Championship leaders and title favourites Burnley have won six games on the spin in the second tier, and the impressive Clarets have another opportunity to showcase their class when they host West Brom at Turf Moor this evening.
The Baggies have promotion aspirations of their own this season however, and Albion will fancy their chances of springing a surprise in Lancashire following a run of four straight victories. Who will win the tactical battle between Vincent Kompany and Carlos Corberan?
Below, I’ve assembled a stats pack for this evening’s game which is bursting with info on shots, shots on target, fouls, xG, cards, corners and more from the teams’ Championship campaigns to date. Combine the data below with the pointers in my Stats Pack Guide to piece together stronger bet builders for the clash later on.
Predicted Lineups
Burnley have lost key centre-half Taylor Harwood-Bellis to a foot injury which is a major blow to their title tilt. Charlie Taylor could fill in for his absent teammate later today.
Right-back Vitinho is also sidelined at present with Tyler Roberts expected to fill that gap in the Claret’s backline this evening. Former West Brom striker Jay Rodriguez is expected to spearhead the attack against his old club.
Carlos Corberan rested several players for WBA’s 4-0 FA Cup win over Chesterfield in midweek, though Okay Yokuslu, Jed Wallace, Dara O’Shea and Daryl Dike should all return to the Baggies’ XI this evening.
Kyle Bartley is still receiving treatment for a foot complaint, while Brandon Thomas-Asante is serving a ban following his dismissal against Chesterfield a couple of weeks back.
Team Stats
Burnley’s transformation from old-fashioned cloggers into slick passers under Vincent Kompany has been remarkable and the Championship title favourites’ underlying stats for the campaign all make for impressive reading.
The Clarets are scoring more goals per 90 than any other team in the division, while only Sheffield United have been conceding less often.
Interestingly, Burnley rank just 9th and 4th in the Championship for shots and shots on target mustered per 90, while their xG figure of 1.56 (p/90) is only the league’s seventh-best. That set of figures point to a razor-sharp clinical edge in the final third. When chances fall their way, Burnley tend to gobble them up.
West Brom have been making serious strides since Spanish taskmaster Carlos Corberan’s appointment in October and the Baggies have claimed maximum points in nine of their last ten league fixtures.
Defensively, Albion have looked rock-solid with Corberan calling the shots and they’ve kept clean sheets in 70% of their last ten Championship assignments.
WBA have scored 16 fewer goals than Burnley this season despite posting healthier shots and xG figures per 90. Albion have also been winning plenty of corners and there could be an opportunity to pursue in the markets for that particular set piece later on.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Ashley Barnes has been productive in the final third for Burnley when given the nod to lead the line, though Jay Rodriguez could be preferred today and the 33-year-old is a tidy 4/9 to register at least one shot on target against his ex-employers.
Manuel Benson meanwhile, lodged three shots on target in his last two Championship appearances for the Clarets. The 25-year-old carries genuine threat when he cuts in from the right flank and he is 4/6 to find is range with at least one effort this evening.
American striker Daryl Dike has been making waves since his return from injury and the talented 22-year-old has clocked at least one shot on target in each of his last three appearances in league and cup.
At 8/13 to repeat the trick today at Turf Moor, the centre-forward could be a decent bet builder addition. Jed Wallace meanwhile, has managed just one shot on target in his last four runouts combined, so it might be best to look past the 28-year-old today.
Similarly, John Swift hasn’t been able to land a blow on target in any of his last nine appearances in the Championship and the 27-year-old probably doesn’t deserve to be considered for today’s coupon on that basis.
Player Goals and Assists
Goals have been spread healthily across Burnley’s squad this season with 15 different Clarets players chipping into build their 53-goal haul in the Championship so far.
Their two leading marksmen, James Rodriguez and Nathan Tella, are in the midst of five and four-game runs without a goal respectively, though veteran striker Rodriguez will be doubly determined to end his mini-drought with a goal against his old club today.
The 33-year-old is available at 9/5 to net against his former employers this evening.
Target man Daryl Dike is working hard to make up for lost time after his injury nightmare and his return of two goals in his last two Championship appearances suggests his finishing skills are starting to sharpen.
Dike carries odds of 11/4 to register for the third Championship fixture in a row today, while John Swift, who has been recording 5.04 shot-creating actions per 90 this season, could be the one to unlock the Burnley defence with a pass.
Swift (7/2 anytime assist) has already claimed five assists in the Championship in 2022/23 and the 27-year-old ranks first at the Baggies for key passes played per game (2.2).
Player passes
Burnley have been one of the Championship’s primary ball-hoggers this season and elements of Vincent Kompany’s gameplan echo those of his former manager Pep Guardiola’s blueprint at Man City.
Defenders Louis Beyer and Ian Maatsen tend to see plenty of action when the Clarets are constructing passing moves from the back. Maatsen has played 60 or more passes in six of his last seven appearances, while Beyer managed the same in each of his last 11 starts for Burnley.
West Brom have controlled at least 55% possession in each of their last four fixtures and their dominance of the ball is definitely on the rise under Carlos Corberan.
However, Corberan will expect his side to have less control than usual against Burnley this evening, so aim a little lower if you are including any Baggies player from the passing markets on your docket.
Darnell Furlong should interest a few in this department. The 27-year-old fullback has jumped the 60-pass barrier in eight straight games for WBA.
Burnley Cards
In Josh Brownhill and Josh Cullen, Vincent Kompany has two midfielders who relish physical battles and both anchormen look like viable options to increase their combined 12-card haul for the campaign today.
Elsewhere, Ian Maatsen looks like an interesting contender in the same market. The 20-year-old should have more defensive work on his plate than he usually does at left-back, and a fifth booking of the season could be in the works for the Chelsea loanee.
As one of West Brom’s most creative outlets, John Swift picks up his share of knocks and bruises and the Baggies’ schemer should have the aggressive Josh Cullen on his case today.
Okay Yokuslu pulls the strings for Albion a little deeper and the Turkish playmaker should have the hard-working Josh Brownhill to contend with in the engine room.
Jed Wallace has been fouled 22 times for WBA in the Championship this season, making him the club’s joint second-most kicked player, and the jinking winger has the ability to make Ian Maatsen uncomfortable this evening.
Match-Ups to watch
Josh Brownhill vs Okay Yokuslu
Josh Cullen vs John Swift
Ian Maatsen vs Jed Wallace
West Brom Cards
Jayson Molumby usually partners Josh Cullen in midfield for the Republic of Ireland, though sparks should fly when the compatriots line up on opposite sides of the dividing line today.
Molumby, who has collected five cards this term, is never shy about sticking the boot in and he should be in the thick of the action at Turf Moor. Similarly, fellow Irishman Darragh O’Shea is one to keep a close eye on at centre-half.
Full-back Darnell Furlong meanwhile, have committed more fouls (30) than any of his Albion teammates in 2022/23 and he should have plenty of room to throw his weight around later on.
Josh Cullen both dishes out and receives plenty of punishment in midfield for Burnley and the abrasive Irish international could be in the firing line again if Jayson Molumby gets close.
Darragh O’Shea could have the incisive runs of Manuel Benson to check when the latter moves in from the flank, while Darnel Furlong might be in for a tough examination of his mettle against the increasingly influential Anass Zaroury. Both O’Shea and Furlong could be on referee Jarred Gillett’s radar today.
Match-Ups to watch
Jayson Molumby vs Josh Cullen
Darragh O’Shea vs Manuel Benson
Darnell Furlong vs Anass Zaroury
