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Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid
16th April
kick off 20:00 Donyell Malen to have 1+ Shots on Target
Malen averages 1.70 shots on target per 90 and will not shy away from shooting. He has scored 11 times but only provided one assist which shows how selfish he can be to try and hit the back of the net himself.
Antoine Griezmann 1+ Shots on targetThe Frenchman averages just over one shot on target per 90 and is a reliable talisman who will get chances. Likely to be on some free kicks and possibly penalties as well.
Emre Can to commit 2+ foulsHe is up against Rodrigo De Paul who is fouled a hefty 2.56 times on average per 90. Emre Can himself averages well over a foul per game and also got booked in the first leg. He’s going to be overworked in the middle of the park.
Marcos Llorente to commit 1+ foulsThere is going to be a lot of jostling for position in midfield and Llorente is going to be right in the heart of the action.
He averages 1.15 fouls per 90 and got carded in the first leg. Up against the likes of Marcel Sabitzer and, even potentially, Niclas Fullkrug dropping deeper who are foul magnets.
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Dortmund host Atletico Madrid for the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final, in what we believe will be a tight encounter.
Atletico Madrid come into this with the one-goal advantage that they will be desperately defending in a manner we have seen them be so successful with in the knockout rounds of the Champions League under Diego Simeone over the last decade or so.
Dortmund have had a disappointing season by their standards, they had waited in the wings for the best part of a decade to see Bayern falter in the domination of the Bundesliga and now the opportunity has come, they find themselves nowhere near and locked in a battle just to secure their spot back in this competition for next season.
This is a season-defining game for both sides and with everything on the line it seems a great opportunity for a Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid bet builder.
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Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid PREDICTED LINEUPS
Haller injury a blow for Dortmund
Sebastien Haller scored the goal that got Dortmund back into the first leg but is ruled out now with injury. Ramy Bensebaini remains on the sidelines and there are major doubts surrounding the talented English duo Jadon Sancho and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens. manager Edin Terzic is expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation with Sancho hopefully fit enough to be employed on the right wing.
Lino suspension for the visitors
Saul Niguez is an injury doubt for Atletico but probably wouldn’t have started anyway. One spot where Diego Simeone is going to have to make a change is on the left-hand side where Samuel Lino is suspended. Rodrigo Riquelme could deputise in that position while there is also a chance that Mario Hermonso could play some part in a three-man backline. The Spanish side operated more in a 3-5-2 last week but are likely to be more defensively orientated in a 5-3-2 at Signal Iduna Park.
Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid team stats
Defensive stats mask vulnerable metrics
Borussia Dortmund average 1.97 goals per game and certainly carry some attacking punching power. The biggest metric that stands out is their defensive overachievement. Their goals against per game of 1.17 hides their xGA per match of 1.44. Dortmund allow more shots and shots on target against than their Spanish opponents. Cards and corners stats for BVB do not offer anything remarkable this season.
Atletico’s free-scoring nature continues
The goalscoring ability of Atletico Madrid goes under the radar. They average 1.90 goals per game and also have strong xG metrics. Atleti are one of the most accurate sides around converting 12.62 shots into 5.45 on target. Simeone is known for having strong defensive sides and they only allow 3.94 shots on target against with an xGA of 1.10. Corners are fairly low on average in their games but a massive 16 got racked up in the first leg.
Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET
Donyell crying out to be backed
Dortmund’s Donyell Malen averages a hefty 1.70 shot on target per 90 minutes.= and Niklas Fullkrug averages close to one shot on target per contest. They can be backed to hit the target at least once at odds of 1.33 and 1.30 respectively. This is recommended rather than backing either in the shots market where you’d need to take them to have three or more shots to get any value and this is beyond their seasonal averages.
Atletico remain accurate in front of goal
From the team stats image you can tell that Atletico Madrid are quite an accurate team, converting close to 45% of their shots on target. It may be worth looking at the shots on target market for specific individuals. Alvaro Morata and Antoine Grizemann both average at least one per 90. They are priced much bigger for the second leg so we could get some value. Morata is as big as 1.30 to hit the target with Griezmann a juicy 1.44.
Dortmund vs Atletico madrid goals and assists stats
Fullkrug and Brandt offer dynamic threat
Niklas Fullkrug and Julian Brandt are dynamic threats and can be looked at in the ‘to score or assist’ market. If you fancy Malen to have a good game then backing him to score would make more sense. He’s not a big assist threat but odds of 3.30 to hit the back of the net are quite juicy.
Morata and Griezmann the most likely to score
Nothing has changed from the first leg. The duo of Morata and Griezmann both stand out again and are central to what Atletico Madrid achieve offensively. Together, they’ve combined for over 30 goals and assists this season and are the obvious starting place when looking for an anytime scorer. Morata has not been hot for a while so the 2.70 on offer he scores could be swerved. Griezmann to score or assist at 2.10 could be the safer option.
dortmund CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Emre Can in for a tough night
Dortmund are generally known for being quite a clean team. They only average 1.90 cards per game and rank inside the bottom four for cards picked up in the Bundesliga. Dortmund only average 9.4 fouls per game domestically although that figure does increase to 11 in the Champions League. Both Ian Maatsen and Emre Can got booked in the first leg and could be the top candidates for fouls.
Atletico are a canny side but are one of the fewest fouled teams in the Champions League this season at around 9 times per game. This could be to do with low possession numbers but certain players are still foul magnets. Argentinian World Cup winner Rodrigo De Paul is fouled 2.56 times per 90 minutes and this is why Emre Can has a particularly difficult matchup. He can be backed at 1.91 to commit two or more fouls which looks well within his reach.
Atletico Madrid CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Visitors could be more disciplined than expected
Atletico only average 2.45 cards per game which is still a reasonably high rate but perhaps not as high compared to what most would expect. They rank inside the bottom seven for both cards obtained and fouls committed in La Liga this season. There are several individuals who all average over one foul per 90 with the likes of Morata, Marcos Llorente and De Paul possible serial offenders.
Dortmund draw an average of 2.10 cards per game from their opponents which is a mediocre amount. Fullkrug is clever enough to win several cheap free kicks and could challenge anyone in the spine of the team. Perhaps the likes of Jose Gimenez or Llorente could be the best foul options in this Atletico lineup.
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