Tottenham vs Villarreal Bet Builder Tips, Stats, Best Bets, Predictions

Ex-Arsenal man Nicolas Pepe will be key if Villarreal are to get their Champions League campaign off to a good start against his former club’s North London rivals Tottenham.

The Spanish side have had a decent start in La Liga, beaten only by Atletico Madrid so far after starting the season with 2 wins and a draw. Pepe scored in 2 of those first 3 games, and has had at least one shot on target in 3 of his 4 starts in the league this season. He has had 7 shots on target across these first 4 league games, which is 4 more than any other player for the club in La Liga.

He has had at least one shot on target in 9 of his last 12 league games for Villarreal, playing either as a central striker or somewhere on the right-hand side. Across the whole of last season, Pepe averaged 1.08 shots on target per 90, and only failed to hit the target in 3 of his league starts, so if the visitors are competitive here, a shot on target for the Ivory Coast international looks likely.

Newly-capped England international Djed Spence seems to have nailed down a starting spot at left-back in the absence of Destiny Udogie, and the 25-year-old looks like a great option to commit a foul in what will be his Champions League debut.

The left-back has committed at least one foul in 8 of his last 10 starts for Tottenham, and looking back even further, Spence has fouled in 14 of his last 17 starts for the club. He averaged 1.15 fouls per 90 in all competitions last season, and so far this season that number is similar, currently sitting at 1.17 fouls per 90.

He is likely to be up against Tajon Buchanan on Villarreal’s right, with the Canada international having won 12 fouls in his last 4 starts for the club, including 4 against Atletico Madrid. Buchanan has won at least 2 fouls in 6 consecutive starts for the club, and has also won at least one foul in 5 of his last 6 substitute appearances.

Moving across to the opposite flank in this Spurs defence, we’re also backing right-back Pedro Porro to commit at least one foul in this one. The Spain international has committed a foul in all 5 of his starts this season, at a rate of 1.37 fouls per 90 in all competitions.

With Thomas Frank playing a more settled, and generally deeper defence than his predecessor Ange Postecoglou; Porro is still able to charge forward at the right time, but is also expected to keep his shape and do his defensive duties. With that in mind, it is no surprise that Porro’s foul average has increased sharply from the 0.76 fouls per 90 he committed in all competitions last season.

He will be up against Alberto Moleiro on the Villarreal left, who won 1.32 fouls per 90 in La Liga for Las Palmas last season, winning at least one foul in 12 of his last 17 league games for his former club. Left-back Santi Cardona could also win a foul from Porro here, having won 0.85 fouls per 90 in La Liga for Villarreal last season.

After former club Atletico Madrid bought Mourino back from Deportivo Alaves, they immediately sold the Uruguayan defender to Villarreal on the same day, and he has started all four league games for his new club since.

Mourino has committed 1.75 fouls per 90 in La Liga this season, fouling twice or more in 2 of his 4 starts, and picking up 2 bookings in these 4 games. This is no statistical fluke either, with Mourino committing 1.57 fouls per 90 for Alaves in La Liga in 2024/25. He has fouled in 17 of his last 20 starts in La Liga, so looks a great option to boost our odds here, even at a short price.

He will be up against Spurs’ Mohammed Kudus, who has won 1.67 fouls per 90 in all competitions since his summer switch from West Ham, winning two or more fouls in 3 of his 5 starts to date. Pedro Porro could also definitely win a foul from Mourino, having done so in 9 of his last 13 starts for Tottenham in all competitions.