It’s been a season of contrasting fortunes for Chelsea & Newcastle. Despite an excessive £600m war chest courtesy of Todd Boehly, Chelsea have struggled immensely, languishing in the bottom half of the Premier League. With Frank Lampard boasting a measly 13%-win record
across two teams this season, he will be keen to amend this and end this turgid campaign on a
high.
Newcastle on the other hand have had a spectacular season, qualifying for the Champions
League for the first time in 20 years. Eddie Howe & his right-hand man Jason Tindall have
surpassed expectations and have had Geordies dreaming of European adventures.
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Chelsea vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Return for Felix
After a 4-1 hammering at the hands of Manchester United, don’t be surprised to see Lampard
ring the changes. Chelsea have plenty of depth & an abundance of young talent in their ranks,
so it will be intriguing to see how Lampard lines up in his final game before handing the reigns
over to Mauricio Pochettino. After scoring off the bench on Thursday, Joao Felix is expected to
return to the starting line-up.
Injury woes for Toon
With a tight schedule to end the season, injuries have started to mount up for Newcastle.
Unexpected midfield hero Joelinton & goalscoring midfielder Joe Willock are out with injuries,
meaning a potential rare start for Scottish youngster Elliot Anderson in the midfield. England
international Nick Pope could be out with a hand injury, which could lead to a start for Martin
Dubravka in goal.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Team Stats
Goals at both ends at the Bridge
Chelsea games see an average of 2.24 goals, with Lampard’s men scoring a goal a game from a 1.28 XG and conceding 1.24 goals a game from a 1.37 XG against. Shots tend to be a common
theme at both ends of the pitch, having 12.41 shots per game and conceding 11.46.
Chelsea games see 10.22 corners per game. Cards can be a rarity at Chelsea, with their games
seeing 4.16 cards on average.
Newcastle efficient at both ends
Newcastle average 1.81 goals per game, showing their clinical side in front of goal. At the other
end, they excel at shutting out opponents, conceding only 0.86 goals per game, with their
matches averaging 2.67 goals. Whilst they’re underachieving their XG in front of goal (1.81
goals per game from 1.9 XG), they concede less goals per game (0.86) than their 1.01 XG against suggests they should.
Eddie Howe’s side aren’t afraid to let fly, averaging 14.92 shots per game, whilst conceding
9.73. St James’ Park is the place to go for corners, with Newcastle games seeing 11.33 corners
on average, getting 7.22 corners whilst giving away 4.11. Newcastle games are relatively low on
the card front, with referees brandishing an average of 3.9 cards per game.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Shot happy Felix
Whilst Joao Felix may not have lived up to expectations after his arrival on loan from Atletico
Madrid, he has shown he is not afraid to shoot, with the Portuguese forward shooting over 4
times per 90. 6 goal striker Raheem Sterling is another shot happy forward option, averaging
1.85 shots 90. Young left back Lewis Hall has demonstrated his tenderness to shoot, with 1.60
shots per 90. Don’t be surprised to see Noni Madueke (1.46 Shots p90) & Conor Gallagher (1.57
Shots per 90) letting fly.
Sharp-shooting strikers
Eddie Howe is blessed with a plethora of attacking talent, with 18 goal Callum Wilson seeing 3.4 shots per 90 & record signing Aleksander Isak averaging 2.89. Elliot Anderson (2.69 P90) &
Miguel Almiron (2.40 P90) helping to take on the shooting workload. Swiss centre back Fabian
Schar is confident on the ball, shown by his 1.62 shots per 90 when stepping out of defence.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Goal and Assists Stats
Impotent Chelsea
Despite spending over £600m this season, Chelsea do not have a recognised ‘number 9.’ Their
top scorer chart makes for bleak reading, with Kai Havertz topping the table with 7 goals.
Raheem Sterling is next best with 6, closely followed by Joao Felix on 4. They also lack a creative lynchpin, with Sterling’s measly 3 assists putting him out on top. Conor Gallaghers new advanced role has seen 4 goal contributions and may be one to look at if after a bet in the
goal/assist market.
Goals Galore
Newcastle rank 5th for goals scored this season, thanks to 3 players all scoring 10+. Callum
Wilson boasts 18, Miggy Almiron 11 & Aleksandar Isak has 10. This front 3 contribution has
more goals than the entire Chelsea team. Bruno Guimaraes boasts 9 goal contributions (4 goals & 5 assists) from midfield, whilst Kieran Trippier’s pinpoint deliveries has seen him record 7 assists.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Passing Stats
Passing Maestro Enzo
Despite sitting in 12th, Chelsea average 58.50% possession and should have the Lionshare of
possession at home to Newcastle side who average 52.75%. Enzo Fernandez has been a rare
bright spot in a bleak season, with the World Cup winner averaging 79.4 passes per game, at a
success rate of 88.3%. The Argentines ability to dictate the tempo and link defence and midfield is a crucial skillset for Chelsea’s possession-based football. With Chelsea likely to play a back 3, the passing ability of veteran Thiago Silva (76.2 passes per game), Wesley Fofana (63.8 passes per game) & Trevoh Chalobah (63.5 passes per game) will be imperative to the build-up.
Full backs key in buildup
Centre backs are normally the highest passes in a team, but Eddie Howe’s full backs seem to be the ones to rely on in possession. The experienced Kieran Trippier averages 56.1 passes per
game, with left back Matt Targett a few passes off at just over 50 per game. Aswell as being
impressive with his goal contributions, Bruno Guimaraes has shown his passing ability,
averaging 54.2 passes per game.
Chelsea Cards and Fouls Stats
Gallagher to foul
Connor Gallagher is a player renowned for his work rate & relentless pressing. This often gets
him on the wrong side with the referee, averaging 1.92 fouls per 90 and picking up 12 cards.
Raheem Sterling likes to press from the front and averages 1.05 fouls per game. Cezar
Azpilicueta’s pace has gone with age, and this is apparent in the 1.5 fouls games he makes per
90.
Bruno Guimaraes has proven a class act in the Newcastle midfield, and the Brazilian draws a staggering 2.70 fouls P/90. He’ll be flanked by the likes of Anderson and Longstaff, with the trio combining for a hard working and robust midfield that Chelsea will likely have to foul if they are to get anything after this one.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Key Matchups
Conor Gallagher vs Bruno Guimaraes
Wesley Fofana vs Callum Wilson
Cesar Azpilicueta vs Alexander Isak
Newcastle Cards and Fouls Stats
All Action Guimaraes
Bruno Guimaraes is a player who’s involved in all aspects of the game and not afraid to get
stuck in, averaging 1.47 fouls per game, which has seen him booked 7 times. Aleksander Isak
and Callum Wilson both average over 1 foul per game, with Eddie Howe putting real emphasis
on pressing from the front. With a packed Newcastle midfield, don’t be surprised to see
Gallagher rack up the fouls.
If there’s one thing that the Chelsea side are capable of doing, it’s drawing fouls. The Blues are able to boast a number of talented players, that for whatever reason haven’t been able to click this season, all of whom are comfortable in tight spaces. Joao Felix’s 2.77 fouls drawn P/90 certainly stands out, whilst Conor Gallagher again will surely make this an entertaining midfield battle.
Man United vs Fulham key matchups
Bruno Guimaraes vs Conor Gallagher
Fabian Schar vs Joao Felix
Callum Wilson vs Wesley Fofana
Chelsea vs Newcastle Bet Builder Tips and Picks of the Pack
Two big names in English football, and it should make for an exciting affair. I’ve used the stats above to help pick out a bet builder, and you can check it out below.
Take a look at my Free Bets page whilst you’re at if you’re looking to sign up with a new bookie.
Chelsea vs Newcastle
28th May
kick off 16:30 Callum Wilson 1+ shots on target
Callum Wilson averages 1.50 shots on target P/90.
He’s managed at least 1 in 5 of his last 7.
Chelsea were at sixes and sevens on Thursday, and Rashford managed 3 shots on target in 45 minutes.
Over 1.5 GoalsNewcastle games average 2.67 goals per game, Chelsea games average 2.24
Over 9.5 cornersNewcastle games average 11.33 corners per game. Chelsea games average 10.22
Newcastle to win or drawNewcastle have only lost twice in their last 13 games- Chelsea have only won 1 game in this time.
