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Napoli vs Real Madrid Bet Builder

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Napoli vs Real Madrid

Calendar 3rd October
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Bellingham 1+ Shot on target
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Jude has been remarkable since his move to Madrid, and Ancelotti has adapted him to this striker/box crashing midfielder, and to devastating effect.

Bellingham has 6 goals in 7 La Liga matches, he also netted the winner late on at home to Union Berlin in the last round of fixtures.

He’s averaged 1.79 SOT/90, he’s had 1 or more in all bar one game this season and hit the target 3 times at the weekend against Girona.

Football icon Kvaratskhelia 1+ Shot on target
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So far this season, only Victor Osimhen has had more shots on target for Napoli than the Kvara.

The reason I favour Kvara here is two-fold, the odds are far better and also his ability to create chances for himself.

Osimhen is brilliant, but he does require creativity around him to get his opportunities, and likes to hang on the last line of defence and await balls in behind or deliveries in to the box.

Kvara is devastating in 1vs1 duels, and is ambidexterity means he can go either way and take a shot on. I think the Madrid centre halves will give Osimhen a lot of attention, and Rudiger’s presence gives him a very able match up.

However, I think Real lack in the fullback areas, it’s probably the one true weakness in their team and who better to exploit that than one of the most talented wingers on the planet.

Kvara averages 1.36 SOT/90 this season. He’s had 14 shots in his last 3 games, with 4 hitting the target.

Football icon Both teams to score
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These two have 57% and 50% strike rates for BTTS domestically. Respectable, but hardly trailblazing numbers.

However, the quality on show here leads me down this road – one that the bookies agree with with BTTS priced around 1.50 (1/2).

Madrid have averaged a 2.21 xG which is huge, and despite a 1-0 win against Union Berlin; they were far better than that result suggested. I watched that game, and they absolutely battered them. They produced a 3.33 xG, and that was without Vini JR, who is fit to feature tonight and got through 67 minutes in their weekend win.

Napoli have also not been short on chances, averaging a whopping 2.39 xG in Seria A so far, and they come in to this having scored 8 goals in their last 2 matches. Their CL opener saw them win 2-1 at Braga, where they created plenty of chances.

They do look vulnerable in defence though, with Kim Min-Jae’s departure definitely being felt. They conceded a 1.28 xG to Braga and they’ve conceded to the likes of Frosinone, Genoa and Udinese so far this season in SA.

Football icon 4+ Match Cards
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Madrid. Ancelotti. Away in Naples, I think there’s some dark arts on the cards here.

Their fixtures so far in La Liga have averaged 4.25 cards, 2 for, 2.25 drawn. I’d expect that to increase here, in a far more pressurised game against a side who carry a serious threat but also a combative edge which will lead to some big battles across the pitch.

Napoli matches this season have averaged 4.57 cards. Their European matches last season increased to 5.80.

The ref is Clement Turpin, the Frenchman can be feast or famine when it comes to cards but he definitely won’t take any nonsense here and will look to set his stall out. He’s dished out an average of 4 cards per game in Ligue 1 this season. In Europe, across his career he’s averaged 4.11 cards.

There’s plenty of likely culprits across both sides – the midfield looks set to be a warzone, take your pick from Bellingham, Tchouameni, Valverde and Camavinga on the Madrid side, as they face the likes of Zambo Anguissa and Lobotka and Zielinksi.

Individual match ups in isolated areas will be huge too, Vini can expose anyone and Di Lorenzo isn’t shy of a challenge. Similarly for Madrid with Kvara up against Carvajal, who was an absolute foul magnet in their CL campaign last season.

Stake £10
Potential Returns £51
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