Augsburg vs Frankfurt
This one lept off the screen at me. It’s a scorcher.
Augsburg games average exactly 3 goals, with 58% of them having over 2.5 land.
Recent games have been mental. Their last 6 have all had BTTS land, 5 of those have had over 2.5 goals.
Their last 6 have finished: 2-3 (W), 1-1, 3-2 (L), 2-5 (L), 3-3 & 2-1 (L).
They’ve impressed in attack, scoring 3 against Leipzig and 2 against Bayern.
It’s their defence that’s really let them down. An average xGA of 2.14 means it could actually be much worse, as they’ve conceded 1.75 per game from that.
Only poor opposition finishing has spared them an even worse defensive record.
As for Frankfurt, the Europa League champions are fresh from sealing Champions League qualification and confidence is high.
They’re 5th in the Bundesliga and 2nd only to Bayern for entertainment.
Their games this season have averaged 3.75 goals, with 67% of them landing for over 2.5.
They average an impressive xG of 1.62 and the team is blessed with an abundance of attacking talent.
With Randal Kolo-Muani in attack, supported by the likes of Mario Gotze, Jesper Lindstrom and Daichi Kamada, this is an exciting team.
Kamada and Lindstrom have already scored 13 goals between them. Kolo-Muani has registered a goal or an assist in 6 straight games.
KV Mechelen vs Zulte Waregem
The Belgian league has been an absolute peach for goals this season.
Mechelen games average 3.33 goals, with 73% of them having over 2.5.
10 of their last 11 have seen this selection land.
At 1.78, they suffer one of the highest xGA’s in the league. They’ve been decent in attack though, scoring an average of 1.47 goals per game.
As for Waregem, they’re currently bottom of the league, largely thanks to a defence that’s conceded 33 times in just 15 games.
Their games have averaged 3.27 goals, with 60% landing for an over 2.5 wager.
They suffer a huge average xGA of 2.07.
Their recent games have been wild, their last 5 have finished: 2-5 (L), 1-3 (W), 3-2 (W), 2-1 (L), 0-3 (W).
They’ve shown signs of light recently with improved xG and some good results, especially a 3-2 win over Anderlecht.
They don’t need loads of chances to score, especially with veteran striker Jelle Vossen in attack.
St Gallen vs Grasshoppers
Over to Switzerland, for another game that really stood out.
I’ve had Grasshoppers on my radar this season, their games are bonkers.
Averaging 3.86 goals with 71% of them landing for over 2.5. Grasshoppers have failed to score just once this season but have also only managed 1 clean sheet.
They’re outperforming their 1.32 xG, scoring an average of 1.86 goals per game.
Credit there goes to how clinical their forwards have been when presented with chances. So there’s clearly quality in the squad.
They’ve been held back by their dismal defence who are offering up 2.01 xG per game.
They’ve not managed to outrun that metric and are shipping 2 goals per game on average.
Opponents St Gallen are just 1 point ahead and have also provided a similar level of chaos.
Their games have averaged 3.21 goals and 57% of them have seen this selection land.
Neither side are yet to take part in a 0-0.
They average a solid xG of 1.6 but also suffer an average xGA of 1.45.
St Gallen are a good side and want to be up at the top end of the table. Grasshoppers have dreams of re instating themselves as a top dog in Switzerland.
I expect these 2 to go blow for blow and give us a goal fest.
Lausanne-Ouchy vs Bellinzona
taying in Switzerland, but dropping in to the 2nd tier for this one.
The hosts have joyous metrics for a goals bet. Brilliant at taking chances, but very poor at keeping things tight. It’s the perfect combination.
They’re averaging an xGF of 1.82, which they’re tailing narrowly with 1.79 goals per game.
Alarmingly, for a team top of the table, they’re suffering an average xGA of 1.74.
They’ve got away with that too, as they’ve conceded 1.36 on average from that.
That’s left them top by a point. This league is incredibly competitive too, with just 5 points separating these two sides in 1st and 5th.
Newly promoted Bellinzona are giving a cracking account of themselves and have done so in chaotic fashion.
They’re conceding nearly 2 goals per game yet have managed to keep tabs on the league’s upper echelons.
Lausanne-Ouchy games have averaged 3.14 goals, with 64% hitting the mark for over 2.5.
As for Bellinzona, their games have averaged 3.43 goals, also with a 64% strike rate for this selection.
I’d expect the hosts to win and score a few along the way, but the visitors have shown they can punch well above their weight.