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Dortmund vs Real Madrid Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Dortmund vs Real Madrid

Calendar 1st June
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Over 3.5 Dortmund corners
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Dortmund have hit this line in 11 of their 12 Champions League games this season, and average 5.42 corners per game.

Real Madrid have conceded 4+ corners in 5 of their 6 CL knockout games, and have conceded an average of 5.61 corners in the CL this season.

Football icon Real Madrid GK to make 2+ saves
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Real Madrid’s GK has made 3+ saves in all 6 knockout stage games, and has made 2+ in 10 of their 12 CL games this season.

Dortmund have forced 2+ saves in each of their knockout stage games, and 3+ in 6 of their last 7 CL games.

Football icon Dani Carvajal to be fouled 1+ times
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Carvajal wins 1.07 fouls per 90 in the CL, and has won a foul in 7 of his last 10 Real Madrid starts in all competitions, and in 5 of his last 6 CL starts.

He will be up against Adeyemi, who commits 1.98 fouls per 90, and has committed 2+ fouls in 2 of his last 3 CL starts.

Football icon Vinicius Junior to score or assist
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Vinicius Junior has scored or assisted in 8 of his last 11 starts for Real Madrid in all competitions.

He has had a shot on target in 11 of his last 12 starts, and has set up at least one shot in each of his 6 CL knockout appearances, setting up 2+ in 3 of these 6 games.

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The regular European football season draws to a close on Saturday evening as Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid go head-to-head in the Champions League final.

Unfancied Dortmund overcame Atletico Madrid and PSG on their way to this year’s final, their first appearance in such a game since their heartbreaking last-minute defeat to Bayern Munich back in 2013.

Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid are making their second appearance in three years, winning the competition in 2022, and aiming for a record-extending 15th title in this competition, having won five of the last 10 editions of the Champions League.

We’ve delved into the data to find the very best available selections for your Champions League final bet builders, so have a read of our research and pick out your favourites, or simply follow along with our 7/1 bet builder on this page.

The Stats Pack Guide will prove to be very useful at this stage of the season, helping you dissect the data in our articles to help you with your bets over this summer of football.

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Dortmund vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups

Two weeks rest for Dortmund

The only change expected for Dortmund after their 4-0 win over Darmstadt two weeks ago is the return of Julian Brandt, after Marco Reus started for the club at Signal Iduna Park for the final time after 12 years of service. The Champions League final is no time for sentimentality however, so if Reus is to have an impact here, it will be from the bench. None of the expected starters have any injury concerns, however, Sebastien Haller could be a useful impact sub if he recovers from an ankle injury in time to feature here.

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Ancelotti set on his starters here

Real Madrid’s last game, a 0-0 draw with Real Betis last weekend looked to be a dry run of the team for this contest, with no changes expected from their Italian boss. That means a start for Toni Kroos in his final club game before retirement, while injured Aurelien Tchouameni’s absence means Eduardo Camavinga will start in midfield. Nacho is expected to be preferred to Eder Militao at the back once again, in what will be his final game for the club. Despite Andriy Lunin featuring in all six knockout games, Thibaut Courtois will start in goal here, the Belgian returning to the fold in recent weeks after spending most of the season out injured.

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Dortmund vs Real Madrid Team Stats

Corners look good value for Dortmund

Dortmund have averaged 5.42 corners across their Champions League campaign to date, taking at least four corners in each of their six knockout stage games, and in 11 of their 12 European clashes in 2023/24. Real Madrid meanwhile have conceded 5.61 corners per game in the Champions League, and have allowed four or more corners in five of their six knockout games, and in eight of their 12 games in this competition. Dortmund can be backed at 1.60 to have four or more corners, great value considering their strong record in this area.

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Saves market an interesting prospect for Real Madrid

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been far from secure in the Champions League this season, conceding in all but one of their six knockout stage games, and shipping eight goals in their last five European games. Their goalkeeper has been forced into three or more saves in each of their knockout stage games, and in nine of their 12 Champions League games so far this season, where they have averaged 3.58 saves per game. Dortmund meanwhile have forced three or more saves in six of their last seven Champions League games. All this suggests that backing the Real Madrid goalkeeper to make two or more saves at 1.40 could be a steal, and a price of 2.20 for him to make three or more saves looks massively undervalued.

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Dortmund vs Real Madrid Shots and Shots on Target Stats

Niclas Fullkrug looks good for a shot on target

Germany international striker Niclas Fullkrug was playing second tier football with Werder Bremen in 2021/22 but has shown little sign of being overawed during this Champions League campaign. He has chipped in with a goal or assist at each round of the knockout stages and looks the best option for a shot on target amongst Dortmund players here. Fullkrug has had 0.93 shots on target per 90 in the Bundesliga, and 0.95 in the Champions League. He arrives here having hit a shot on target in eight of his last nine starts, and in five straight Champions League games, so backing him at 1.67 to have a shot on target at Wembley could pay dividends.

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Rodrygo offers value in player shots market

Despite experiencing a recent goal drought, last scoring against Man City on April 17, Rodrygo has not let that knock his confidence in front of goal, where he has averaged 3.72 shots per 90 in La Liga. That confidence to take the shot on has translated to European competition also, where he has taken 3.69 shots per 90. The Brazil international has had three or more shots in five of his six Champions League knockout games, hitting two in the one game in which he fell short. All that considered, he looks well worth taking to have three or more shots at 1.50 here.

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Dortmund vs Real Madrid goals and assists stats

Julian Brandt offers the best value

Very few Dortmund players are fancied to get on the scoresheet or assist here, which offers us the chance to look for some value. Julian Brandt looks the best choice of the various attacking options, with none of the front four being in great goalscoring form of late. Brandt has 24 goal contributions this season, and like striker Fullkrug, has notched at least one goal or assist in each round of the Champions League knockouts. He has a goal and an assist from his last three games, despite starting just one of these three matches, and is worth considering for those looking for a longshot option here, as he can be backed to score or assist at 3.75.

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Vinicius Junior the man in form for Los Blancos

While strike partner Rodrygo is experiencing a goal drought, and Jude Bellingham has struggled to impact the Champions League knockout stages, Vinicius Junior is the obvious choice for a goal or an assist for Real Madrid here. The Brazil international has hit a shot on target in 11 of his last 12 starts for the club, and has now scored five goals and bagged an assist from his last five starts in all competitions. Vinicius has scored or assisted at every stage of the knockouts so far, and has now scored or assisted in eight of his last 11 starts for Real Madrid. He can be backed to make his mark on the final with a goal or an assist at 1.73.

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Dortmund Cards and fouls stats

Julian Ryerson looks a near-banker

Norway international Ryerson commits 0.92 fouls per 90 in the Bundesliga, the fifth-most of any Dortmund player. In the Champions League this season he averages exactly 1.0 fouls per 90 and has committed at least one in four of his last five games. He will be asked to track Vinicius Junior as he pulls out to the left-wing position, the Brazilian draws 1.22 fouls per 90, and has won at least one foul in each of his last 13 starts for Real Madrid. Ryerson will also be up against Ferland Mendy, who has won a foul in four of his last six Champions League starts, making Ryerson committing one or more fouls look extremely likely, but still offering solid value at 1.33.

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Dani Carvajal offers an interesting option

Nobody has committed more fouls per 90 than Karim Adeyemi’s 1.98 for Dortmund in the Bundesliga this season. Adeyemi has also fouled twice or more in two of his last three Champions League games. He is up against Dani Carvajal here, the Spaniard has won a foul in seven of his last ten starts for Real Madrid, and in five of his last six starts in the Champions League. Carvajal won 0.79 fouls per 90 in La Liga, solid numbers, but this jumps way up in European competition, where he has won 1.07 per 90, good enough to rank amongst the top five most fouled Real Madrid players. He can be backed to win a foul here at 2.0, a great price considering his recent history.

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Real Madrid cards and Fouls Stats

Ferland Mendy offers the best value here

Mendy commits the fourth-most fouls of any Real Madrid player per 90 in Champions League games this season, at 0.92. The French left back is also in strong fouling form, both domestically and in continental competition, having done so in seven of his last nine starts in all competitions, and in five of his last six starts in the Champions League. He will be partially tasked with covering Jadon Sancho, but the real interest comes in his matchup with Dortmund right back Julian Ryerson, as Sancho usually drifts inside. Ryerson won 1.28 fouls per 90 in the Bundesliga, and has won a foul in four of his last six Champions League starts. Mendy can be backed to commit a foul at 1.53 here.

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Emre Can looks likely to win a foul

Germany international Emre Can won 1.06 fouls per 90 in the Bundesliga this season, winning a foul in four of his last six Dortmund starts. The Germany international has won fouls in six of his last seven Champions League games and should find himself up against Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham here. Valverde may have only committed 0.59 fouls per 90 in La Liga across the entire season, but he has now fouled in 13 of his last 16 starts for Real Madrid, and in five of their six knockout stage games in this competition, while Bellingham commits 1.25 fouls per 90 in the league, fouling in four of his five Champions League knockout games and in seven of his last nine games in all competitions. He can be backed to win a foul at a very tempting 1.57.

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