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Chelsea vs Arsenal
10th November
kick off 16:30 Over 5.5 Cards Nicolas Jackson To Have 1+ Shots On Target Reece James To Be Fouled 1+ Times
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Leg 1: Both Teams To Score
Arsenal’s defensive struggles have been obvious for some time now, with a defence that rivalled any in Europe last season now having failed to keep a Premier League clean sheet since September 15. That is six straight for the Gunners in which the opponents have scored, including games against Southampton and Leicester.
Both teams to score has landed in four of Arsenal’s last six league games, and on the two occasions it has not landed, it has been because Arsenal failed to score. They should have an easier time of it on that front as they go up against a Chelsea side that have not kept a clean sheet in five league games.
The hosts have scored in nine of their 10 league games this season, only drawing a blank against Man City on matchday 1. They have not been defensively solid in the slightest, however, conceding goals in eight of their 10 league games.
Both teams to score has landed in five straight Chelsea games. The Blues have enough offensive firepower to breach the Arsenal backline but have not shown enough defensive quality to suggest they can shut out an Arsenal side desperate for a result here.
Leg 2: Over 5.5 Cards
Chelsea are the Premier League’s most carded side this season, averaging an astonishing 3.80 cards per game. Not only are they the least disciplined team in the league, but they also drag their opponents down to their level, as only three teams have seen their opponents carded more than the 3.50 bookings per game seen by Chelsea.
Arsenal are no saints either, having seen 2.80 bookings per game themselves. Their opponents have been booked a similar amount too, picking up 2.70 cards per game in the league so far this season.
Seven of Chelsea’s last eight games in the Premier League have gone over this 5.5 card line, with Chelsea alone seeing six or more bookings awarded to just their players in three of these eight. Arsenal, meanwhile, have seen over 5.5 cards in five of their last eight league games.
Referee Michael Oliver is no stranger to the big occasion and can be relied upon to stamp his authority on the game if needed. He has awarded 5.11 bookings per game in the Premier League this season and has shown six or more cards in four out of his last six league fixtures.
Leg 3: Nicolas jackson To HAVE 1+ shOTS oN tARGET
This is the selection that keeps on giving, as we have picked it for Chelsea games consistently throughout this season, and the Senegalese striker is yet to let us down once.
Only Noni Madueke, of regular Chelsea starters, has a better shot on target rate than Nicolas Jackson, who is averaging 1.49 per 90 in the Premier League this season. Jackson has now had a shot on target in all 10 of his starts for Chelsea this season, along with a shot on target in his one substitute appearance, 28 minutes off the bench against Servette in the Conference League play-offs.
Over half (56.5%) of his shots find the target, an impressive strike rate that suggests Jackson will continue his shot on target streak here, with just two shots needed for him to test the goalkeeper on average.
Arsenal have looked vulnerable defensively as of late, winless in three in the Premier League and falling 1-0 to Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. That suggests that Jackson will get chances, and his efficient shot quality means at least one should work Raya in the Gunners’ goal.
lEG 4: Reece James To Be Fouled 1+ Times
After a torrid time with injuries over the last couple of seasons, Reece James has now made three consecutive Premier League starts for Chelsea, playing the full 90 minutes against both Newcastle and Man United.
James has won a foul in all three of these appearances for Chelsea this season, being fouled twice against Newcastle and once against both Man United and Liverpool. That makes for an average of 1.54 fouls won per 90.
He has also averaged well over one foul drawn per 90 in each of his last three prior Premier League seasons, drawing 1.06, 1.30, and 1.50 respectively.
The English full-back will line up on the left for Chelsea here, with Malo Gusto out on the right, which will put him up against Bukayo Saka. Saka has fouled 0.98 times per 90 for Arsenal this season and has now fouled at least once in each of his last six starts for club and country.
Arsenal right-back Ben White could also get involved, having fouled 0.75 times per 90 in the league this season, notching at least one foul in seven of his nine starts for Arsenal.
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chelsea vs arsenal predicted lineups
CHELSEA VS ARSENAL TEAM STATS
CHELSEA VS ARSENAL SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET stats
CHELSEA VS ARSENAL GOALS AND ASSISTS stats
CHELSEA CARDS AND FOULS stats
Arsenal Cards and Fouls Stats
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