Boreham Wood vs Aldershot
Boreham Wood To Win @ 1.62 (8/13)
Boreham Wood are always hard to beat at home and based on their opening game at Meadow Park this season on Saturday it will be the same story again this term.
They hosted Notts County and what was a good game of football they got a well-deserved 2-2 draw. They allowed to Notts County to have a lot of possession as they had just 25% of the ball during the game and only made 183 passes. What is crucial for me though is that when Boreham Wood did have the ball they created some strong chances as their xG was 2.06. Now we must factor in the fact they had a penalty, but so did Notts County and their xG was lower at 1.06.
Aldershot are nowhere near the level of Notts County and this should be a comfortable home win. Aldershot have conceded plenty of chances in their two games so far with Solihull having 17 shots against them for an xG of 2.81 and Chesterfield had 25 shots against them on Saturday for an xG of 2.13. Frustratingly Chesterfield could only score 1 given I put them up to score over 1.5 goals which as the xG suggests they should have done.
Boreham Wood should see much more of the ball in this game and if they can create the same sort of chances as they did on Saturday then they should be picking up 3 points here. They rate a confident selection to do so.
Chesterfield vs Wrexham
Chesterfield To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) @ 1.57 (4/7)
As I mention above it was annoying that Chesterfield could only find the net once on Saturday given they really should have added a 2nd at least. It was a very professional performance though and as I touched on in Saturday’s preview if their keeper hadn’t been sent off against Dorking then I think they would have won that game very easily instead of it ending 2-2.
Chesterfield fans will be delighted that star striker Kabongo Tshimanga came off the bench against Aldershot to make his first appearance since a nasty leg injury he got in a game against Weymouth in February. Without that he would have been top goal scorer in the division with ease and he still came 2nd despite missing so much of the season. The fact he is back in action is crucial for Chesterfield.
Wrexham were very disappointing on Saturday as they could only get a 1-1 draw against Yeovil. What was most worrying is that the only shots they managed in the 2nd half were a couple of blocked efforts in the 90th minute and their xG was just 0.45.
Yeovil even managed a higher xG of 0.53. Now clearly it was very hot on Saturday and that wouldn’t have helped and Yeovil’s goal was a wonder strike, but I have serious doubts about Phil Parkinson being the right man for the job and more performances like this will see him out of a job. I do expect an improved performance against one of their title rivals, but for me the prices are just all wrong here and we are able to cover Chesterfield and the draw at a shade of odds on which looks well worth taking.
Maidstone vs Dorking
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 (8/13)
I will probably find myself repeating myself when it comes to Dorking games this season as I really do think most of their goals will feature over 2.5 goals.
They showed perfectly why on BT Sport on Saturday against Oldham. Marc White only seems to know one way of setting up his teams and they were always looking to be on the front foot, but that left them short at the back. A mis-placed pass was the start of the move for Oldham’s 1st and they comfortably ended up being 3 up without really having to work all that hard.
Maybe White will try and shore up the defence as the season goes on, but to be honest I’m not sure that he will. What we then saw was that they are capable of scoring goals as well and they got 2 back late on before running out of time to get an equaliser. So that game had 5 goals and their opening game had 4 goals and I expect this one to be over 2.5 as well.
Maidstone will be pleased with their start to the season having got a 1-1 draw at Altrincham and then over-turning a 1 goal deficit on Saturday to beat York in their first home game of the new campaign. That clearly shows they are capable of adding to the goal tally as well and I think the price on there being over 2.5 goals looks too big.
Woking vs Scunthorpe
Woking to win @ 2.1 (21/10)
After having a good win on the opening day against a poor looking Yeovil team it was a massive reality check for Scunthorpe on Saturday as they went to Maidenhead and lost 3-2. Granted it looked even worse at half time because they were 3 down so they can take a bit of confidence in the fact they won the 2nd half 2-0, but even so it showed the fans what life is like in the National League!
Tuesday night they travel to another traditional Non-League club in the shape of Woking and I fancy them to lose again. Woking were really bad in their opening game against York which surprised me because I think they have an outside chance of a top 7 finish this term.
They were much better on Saturday though and kept Dagenham & Redbridge very quiet in a 2-0 victory. Both goals came from corners, but they had a decent xG of 1.65. Like Boreham Wood against Notts County they allowed their opponents plenty of the ball as Dagenham had 61% of possession, but they failed to muster a single shot on target and their xG was just 0.5.
When I saw the prices for this round of fixtures it was the price on the home win which stood like a sore thumb as a must bet as I think Woking are a better side than Scunthorpe this season and I will be disappointed if they don’t get the 3 points.
Solihull Moors vs York City
Solihull Moors To Win @ 1.5 (1/2)
This is the live game on BT Sport on Wednesday night and it should be a really good game. Solihull looked very impressive in their opening game of the season against Aldershot and then they came up against a Southend side who I think will go well this season on Saturday. I think in the heat both sides essentially cancelled each out and the game ended 1-1.
Solihull look to play nice football and quickly and whilst they attempted 411 passes the heat probably just slowed them down from their usual style of play. It should be much cooler on Wednesday night and given I think Solihull are title contenders they ought to get the better of York. As I mention above, they let a 1 goal lead slip to Maidstone on Saturday who scored two quick goals midway through the 2nd half.
They do have a good side, but it could be they might a little more time to properly gel and this is one of the toughest games they will face all season. Solihull got more points in the last 15 games of last season than any other team in the league and they look just as strong this time around.
With Solihull playing an attractive brand of football this should make for a good game to watch at home and hopefully we can make a few quid as well in backing the home side to win the 3 points.
