The playoffs are the most wonderful time of the English Football League calendar and the second legs of the semi-finals tend to bring the most drama with sides desperately chasing their opportunity to play at Wembley and win promotion.
Sunderland lead this tie after a first leg in which they beat Luton 2-1, with goals from Amad Diallo and Trai Hume cancelling out Elijah Adebayo’s opener despite missing half of what they consider their strongest starting XI.
Kenilworth Road should play host to an explosive encounter between two sides with polarising styles and we’ve brought you all the stats you need to build your own Luton vs Sunderland bet builder. Click the link to learn more about how you can create a winning bet builder from our stats pack guide.
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LUTON VS SUNDERLAND Confirmed LINEUPS
Unchanged XI likely for Luton
Luton Town’s consistency under Rob Edwards has largely come from a stable starting XI and that isn’t about to change because they are chasing the tie. Luton were strong for a good period of the game and it took a worldie from Amad Diallo to change things, so expect Edwards to name the same starting XI on Tuesday.
Defensive challenge continues for Mowbray
The big challenge for Tony Mowbray at present is deciding how to avoid obvious defensive weaknesses amid huge injury problems. Sunderland are without Corry Evans, Aji Alese, Dan Ballard and Danny Batth, leaving him short of defensive options. That meant Patrick Roberts and Lynden Gooch playing in more defensive roles than they are used to. If a change is made, it could be that Niall Huggins steps into the fray – he replaced Patrick Roberts with ten minutes to go on Saturday.
LUTON VS SUNDERLAND TEAM STATS
Solidity key to Luton’s rise
Luton Town’s rise up the Championship table under Nathan Jones then Rob Edwards has been built on defensive solidity and their underlying numbers show this isn’t against the odds, Luton sit second for goals conceded and xG against and top for fewest shots on target.
The Hatters’ defensive solidity is matched by a tenacity and aggression in their play so it’s little surprise they rack up cards and draw a lot of them.
Black Cats overperforming going forward
Sunderland are one of the most exciting teams in the league with their brand of youthful energy and attacking prowess but they are definitely overachieving against their underlying numbers, scoring over 0.2 goals more per game than their xG for would suggest.
Mowbray’s side concede as many shots as they take but have been more accurate with their efforts than those they concede. Their exciting, raw style has seen them draw more cards than all but one team in the Championship this season.
LUTON VS SUNDERLAND SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET STATS
Morris dancing up top for Luton
Carlton Morris has been the main man for Luton this year and his appetite for finding the net shows no signs of letting up, taking three or more shots in five of his last six matches and registering two shots on target in a tight affair against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light. His strike partner Elijah Adebayo has taken time to find his feet but had four shots against Sunderland. The former Walsall man has had a shot on target in nine of the last 11 games when he has played over 80 minutes.
Amad the man for Sunderland
Amad Diallo stole the show on Saturday with a wonderful curling strike from an indirect free-kick and it summed up his willingness to try things, racking up three or more shots in five of his last seven outings and having a shot on target in each of his last eight appearances. On the other flank, Jack Clarke is proving dangerous, mustering two or more shots in seven of his last 11 matches and two shots on target against Luton last time out.
LUTON VS SUNDERLAND GOALS AND ASSISTS STATS
Luton relying on their strikers
It’s unsurprising that Luton’s two regular strikers are the players that have done most of their business in front of goal. Carlton Morris has had the season of his life, scoring 20 goals while Elijah Adebayo was the man to step up against Sunderland, prodding home from a set-piece. Given the lack of height in the Sunderland defence at present, an Adebayo goal at 2.80 may be a useful addition to your Luton vs Sunderland bet builder.
Wingers stepping up for Sunderland
With Ross Stewart out injured, Sunderland needed others to step up and in Amad Diallo and Jack Clarke, they have players that have done just that. Diallo has 13 for the season and has found the net in each of his last two matches. While Diallo is scoring, Clarke has come close to a double-double (hitting double figures in goals and in assists) and has finished the season strongly with two goals and six assists in his last eight matches – you can back him to score or assist in your Luton vs Sunderland bet builder at 3.10.
LUTON VS SUNDERLAND PASSING STATS
Luton not worth a look in the passing market
Luton are good at a lot of things but dominance in possession isn’t one of them, averaging 46.2% across the Championship season and having 40% or less in each of their last four matches. In their loss at the Stadium of Light, Gabriel Osho attempted the most passes with 37 and the likelihood of any player attempting 50 or more here is unlikely.
Sunderland build from the back with Hume and Gooch
If Sunderland are to get a result here, they are going to have to be confident in possession and that will start from the back through O’Nien, Hume and Gooch. O’Nien has averaged 57.4 passes per 90 minutes played this season despite playing a number of different positions. Notably, in the reverse fixture, it was Trai Hume and Lynden Gooch that saw most of the ball, attempting over 60 passes each from their wide centre-back roles.
LUTON CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Doughty could be in trouble against wing wizards
If Luton are going to get the better of Sunderland, they are going to need to be at their physical, aggressive best and that means getting Morris and Adebayo involved as much as possible against a weakened Sunderland backline – the pair committed seven fouls combined on Saturday – and stopping Sunderland’s wide men at source, meaning Alfie Doughty will have his work cut out again – he makes over 1.5 fouls per 90 and committed four on Saturday.
Unsurprisingly, it’s Diallo and Clarke that cause most trouble for the opposition. In Diallo, Sunderland have a whippet with real pace who commits to over five dribbles per 90 minutes. He has been fouled 12 times in his last four outings, including four times against Luton. In Clarke, Sunderland have a threat down their left, committing over four dribbles per 90 minutes and being fouled twice.
Luton vs Sunderland Key Matchups
Alfie Doughty vs Amad Diallo
Cody Drameh vs Jack Clarke
Elijah Adebayo vs Luke O’Nien
SUNDERLAND CARDS AND FOULS STATS
O’Nien the bad boy for Sunderland
Despite not being a natural centre-back, Luke O’Nien has filled in expertly and he has had to step up as one of few experienced bodies in the Sunderland XI. He isn’t afraid to get stuck in from his new, deeper, position, committing two or more fouls in five of his last eight appearances. At the other end, Joe Gelhardt has shown himself to have a naughty side, fouling an opponent in each of his last four matches and committing a foul every 75 minutes in a Sunderland shirt.
O’Nien’s work will be cut out because he up against Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo, who have both been fouled more than once per 90 minutes played with the latter attempting over four dribbles per 90. The pair were fouled a combined three times on Saturday. Elsewhere, Tom Lockyer completes far less dribbles but does end up drawing a lot of fouls, averaging over a foul per 90.
Luton vs Sunderland Key Matchups
Luke O’Nien vs Elijah Adebayo
Joe Gelhardt vs Tom Lockyer
Niall Huggins vs Alfie Doughty
LUTON VS SUNDERLAND BET BUILDER TIPS AND PICKS OF THE PACK
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Luton Town vs Sunderland
16th May
kick off 20:00 Luton over 1.5 cards
Sunderland drawing 2.54 cards per 90.
Luton drawing 2.11 cards per 90.
Average of 5.66 cards per game in last 12 Championship play-off semi-final second legs.
Carlton Morris 1+ Shots on TargetMorris averaging 1.02 shots on target per 90.
Morris had a shot on target in 5 of last 6 matches
Luton chasing game and Morris will get chances.
Elijah Adebayo 1+ Shots on TargetAdebayo averaging 0.7 shots on target per 90.
Adebayo had a shot on target in reverse leg.
Sunderland have no natural centre-backs.
Elijah Adebayo 2+ FoulsAdebayo committing 1.79 fouls per 90.
Adebayo committed 4 fouls in first leg.
Luton will be direct and Adebayo should have a lot of involvement in duels.
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