Interesting game tonight in the UEFA Super Cup. Champions League winners Real Madrid take on Europa League winners Frankfurt in Helsinki, live on BT Sport.
I’ve put in a hard graft to get out some research for the game, along with some of my recommended selections – they’re in bold. That should save you some time if you want to skim through before placing any bets.
It’s hard to really see how this game will go given it’s still a preseason game; it’s the first competitive game for Madrid and third for the German outfit. The teams are not common rivals either – they last met in a friendly 14 years ago.
Anyway, let’s get started with the shots and goals markets:
Historically, the Super Cup has had goals with both teams scoring in every year’s match-up since 2014. The last 5 times Madrid have featured, they’ve scored 2 or more goals.
I don’t look at games often and expect to see as many goals as in this game.
Looking at both teams’ form last season in their domestic leagues and in Europe – these two love goals. At both ends. Not to mention, Frankfurt kicked off this season with a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Bayern Munich.
Real Madrid averaged 2.92 goals per game in La Liga last term, the second highest in the league. Frankfurt themselves averaged 2.76 in the Bundesliga.
In Europe, Madrid scored 15 goals across the knockout stages, conceding 11 too. That’s 3.7 goals a game! Frankfurt’s European campaign saw them score in every knockout game, scoring 11 and conceding 7.
Karim Benzema registered 44 goals and 15 assists in 46 appearances in all competitions for Madrid in 2021-22 and averaged a direct goal contribution every 66.42 minutes.
A good value bet is for Both Teams to Score at 1.73 and over 2.5 goals at 1.53. Or if you want to go bold, Real Madrid over 2.5 goals at 2.50 is a shout.
I’d also back Benzema to bag a goal contribution. The Frenchman to score at 1.73 is a bargain, or even to score or assist at 1.44.
In terms of shots, Madrid averaged 18.29 shots per game, with 2.11 of them ending in the back of the net. They also registered 6 or more shots on target in 82% of their games.
Vinicius Jr. managed to contribute many of those shots. In 13 Champions League appearances last season, he managed 27 shots – over 2 per game. He continued that form in La Liga with 80 shots in 35 games, with 42 on target.
Real Madrid 6+ Shots on Target at 1.57 is a bit of a steal.
Vinicius Jr. to have 1+ Shots on Target at 1.36 is pretty good value.
Real have also won 4 of their last 5 Super Cup ties, with Spanish sides winning 12 Super Cups since the turn of the century. Only Atletico Madrid have upset the odds (on 3 occasions) as Europa League winners to overcome the Champions League winners in the last 12 matches.
Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes at 1.4 looks a very safe bet.
Let’s move onto discipline and the cards market:
Again, it’s hard to see how this one will go given it’s a preseason and the match-up isn’t a common one.
It’s good to look at the cards in previous Super Cup games. Last year, there were 2 bookings each for Chelsea and Villarreal. There has been an average of 5.2 bookings in the previous 5 years, including 8 in Madrid’s last appearance, although that was against rivals Atletico Madrid.
Michael Oliver will be refereeing this match, and he isn’t shy about handing out cards. Last season, he broke 1000 cards in the Premier League in just 300 games. He averages 3.44 cards per game, which increases to a staggering 4.54 in the Champions League.
Last season, Real Madrid registered 25 cards in 13 European games last season, whilst Eintracht registered 29 in the same number of games in the Europa League.
Casemiro received 16 yellow cards in just 48 matches in all competitions – a card every 3 games. The next on Madrid’s disciplinary list were Eduardo Camavinga (10) and Eder Militao (10).
Only two Frankfurt players broke double figures for Frankfurt last season – defenders Martin Hinteregger and Tuta – with the Brazilian seeing red twice.
I’d expect cards in this game, with over 2.5 cards at 1.33 and over 3.5 cards at 1.91 looking undervalued.
Casemiro to be shown a card is also decent value at 3.1, with Tuta being a good shout for a card at 4.5 too. If you could bet on a Brazilian to be booked, I would!
Finally, we’ve got corners:
Real Madrid play in a 4-3-3 formation and that’s something we’ve seen from them for years now, it’s a trademark set-up at this point. Vinicius down the left will cause problems for Frankfurt, and they’ll no doubt rack up the corners.
Real Madrid averaged the third highest number of corners in La Liga last term, with 5.5 Madrid corners per game and a total of 9.4.
Frankfurt on the other hand won 3-2 at the Nou Camp despite having just 26% possession and zero corners. They somehow managed to muster up 7 shots on target and it comes down to their style of play. I’ll explain: Frankfurt operate in a 3-4-2-1 formation where the full backs have a huge role to play. The German side play out from the back with that task belonging to the three defenders and goalkeeper. In possession, the two central midfielders will drop deep and this is what allows the full backs to sit high up the line.
They’ve also lost arguably their best player in Filip Kostic. 4 goals and 9 assists in the League, 3 goals and 6 assists in Europe last season. Without their big creative threat on the wings, I can’t see them mustering up many corners once again.
I think an almost guaranteed return is Real Madrid to have more corners, surprisingly coming in at a generous 1.5.
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And that’s a wrap on this piece. If you’ve got this far, then congratulations are in order. But seriously, thanks for reading and I hope it helps with any bets you’re placing tonight.
Remember, keep it fun and gamble responsibly. Low stakes and to your budget.
Good luck and enjoy the game.
