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Chelsea vs Luton Stats and Bet Builder Tips Preview

Chelsea vs Luton Stats and Bet Builder Tips Preview Featured Image

Mauricio Pochettino is still looking for his first win as Chelsea manager following a 3-1 defeat to West Ham last week. A crucial missed penalty with the match in the balance cost them at the London Stadium. Chelsea drew their first home match 1-1 vs Liverpool and are clear favourites facing newly promoted Luton Town. Failure to win this game really would send the vultures into orbit.

The visiting Hatters did not have a game last week due to their own stadium Kenilworth Road still being developed to meet Premier League standards. Rob Edwards’ men lost their opening fixture 4-1 away to Brighton and they are big favourites to get relegated this season. Will the lack of a competitive match last week help or hinder them?

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Chelsea vs Luton Predicted lineups

Caicedo set for full debut

Carney Chukwuemeka got injured vs West Ham last week and faces at least six weeks on the sidelines following surgery. Wesley Fofana and Christopher Nkunku are out long term whilst right back Reece James also remains on the sidelines. Conor Gallagher should now play in a more advanced role with Moises Caicedo handed a full debut. Pochettino has been using a 3-4-2-1 system so far this season which is unlikely to change here.

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Barkley pushing for a start against former club? 

Luton are likely to operate in a 3-5-2 system again. There probably won’t be too many changes compared to the side that lost to Brighton. Former Chelsea man Ross Barkley could come into contention for a midfield berth with Jacob Brown pushing Adebayo for a spot upfront. The likes of Reece Burke, Gabriel Osho and Jordan Clark are all likely out for several weeks.

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Chelsea vs Luton team stats

Londoners already underachieving

It is only a small sample size but Chelsea are already underachieving at both ends of the field. Their xG of 3.54 has only been converted into two goals, not helped by Enzo Fernandez’s missed penalty last week. The Blues have already conceded four goals but an xGA of 3.08 suggests they’ve been slightly unfortunate. This is clearly a work in progress for Mauricio Pochettino. They’ve fired exactly four shots on target in each fixture so far and racked up nine corners on their own last week vs West Ham.

Hatters likely to give up plenty of shots

Luton have only played one game and it was noticeable how many shots they conceded (27) vs Brighton. They did at least register three shots on target themselves and Carlton Morris got on the scoresheet from the penalty spot. They also won the corner battle on the South Coast 7-6 and this is a team who will play for set pieces. The Hatters only had 29% of the ball and are likely to play solely on the counter-attack at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea vs Luton players to watch

Jackson ready to open his Chelsea scoring account

Nicholas Jackson cost Chelsea £37 million transferring from Villarreal in the summer. There is some pressure on the Senegalese striker to get his first goal for the club and a home fixture vs Luton Town should suit him perfectly. Jackson averages three shots per game this season and he can be backed at 1.40 for that to happen again. This looks a generous price to add to your Chelsea bet builder on a man who will be desperate to open his goalscoring account in West London. 

Enzo to dictate the play in the heart of midfield

Chelsea are going to have a lot of the ball here, probably at least 70% possession and it might be even higher. The Blues have racked up 75% vs West Ham and 65% vs Liverpool. Three players, Thiago Silva, Enzo Fernandez and Axel Disasi all average over 100 passes per 90 minutes. That trio are right at the heart of operations for Chelsea and all three should last the whole match barring injury. Fernandez is so heavily involved that the Argentine gets the nod at 1.36 for 90 or more passes. This is very obtainable in a fixture they should dominate with ease.

Gallagher looking for more opportunities

Conor Gallagher is likely to move into a more advanced midfield role in the absence of Carney Chukwuemeka. This should give him more opportunities to shoot and score. He fired two attempts vs West Ham last week and should be good for at least that number vs Luton Town. Gallagher can be backed at 1.30 for two or more shots which looks like a nice safe addition to your Chelsea bet builder.

Morris masterclass for the visitors

Carlton Morris is by far Luton’s biggest threat and was their top scorer in the Championship. He scored from the penalty spot against Brighton and can be a serious physical handful. Luton will not get that many chances but will be dangerous from set pieces and in fast breaks. Morris fired in four shots vs Brighton and had two on target. He is a generous price of 2.0 just for one or more shots on target and 1.62 to fire in a couple of shots. The Luton striker could bring some value to your bet builder. 

Chelsea vs Luton Matchups to watch

Nicolas Jackson vs Mads Andersen

The former Barnsley defender struggled against Brighton, racking up four fouls and also going into the referee’s book. Chelsea might target him after such a performance and Nicolas Jackson upfront could be a handful. He is 1.22 to commit one or more fouls which actually looks big. Odds of 2.10 on Andersen to have two or more fouls also appears very appealing to add to your Luton bet builder.

Raheem Sterling vs Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu

In the 3-4-2-1 system that Pochettino has been using, Raheem Sterling has been a real livewire popping up everywhere. He has been given a licence to roam more than some of his previous positions out on the wing. He drew a staggering five fouls out of West Ham last week and should simply have far too much class, quality and agility to Luton. Several players will likely come under pressure but midfielder Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu looks a massive price at 1.67 to produce one or more fouls.

Mpanzu has been with Luton right from their non-league days and made a horrible mistake vs Brighton. He’s already a man under pressure and we could see him make some desperate lunges in this game. He produced three fouls vs Brighton and it’s a mystery why he’s such a big price to commit an offence.

Conor Gallagher vs Tahith Chong  

Gallagher has actually been on his best behaviour so far this season. The 23-year-old is known for his dirty play and averaged over two fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season, racking up a massive 11 cards. He has only produced one foul in each fixture this term, but it might be because he’s been in a more responsible deeper role.

Against Luton he should be free from the shackles to press more, thus increasing the chances he gives away more fouls. Tahith Chong is an interesting signing for Luton this summer and is the most likely of all the Luton midfielders to cause some problems to Chelsea with his skill. Gallagher is a short price 1.13 for one foul but 1.67 for two fouls or more has greater appeal for any Chelsea bet builder.

Chelsea vs Luton bet builder and picks of the pack

We have prepared a four-leg Chelsea vs Luton Town Bet Builder for your consideration, feel free to pick and choose between the selections and change them out for your own.

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Chelsea vs Luton Town

Calendar 25th August
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Nicolas Jackson 3+ shots
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Jackson cost nearly £40 million and he will want to start repaying Chelsea soon. He will be desperate for a goal which means he might make some poorer choices in front of goal and shoot more regularly. He averages three shots per game so far and should be lining up Luton for some serious shooting practice.

Football icon Enzo Fernandez 90+ passes
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Always a slightly risky bet that the player doesn’t get substituted off early because at least 75 or 80 minutes of game-time will be needed to cover this. Fernandez averages over 100 passes per game in the Premier League this season and Chelsea are going to have tonnes of possession.

Football icon Carlton Morris 2+ shots
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By far Luton’s biggest attacking threat. He managed four shots vs Brighton in a game they were clearly second-best. Luton will get some chances here and nearly all of them will likely fall to Morris. He’s also on penalties should the Hatters get another spot kick.

Football icon Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu 1+ foul
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Produced three fouls on his Premier League debut. Could this league be a step too far for him? He looks a massive price to foul at least once vs this star-studded Chelsea midfield.

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