Wednesday’s Champions League Combo Treble

Leverkusen had a stellar season under Xabi Alonso last season but their success in fixture stretches beyond last season, going unbeaten in their last 6. In their last trips to the Allianz Arena, they’ve won 1-0 earlier this season and drawn 1-1. Last season, they drew 2-2, managing 2.98 xG and 4 big chances.

This season, Alonso’s side haven’t been as invincible but are still unbeaten in 8 games. This includes 7 points in their last 3 away games with a 4-1 win at Frankfurt on Saturday the pick of the bunch. In that win, they racked up 2.12 xG and 18 shots to 8. The 0-0 these sides played out 3 weeks ago saw the visitors today managed 2.55 xG to Bayern’s 0.13.

Bayern are a side riddled with quality, there’s no doubting that, but their performances in this fixture don’t fill me with confidence. It took a stoppage time equaliser to avoid disaster against Celtic and they’ve suffered defeats to Feyenoord, Barcelona and Aston Villa this UCL term.

There is an abundance of attacking talent taking to the field at the Allianz Arena in Germany on Wednesday. BTTS landed in the 1st half of Bayern’s game at the weekend as they ran out 3-1 winners at Stuttgart. Meanwhile, Leverkusen’s Saturday fixture saw them run out 4-1 winners with both teams scoring in the 1st half.

Leverkusen have scored on each of their last 3 trips to the Allianz Arena, form I don’t see changing here. They have bags of quality in attacking with Schick, Wirtz and Boniface all finding the back of the net on the regular this season. Florian Wirtz, arguably the star of this side has scored 6 in 8 UCL appearances this season.

For Bayern Munich, scoring at home should be a formality, having scored in every Bundesliga and UCL game in 24/25 at the Allianz. There’s no looking past Harry Kane when it comes to goals with 21 in the league this season. However, from a defensive standpoint, they allowed 1.87 xG to a poor Celtic side across 2 legs, numbers which Bayer Leverkusen will punish.

Barcelona come into this tie with every chance of taking a lead back across the border to Spain. Benfica are unbeaten in 8 which doesn’t rule out the possibility of the draw but Barcelona themselves are unbeaten in 15. The visitors come into this game off the back of an emphatic 4-0 win against Real Sociedad on Sunday, helped by a red card to Elustondo.

This fixture was arguably the game of the group stage as Barcelona ran out 5-4 winners with a 96th minute winner by Raphinha. The visitors had 3.63 xG, 22 shots and 7 big chances in an emphatic attacking display. Benfica have been resilient in the UCL this season but haven’t won in any of their last 4 at home, conceding 3+ in 3 of their last 4 home UCL games.

Barca are too strong a force for the hosts to cope with despite their form domestically. The visitors are unbeaten in 2025, including a 7-1 win vs Valencia, 5-0 vs Valencia, 4-1 vs Sevilla and a 4-4 draw with Atletico. With the likes of Yamal and Raphinha, Barca have far too much quality in attacking areas for the Portuguese outfit to deal with.

The cards have been flowing for Benfica this season, as per usual. Benfica have picked up 2+ cards in each of their last 5 games, averaging 1.97 cards P/90 across the 24/25 season. In this competition, the averages sky rocket with 2+ cards in every game bar 1 this season with an average 2.4 P/90.

Barcelona don’t commit too many fouls for cards but having an average of 63% possession across all games eventually wears their opposition down. Barca opponents have averaged 2.62 cards P/90 this season with 3.01 P/90 in the UCL. Every side to play Barcelona this season has picked up at least 2 cards, including Benfica. Benfica are a possession heavy side but in recent times when they have had less of the ball they’ve picked up 2 cards (against Barca, Juve and Monaco).

Similar to the Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern game, there is endless attacking talent on display on Wednesday night in France. Maybe we don’t have the likes of Mbappe, Neymar and Messi anymore in Paris but the hosts have still averaged 2.65 xG P/90 in this competition at home as well as 2.76 xG P/90 in all competitions.

English football fans, particularly PL supporting fans, need no reminding of Liverpool’s attacking talent this season. Slot’s side have arguably improved from Klopp’s going forward, managing 2.13 xG and 2.28 goals P/90 this season. There is no better attacking player on the planet right now than Mo Salah who has contributed in 14 goals in his last 9 and managed 55 goal contributions this season.

Over 1.5 goals has landed in each of Liverpool’s last 5 games, a 1-0 loss to Plymouth with stars rested the last time they failed to score. Excluding that outing, they’ve landed over 1.5 goals in 12 games straight. Meanwhile, the Parisians have landed over 1.5 in each of their last 3, seeing 17 goals in the process.

Despite an unbelievable debut season from Arne Slot’s Liverpool, they are still classed as ‘outsiders’ for their trip to Paris. One angle to exploit this misvalue from is the corners market with Liverpool posting prominent numbers all season long. Under Slot, they’ve averaged 5.64 corners P.90 this season, including 6.08 in away games in all competitions.

The last two away days Liverpool have had, to Man City and Aston Villa, may have been viewed as potential banana skins prior to kick off. Liverpool, as they have on every occasion this season, proved any doubters wrong, winning at the Etihad and drawing at Villa Park. They managed 13 corners across the 2 games and won’t shy away from attacking here at all.

When not resting starters, Liverpool have managed 3+ corners in 7 straight away games. This ties in well with PSG’s averages with the French side allowing 3.05 corners P/90 this season. They’ve allowed 3+ in each of their last 5 games, including to the likes of Toulouse and Brest. Man City managed 6 corners at the Parc Des Princes earlier this season.