France vs morocco Betting Tips and Stats

It just feels like it could be France’s year once again, doesn’t it? They may be a bit top heavy, but when you have the quality in the final third that they have at their disposal, it doesn’t really matter, as they’re capable of blowing anyone away. Once again, the focus is on Kylian Mbappe.

In what will come as a surprise to absolutely nobody, Mbappe ranks joint first with Messi at the World Cup for total shots on target with 17, that’s a staggering average of 3.49 P/90.

In fact, his record for two or more is as strong as any other forwards record for one shot on target; it’s landed in all five of his World Cup outings so far, with Mbappe also hitting three shots on target in three of those five games this summer. Go back even further, and this has landed in 14 straight competitive games for France, a run that includes Senegal, Norway, Germany, Spain, Croatia, and Belgium.

If Mbappe can do that against the best nations in the world, then he’ll have joy against a Morocco side that did show a bit of fragility at the back against Canada. They conceded three shots on target in that game, and even conceded five in their opener against Brazil.

I think it’s fair to assume that for as good as they are, Morocco will likely spend large chunks of this game on the back foot. France will throw bodies forward in numbers, and Morocco will need to find ways of relieving those waves of pressure; the man to do just that? It’s Neil El Aynaoui.

If you’ve watched Morocco play at this World Cup, then no doubt El Aynaoui will have stood out as the aggressor in the midfield, the one who chases the ball and that’s quite happy to throw himself at anything that moves. He’s committed more fouls than any other player in the Morocco squad as a result of those traits, and he’s averaging 2.12 fouls P/90.

The important thing for me here is that El Aynaoui’s game naturally suits playing against the elite nations that look to keep the ball, or that play at a serious tempo. This is another one of those situations; he committed four fouls in Morocco’s opener against Brazil, and racked up five fouls against the Netherlands.

France’s midfield will control the tempo, and they’re an ideal foil for this selection. We’re all well aware of the quality Michael Olise brings in the pockets, and his 2.05 fouls drawn P/90 will make a difference. Rabiot and Kone draw a further 1.83 fouls P/90 in the pivot, and they’ll be ideal targets for El Aynaoui’s press.

Seeing Ayyoub Bouaddi play in the way that he is should come as no shock to fans of French football. The teenager is such a calming presence on the ball, and has a maturity and understanding of the game that very few players of his age ever exhibit. He’s the perfect partner to the more aggressive El Aynaoui, and if his partner is the one to commit fouls, Bouaddi is the one to win them.

Morocco will need a way to relieve pressure here, and the technical ability in tight spaces, and in dealing with the press, from Bouaddi should come in handy in that regard. He’s drawn an average of 1.67 fouls P/90 at the World Cup, drawing at least two in three of his four starts thus far. The one blip on that record was in Morocco’s group meeting with Scotland, a game in which their opponents largely sat off and offered little in the way of a threat.

Against a better opponent, one that presses and that will look to win the ball back quickly, Bouaddi’s talent should be evident, and he will draw fouls. There were no signs of nerves when Bouaddi drew two fouls from Brazil’s midfield in his World Cup debut, and this is another test that I suspect won’t phase him. Kone and Rabiot combine for 3.08 fouls P/90 in the France midfield, and quite frankly I think Bouaddi has the ability to out-maneuver them.