With their Champions League future hanging in the balance, Chelsea welcome Borussia Dortmund to Stamford Bridge this evening, aiming to claw back a one-goal deficit against the German giants in the clubs’ finely-balanced Round of 16 second-leg tie.
The Blues were perhaps a little unfortunate to leave Signal Iduna Park with nothing last month, though Chelsea’s campaign under Graham Potter has been a lengthy tale of missed chances and fluffed lines. However, a shot at redemption and a place in the tournament’s quarter-finals is on the table in London today.
Below, I’ve laid out by stats pack for this evening’s showpiece showdown, which contains enough info to satisfy even the greediest of bet-building aficionados. If you need some pointers on how to extract the most value out of the data, have a read of my Stats Pack Guide.
Predicted Lineups
Chelsea’s list of absentees this evening is long once again and Thiago Silva, Edouard Mendy, Cesar Azpilicueta, N’Golo Kante and Armando Broja are among those out injured. Reece James has a chance of making the squad however, if he passes a late fitness test.
Pierre-Emile Aubameyang is not registered for Champions League action and cannot face his former club, so German international Kai Havertz should lead the line against Bundesliga outfit Dortmund. Mateo Kovacic could join Enzo Fernandez in central midfield. Mason Mount is serving a suspension and cannot feature.
Borussia Dortmund have several personnel issues of their own to contend with ahead of this evening’s clash and Karim Adeyemi, Youssoufa Moukoko, Matey Morey, Abdoulaye Kamara and Julien Duranville are all in the treatment room at present.
Julian Ryerson is serving a suspension, so expect Marius Wolf to start at right-back. Former Liverpool midfielder Emre Can and ex-West Ham striker Sebastian Haller will both be eager to impress on their return to England, as will Three Lions international Jude Bellingham.
Team Stats
Chelsea carved out a much-need victory over Leeds on Saturday, though their 1-0 triumph was typically tight and the Blues have been hitting just 0.96 goals and 3.72 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League overall this term.
Defensively Chelsea don’t tend to concede many under Graham Potter, and they haven’t allowed opponents to clock more than 1.5 in xG against them in any of their last nine game fixtures in all competitions. 100% of Chelsea’s last games have also featured under 2.5 goals, a line that has odds of 10/11 attached to it today.
Chelsea’s Premier League matches have been littered with cards and the story was similar in Germany last month for the first leg, where a whopping ten bookings were handed out. With so much riding on the result, over 4.5 cards could be one to consider this evening again at 8/11.
Dortmund have won a superb ten games on the spin in all competitions and Die Schwarzgelben are matching Bayern Munich stride-for-stride in the Bundesliga title race, for the moment at least. Their domestic stats make for impressive reading, though they do tend to offer up a decent amount of chances to their opponents, as evidenced by their 12.83 shots against per 90 figures.
Last month, those same defensive frailties were on show, even if they weren’t properly punished. Dortmund mustered just 14 attempts to Chelsea’s 21 in Germany, and the Blues had a meatier eight strikes on target to BVB’s two. I like the look of Chelsea to have 5+ shots on target again in this evening’s second leg at 1/2 against that same generous Dortmund backline.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Six different Chelsea players lodged shots on target in last month’s first-leg in Germany, and unsurprisingly, potent pair Kai Havertz and Joao Felix were among those to clock accurate attempts against Dortmund.
Interestingly, Saturday’s win over Leeds was the first time Felix has failed to register a shot on target in a game for Chelsea since his arrival in January, though the 23-year-old’s sights should be zeroed again this evening and he is priced at 10/11 to hit 2+ shots on target. Havertz meanwhile, looks like a comfortable pick at 4/11 to finish the contest with 1+ accurate attempts.
Borussia Dortmund managed to rack up just two attempts on target in their first-leg triumph over Chelsea in mid-February, and those blows were landed by Karim Adeyemi, who is injured for the return fixture, and Julian Brandt – who can be a peripheral figure in tougher games.
In the markets, I’ve taken a shine to holding midfielder Emre Can, however. The anchorman, who enjoys a punt from distance, had three shots from outside the box against Chelsea last month and the 29-year-old is keenly priced at 8/11 to have just one effort in this evening’s second leg.
Player Goals and Assists
Chelsea’s forwards have been frustratingly unreliable for much of the season and their modest goal tallies shine an unflattering light on the quality of their chance-finishing skills. Indeed, the Blues’ winning goal against Leeds at the weekend was hit by centre-half, Wesley Fofana.
Two of the four goals notched by Chelsea in their last nine games were been scored by defenders (Fofana & Koulibaly), and with their more attack-minded players continuing to flounder, adding any of them to your bet builder docket as a goal-scoring option has the potential to cripple your coupon.
Julian Brandt, Giovanni Reyna and the injured Youssoufa Moukoko have been blazing a trail through the Bundesliga this season, hitting the net 19 times between them, though Brandt (one) is the only member of that trio to have notched in the Champions League.
Jude Bellingham has popped up with four goals in six starts in the competition this term and the 19-year-old seems to rise to the biggest occasions. Bellingham is a giant 10/3 to either score or assist at Stamford Bridge, though it is worth remembering that Chelsea have conceded just twice in six fixtures at that venue.
Player passes
Chelsea have become ball-retention experts under Graham Potter and the Blues controlled 52.5% of the possession in Germany last month. Record signing Enzo Fernandez has already become the team’s puppet master in midfield and the Argentinean played more passes than any other player on the pitch at Signal Iduna Park in February (66).
You have to look at targets of 90+ passes for Fernandez (13/10) to find value today however, so it might be better to look at someone like Wesley Fofana in the 70+ passes stakes at 2/5. The defender hit 84 passes against Leeds on Saturday.
Dortmund’s best distributors in Germany last month hit passes in the 42 to 55 range and I don’t expect any of their combatants to improve on those tallies at Stamford Bridge today.
That makes finding odds with enough bite in the markets a tricky task, especially when you see prices as narrow as 1/5 attached to players like Niklas Sule in the 50+ passes arena. Emre Can did play 42 passes against Chelsea last month and if the holding midfielder can up his numbers ever so slightly, he could beat a 50 passes target at 8/11, though that ceiling might be tough for the 29-year-old to reach.
Chelsea Cards
There were 25 fouls committed and ten cards handed out in last week’s tetchy first leg, so here is where you can really pad out your coupon this evening in what should be an equally friction-filled face-off.
Kai Havertz is a niggly-foul machine up front in both the Premier and Champions League for Chelsea and the combative German gave away three free kicks in his homeland last month. Havertz looks a solid option at 8/12 to commit at least two more today.
Reece James, who was also on the naughty list in February (two fouls, one card) can be added to your bet builder at 8/15 to commit just one foul today, while Kalidou Koulibaly could complete the set at 3/10 in the same market. The 31-year-old is also of interest at 11/4 to see yellow for the eighth time in all comps.
Niklas Sule (55 passes) orchestrated the majority of Dortmund’s moves from the back in Germany last month, so expect Kai Havertz to press and pressure him when the visitors are in possession later on. The fouls count should tick over nicely there as a result.
Marco Reus has a wealth of experience to lean on in his duel with Reece James on the flank, though the Chelsea defender will be determined to dominate his 33-year-old opponent physically at Stamford Bridge.
Sebastian Haller meanwhile, who has been fouled 1.3 times per 90 in the Champions League this term, faces the imposing Kalidou Koulibaly. Expect those two to get in a tangle at times.
Match-Ups to watch
Kai Havertz vs Niklas Sule
Reece James vs Marco Reus
Kalidou Koulibaly vs Sebastian Haller
Borussia Dortmund Cards
Jude Bellingham, Emre Can, Salih Ozcan and Niklas Sule all their names taken by the referee in last month’s first-leg and all four players look like strong candidates in the card and fouls department again for this evening’s climactic contest
Emre Can will be trying to keep tabs on the prodigiously talented Joao Felix, and the German, who committed four fouls in the first meeting between the clubs, is available at 10/11 to commit 2+ more later today.
Jude Bellingham will be working hard to disrupt the flow of Enzo Fernandez’s passing through central areas and the teenager is priced at 21/10 to pick up his second caution in as many Champions League games. Elsewhere, in the same midfield battleground, Salih Ozcan (10/11) is also capable of fouling his adversaries at least twice.
I expect plenty of bruises and knocks to be collected in midfield today, where technically-gifted Chelsea duo Enzo Fernandez and Mateo Kovacic (fouled 1.5 times p/90 in UCL) could be clunked about by the combative Emre Can and Salih Ozcan.
Joao Felix’s clever use of space and ability to float between the lines should make him a target for no-nonsense tackler Emre Can. Felix was fouled three times in Germany last month and he is in line for similar treatment this evening at Stamford Bridge.
Match-Ups to watch
Emre Can vs Joao Felix
Jude Bellingham vs Enzo Fernandez
Salih Ozcan vs Mateo Kovacic
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
I’ve done some digging using the stats pack, and I’ve compiled myself a bet builder that looks pretty juicy.
Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund
7th March
kick off 20:00 Joao Felix 3+ shots
Felix averages 3.96 shots per game. He had 4 in the away leg. His shots stats since joining Chelsea: 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2.
Enzo Fernandez 1+ shotsFernandez averages 1.42 shots per game, he also had 4 in the first leg. His shots stats since joining Chelsea: 1, 2, 4, 0, 1, 3.
Chelsea had 19 shots in the first leg, 8 on target and dominated throughout. Dortmund will likely sit in and leave it to Chelsea to break them down.
Emre Can 1+ foulsIncredibly, Nico Schlotterbeck was the only outfielder who started who didn’t make a foul in the last leg.
A lot of Chelsea players draw some very high foul numbers: Gallagher (2.37), Felix (2.33), Loftus-Cheek (2.21), Mudryk (2.00), Ziyech (1.88) & Fernandez (1.63).
Emre Can averages 1.44 fouls/90 and made a ridiculous 4 in the first leg.
Jude Bellingham 1+ foulsJude Bellingham averages 1.18 fouls/90. He made 1 foul in the previous leg. He’s made a foul in each of his last 4 games.
Marco Reus 1+ foulsMarco Reus averages 1.32 fouls/90. He didn’t feature in the first leg, he’s made 1 or more fouls in 5 of his last 6.
Load my picks at 3/1 
