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Chelsea vs Newcastle
27th October
kick off 14:00 Nicolas Jackson To Have 1+ Shots On Target Joelinton To Have 2+ Shots Sandro Tonali To Be Fouled 1+ Times
In this article
Leg 1: Both Teams To Score
Newcastle have certainly hit something of a sticky patch after their 1-1 draw with Man City and we can understand the reservations about backing them to score after two straight blanks, but the underlying data suggests they have been unlucky, as opposed to genuinely struggling.
Eddie Howe’s side have somehow scored just once (from the penalty spot) in their last three games, despite accumulating 5.7 xG. They had over 2.0 xG against both Everton and Brighton, but just could not force the ball home. That sort of misfortune is unlikely to continue for long and if they can keep creating chances, the goals will come.
Prior to this run Newcastle had seen both teams to score land in five straight league games. Chelsea, meanwhile, have kept only two clean sheets this season, being fortunate to do so against Bournemouth and then running into a West Ham team who just did not turn up in their late September match.
With the Blues having scored in seven of their eight league games, only failing to do so against Man City, we expect them to get on the scoresheet, and their lacklustre defence should give Newcastle plenty of chances to do the same.
Leg 2: Nicolas Jackson To Have 1+ sHOTS oN tARGET
Nicolas Jackson to have a shot on target is a selection we have been pushing all season, but with very good reason. The price has remained way too high for a striker who has been consistently scoring and shooting efficiently all season long. It is beginning to fall now, but it is still worth backing Jackson here.
The Senegal international averages 1.62 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League and has bagged a very creditable six goals in eight games. Jackson scored and had a shot on target last time out in what could have been a difficult game against Liverpool. He should be full of confidence and that should enable him to continue his impressive shot on target streak which has now been extended to nine straight games in all competitions for Chelsea.
He looks to have every chance of notching another shot on target against a Newcastle side that have allowed four or more shots on target in six of their eight league games, and five or more in five of those eight.
lEG 3: jOELINTON tO hAVE 2+ shOTS
Only Alexander Isak and Harvey Barnes have taken more shots per 90 than Joelinton for Newcastle in the Premier League this season. The striker-turned-midfielder may not score often but has never lost his shooting instinct from his time as a number nine.
The 28-year-old has taken at least two shots in four straight Premier League starts for Newcastle, including a huge four shots against both Everton and Brighton. Since Sandro Tonali returned to the starting XI on a regular basis, it has become Joelinton’s job to crash the penalty area, drastically increasing his shot attempts.
Against Man City, Tonali’s first league start since his ban, Joelinton took two shots, and has had four in each of his last two. Newcastle will have less shots than they did in either of their last two games, but the Brazilian can certainly still clear this line here.
The Blues have conceded an average of 13.0 shots per 90 this season, and they have conceded 15 or more shots in four of their last five games. If Newcastle can approach this territory, Joelinton will surely have contributed at least two to their total.
lEG 4: sANDRO toNALI to bE fOULED 1+ tiMES
This price looks very appealing for Sandro Tonali to be fouled at least once, with the Italy international having drawn an impressive 2.73 fouls per 90 in the Premier League since returning from his 10-month ban.
Tonali has started three games in the league for Newcastle since being available for selection again and has won at least one foul in all three, being fouled twice against Man City, three times against Everton and once against Brighton, despite being hooked off after 64 minutes.
Across his seven appearances for the club in all competitions, Tonali was fouled in six, drawing multiple fouls in four of these six. Impressively, three of these seven games were off the bench, as was his only Newcastle game without winning a foul, where he played just 17 minutes.
He will be up against Chelsea’s midfield pair of Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez, who have committed 1.92 and 0.82 fouls per 90 so far this season. Caicedo has committed at least one foul in all but one of his Chelsea appearances this season, whilst Fernandez has fouled in four straight league starts.
Feel free to use our Stats Pack Guide alongside the Stats Pack itself if you want to make the most out of the numbers.
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Chelsea vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Chelsea vs Newcastle team stats
Chelsea vs Newcastle Shots and shots on target stats
Chelsea vs Newcastle goals and assists stats
Chelsea Cards and Fouls Stats
Newcastle Cards and Fouls Stats
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