninth booking of the campaign.
Jack Clarke is a fiery character out of possession and the 22-year-old is of interest in the fouls market where he is priced at 8/11 to commit two or more fouls. Clarke committed four of them against Burnley in October. Trai Hume meanwhile is 3/10 to commit just one indiscretion – which is a modest target for any defender marking Ashley Barnes.
Nathan Tella (fouled 2.54 per 90) has had most of his markers on toast this season and his acceleration should pose plenty of problems for Luke O’Nien if the latter starts at left back. Backing Tella up down that side is the marauding Conor Roberts, who has enough running power in his tank to drag the spiky Jack Clarke into unfavourable positions.
Ashley Barnes meanwhile, continues to make a career out of turning minimal contact into free kicks and the burley centre-forward has been fouled 1.48 times per 90 for Burnley this term. Expect the 33-year-old to use all of his experience to frustrate 21-year-old Trai Hume at Turf Moor.
Match-Ups to watch
Luke O’Nien vs Nathan Tella
Jack Clarke vs Conor Roberts
Trai Hume vs Ashley Barnes
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Taking a gander through the data got me a few ideas. How about these two value selections that you can add to your bet builder slip at the click of a button, or keep them as a card double.
Burnley vs Sunderland
31st March
kick off 20:00 Jack Cork to be shown a card
Jack Cork (3/1 to receive a card) is one of 11 players in the Championship into double-figures for bookings this season and the no-nonsense 33-year-old should see plenty of action again in what should be a competitive space in midfield later on.
Edouard Michut and Daniel Neil form a youthful but talented pair at the base of Sunderland’s midfield and both players have been drawing plenty of fouls from opponents in the engine room this season – 2.42 and 1.19 p/90 respectively.
Luke O'Nien to be shown a cardSunderland cult hero Luke O’Nien is a versatile operator, though filling in at left back to defend against Burnley’s Nathan Tella should test his flexibility thoroughly and the 28-year-old looks a good option at 2/1 to collect his ninth booking of the campaign.
Nathan Tella (fouled 2.54 per 90) has had most of his markers on toast this season and his acceleration should pose plenty of problems for Luke O’Nien if the latter starts at left back.
Backing Tella up down that side is the marauding Conor Roberts, who has enough running power in his tank to force the left-back into unfavourable positions.
