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EFL League One Preview and Best Bets

english league one

Derby vs Peterborough

Peterborough to win either half – 11/8 (2.38)

It’s always nice to see your strikers get on the score sheet, it’s even better when they both get two. Johnson Clarke-Harris got his third and fourth goals of the season in Peterborough’s 4-0 demolition of Lincoln City, Jack Marriot also bagged himself a brace. They’ve started this season in the 3-5-2 formation that is proving so popular throughout the EFL, a key component of this system is having that goal threat at the top end of the pitch so for both strikers to be chipping in with goals is perfect.

Grant McCann will be thrilled with the way his team have adapted to life back in the third tier. Peterborough are always going to be competing at the top end of League One and I believe this season will be business as usual for Posh. They’re the joint highest scorers in the league, having scored twelve in their opening five games. They have scored four times as many goals as their opponents on Saturday.

Derby have got a great home record and have won their opening two matches at Pride Park. Last season they gained 40 points from 23 games at Championship level so it’s not a surprise to see them as favourites for this game, however I do think the price is too short. The Rams are really struggling for goals and both of their last two fixtures have finished goalless, although they were unlucky against Fleetwood as they registered an xG of 2.35.

With the way Peterborough have started this season I think the 3/1 price for them to win the game is outrageous and it gives us a few options of ways to play this one. You can get Peterborough draw no bet at 2/1, Peterborough double chance is 10/11 but I think my favourite bet is Peterborough to win either half which is priced up at 11/8. That means that even if Derby have a commanding lead at half time, all we would need is Peterborough to win the second half for this bet to be a winner.

Morecambe vs MK Dons

Both Teams To Score: No – 10/11 (1.91)

Both of these teams were involved in 1-1 draws last weekend. MK Dons drew at home to Accrington Stanley as they failed to capitalise on their first victory of the season against Port Vale on Tuesday night. It’s been a really disappointing start to the campaign for last season’s play-off semi-finalists, and if we delve into the stats it’s clear to see where the problems are coming from. The Dons don’t create anywhere near enough chances, they have a total xG of just 2.45 across the whole season so far, averaging less than 0.5 a game (0.51 vs Accrington (1-1), 0.45 vs Port Vale (2-1), 0.39 vs Ipswich (0-3), 0.63 vs Sheff Wed (0-1), 0.42 vs Cambridge (0-1)) which just hasn’t been enough to get them points. They can keep it tight and stay in games as they don’t give away many chances and usually control the ball, but there’s nothing positive in an attacking sense.

Morecambe have been a similar story to MK Dons, and they sit just one place and one point behind the visitors. They have created chances at a slightly higher rate, but it’s still nothing to be shouting from the rooftops, and they have a total xG of just 2.91 for the season. The Shrimps have averaged just over 0.5 xG per 90 (0.38 vs Oxford (1-1), 0.38 vs Bolton (0-1), 1.18 vs Fleetwood (1-1), 0.55 vs Peterborough (0-3), 0.61 vs Shrewsbury (0-0)).

Unsurprisingly given the stats I’ve listed above, the matches involving these two haven’t been high scoring. Three out of MK Dons’ five matches have seen only one team find the net, and three out of the five have seen under 2.5 goals. BTTS; No would have been a winner in three out of Morecambe’s five matches and less than three goals have been scored in four out of five.

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