The last of the FA Cup fourth round ties takes place to fill our Monday Night football voids, and it’s live on ITV4. League One promotion hopefuls on fine form host the not-so-high performing Premier League side. The Irons may well see a successful FA Cup campaign as a bright light during a dark and stormy season.
I’ve gathered all the stats I could from their domestic leagues to help you pick a bet builder. From xG to corners, goals to passes, shots to fouls and stats in between, if you’re planning on placing a bet builder you’ll want to back up your selections with some numbers. Use the pack below alongside my Stats Pack Guide to boost your chances of winning bets.
Derby County manager Paul Warne may have been tempted to field the same starting 11 that edged Port Vale last week 2-1, with two goals in the last few minutes.
David McGoldrick has been dropped for James Collins up top, while Lewis Dobbindidn’t quite do enough to edge out Tom Barkhuizen’s spot on the wing despite providing an assist last time out, and starting the last 3 of 4 FA Cup games.
David Moyes is expected to put out a strong lineup, despite being 32 positions above the hosts in the English Football League.
Michail Antonio will start up top given the absence of Gianluca Scamacca and Danny Ings. I’d fully expect a similar team to the one that beat Everton 2-0 in the league, although cup keeper Alphonse Areola may take his place between the sticks.
The Rams have won their last 6 games on the bounce in all competitions, including a convincing 3-0 win over Barnsley in the FA Cup third round.
They can count themselves slightly lucky about their position in 4th though, given their opponents have converted just 0.78 goals per game despite creating an xG of 1.21. That being said, Derby have outperformed their League One opposition in all metrics.
It’s a very different tale for the Hammers, who have been receiving blows more often than they’ve been dealt, conceding 1.25 goals per game and scoring just 0.85. This can be attributed to their poor shot conversion, as they’ve managed just a 27.2% shot accuracy and have converted just 53% of their expected goals.
Games involving the Hammers average just under 10 corners, and just under 3 cards.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
David McGoldrick will be the pick of the bunch to start tonight, and that’s in most part due to his ability to get into shot-taking positions, and managing to get 53.3% of his chances on target. He’s priced at 1.73 for a shot on target.
No other likely starter averages over an attempt on target per game, although Nathaniel Mendez-Laing at 1.13 for a single shot could be worth adding to a bet builder.
As I reported earlier, West Ham’s conversion rates are woeful, and that’s summed up nicely by Michail Antonio. 33.2% shot accuracy and just 2.08 shots p/90 from your main man up top isn’t enough for a Premier League calibre striker.
Jarrod Bowen was a real starring light last season, but again he manages just 0.50 on target from 2.16 shots – 23.1% accuracy. Lucas Paqueta and Said Benrahma may in fact be better bets, although the latter now takes a slightly deeper role to what he is used to in Moyes’ 3-4-2-1. That’s why I’d look in the direction of Benrahma 1 or more shots on target at 1.3.
Players Goals and Assists
Derby haven’t been the most efficient in attack, and despite sitting fourth they rank number 8 for goals for in League One. David McGoldrick and James Collins take credit for 16 of their 40 goals, and are both rated at 4.0 to score at anytime.
My eyes turn to Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, who has scored as many as he’s provided with 12 goal contributions. At 3.6 to score or assist, he may be one you’d fancy in your bet builder.
The Hammers have scored just 17 goals in 20 Premier League games, and even scraped to a 1-0 win over Brentford in the last round of the FA Cup.
Jarrod Bowen, Said Benrahma and Michail Antonio have each been involved in 4 goals, with Benrahma the only name on the scoresheet in that game at Brentford. Bowen notched 2 of his goals last week against a struggling Everton.
League One passing stats aren’t available, so I’ve had to leave a gap here. It’s worth noting though that Derby County average 54% possession this season.
Declan Rice is the heartbeat of this team, and his consistent performances have earnt him many suitors including Arsenal and Manchester United. He averages 9.3 passes more than any other teammate, despite the side averaging 45% of the ball. Whenever West Ham are in possession, Rice almost effortlessly makes himself available.
Apart from that, it’s interesting to see two left-backs make the graphic in Aaron Cresswell and Emerson Palmieri, and whoever starts may earn their fair share of passes.
Derby County Cards
Of the starters, Conor Hourihane and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing are the standouts. And although the referee averages exactly 3 cards a game, I wouldn’t shy away from the fouls market.
Hourihane is priced at 1.62 to commit 1 or more fouls and averages 0.94 fouls p/90, receiving 6 bookings. Mendez-Laing’s chances of making a foul are surprisingly rated slightly lower at 1.67, and he makes 1.15 fouls p/90.
Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen are the ones that are going to cause the most troubles to Derby’s defence, both being fouled almost twice every 90 minutes, and attempt well over 2 dribbles a game.
Match-ups to watch:
Nathaniel Mendez-Laing vs Emerson Palmieri
Conor Hourihane vs Lucas Paqueta
Haydon Roberts vs Jarrod Bowen
West Ham Cards
West Ham don’t receive a huge amount of cards, so I would probably steer away from them in a game where they may dominate the ball.
The man I’d watch for fouls is Lucas Paqueta, in a more defensive role than normal, and averaging a whopping 2.43 fouls p/90. The bookies have spotted this and he measures at 1.13 for 1+ fouls or 1.67 for 2+.
He’s going to spend much of his time in a tussle with Jason Knight, who’s fouled 2.23 times p/90.
In midfield there’ll be more areas to watch with the likes of Conor Hourihane drawing the fouls, while the pace of Lewis Dobbin on the left may well draw some attention from Vladimir Coufal and Kurt Zouma.
Match-ups to watch:
Lucas Paqueta vs Jason Knight
Declan Rice vs Conor Hourihane
Vladimir Coufal vs Lewis Dobbin
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Here’s a few bet builder picks that stood out as value when making the stats pack. It comes in as 3/1 as a combined bet builder.