In their first international match since the heartbreak of the World Cup final against Argentina, France host the Netherlands at the Stade de France in the opener of their Euro 2024 Qualifying campaign. The Dutchmen were also knocked out of the tournament on penalties by the Argentines in the semi final.
It should be a classic between the two favourites to qualify for the main event, so that should mean a great game for bet builders. So I’ve put together the stats from their 2022 internationals with numbers for goals, shots, corners, cards, and fouls. Use the data alongside my Stats Pack Guide to compile a better quality bet builder.
Newly announced France captain Kylian Mbappe will undoubtedly feature for Les Bleus in Paris, partnering with the man allegedly angered by his snubbing of the captain’s armband, Antoine Griezmann.
Milan’s Mike Maignan will likely take the retiring captain Hugo Lloris’s spot between the sticks, while Ibrahima Konate and Olivier Giroud deputise for Karim Benzema and Raphael Varane who also announced their international retirement after the World Cup Final.
With Frenkie de Jong and Steven Bergwijn not fit enough for the 25 man squad, Wout Weghorst and Martin de Roon are expected to start for the Flying Dutchman.
However, Ronald Koeman is expected to dismantle the 3-4-1-2 formation and adopt the Dutch-style Total Football formation of 4-3-3. Virgil Van Dijk will start in the new back four, with both Lutsharel Geertruida and Sven Botman hoping to earn their first caps in the place of the suspended Denzel Dumfries and the sick Mathis de Ligt.
France dominate the stats department in every metric in 2022, and can even be slightly unfortunate not to score more given their xG.
They average over 15 shots, 6 shots on target, and 6 corners per game. Their opposition tend to receive over double the attention from the referee too, and the Dutch are priced at 2.10 to receive more cards tonight.
The Dutch have had fairly well-matched games in 2022, but their conversion into goals is exceptional. Memphis Depay’s 20 goal contributions helps them well exceed their xG of just 1.37 per game.
They’re perfectly matched with their opposition for cards and corners, while there’s not much to split in the shots department. In their last international against Argentina in the World Cup semis, you’ll remember there being a ridiculous 18 cards handed out.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Mbappe will be hopeful to kick off his captaincy with a bang. And he’s going to be popping off the attempts as a result. He averages 1.86 shots on target p/90 from over 4 shots.
Olivier Giroud is also a good candidate for a shot on target having averaged over 1 per 90 minutes. He’s priced at 1.36 for one tonight.
Depay’s averages are insane. Nearly 3 shots on target a game! He might represent some value at 1.44 for just one attempt on target playing off the big man in Wout Weghorst.
The 6ft6 Manchester United striker doesn’t make the graphic for shots as he wasn’t a starter last year, but he has been struggling for conversion for his club.
Player Goals and Assists
Kylian Mbappe managed 15 goals in 2022 for his country, with Antoine Griezmann and Theo Hernandez being his main creators.
Having 20 goal contributions explains why the bookies favour him to get on the score or assist sheet at 1.67.
Memphis Depay matches Mbappe for goal contributions, as he was adopted as the most advanced player for Van Gaal’s men.
Wout Weghorst scored twice in the Netherlands’ last World Cup tie, while Cody Gakpo scored in each of the group stage games.
The French don’t rack up a huge amount of cards, but the referee Maurizio Mariani averages a hefty 5.32 cards per game.
Adrien Rabiot and Theo Hernandez are the players to watch out for in terms of fouls and cards.
Georginio Wijnaldum in the centre of the park draws his fair share of cards, but it’s in fact the wings the French will need to be on high alert for. Memphis Depay on the right, with Nathan Ake and Cody Gakpo on the left.
Match-ups to watch:
Adrien Rabiot vs Aurelien Tchouameni
Theo Hernandez vs Memphis Depay
Jules Kounde vs Nathan Ake and Cody Gakpo
Denzel Dumfries is by far the best candidate for cards for the visitors, but as he saw red late on in the famous battle against the Argentines at the World Cup he’s suspended today.
Don’t expect another 18 cards without Lahoz in charge, but the referee tonight will certainly brandish a few.
Kylian Mbappe vs new starter Geertruida could be an intriguing battle to watch to see if the Feyenoord youngster can cope, while Theo Hernandez will also be on the overlap.
Match-ups to watch:
Lutsharel Geertruida vs Theo Hernandez
Georginio Wijnaldum vs Aurelien Tchouameni
Mathis de Ligt vs Kylian Mbappe
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
This should be a great clash and a great game for a few bet builder winners to come flying in. If you’re lacking inspiration from the stats above, why don’t I kick start the betting brain with a few of my value selections?
France vs Netherlands
Mbappe has 20 goals contributions for his country in 2022.
He has 32 goal contributions for PSG this season in 32 appearances in Ligue 1 and the Champions League.
He scored 3 in his last game for France – the World Cup Final.
He has just been appointed captain and has a point to prove.
In 2022, Depay averaged 2.63 shots on target p/90 for the Netherlands, from 5.12 shots.
He averages 1.40 shots on target p/90 for Atletico Madrid this season.
He has managed at least 1 shot on target in 9 of his last 12 competitive internationals.
In those 12 games he’s racked up 25 attempts on target, at a rate of 2.08 per game.
The Dutch average 2.00 cards per game in 2022.
French opposition average 1.93 cards per game.
Referee Maurizio Mariani averages 5.32 cards per game.
There were 18 cards in the Netherlands’ last game, with 7 for the Dutchmen.
Adrien Rabiot averages 1.42 fouls p/90 for his national team.
He also averages 1.21 for Juventus this season.
He committed 3 fouls in each of his last 2 internationals, and at least one in 7 f his last 9.