France meet Poland at the Al Thumama Stadium in Doha with a place in the World Cup quarter finals at stake. France won their group but were beaten 0-1 by Tunisia in their most recent game. Poland, meanwhile, endured a nail biting finale when they managed to just finish 2nd ahead of Mexico on goal difference. At one stage it looked like disciplinary record was going to be used to separate the two teams.
Below are all the numbers for this Round of 16 contest, laden with useful info on shots, shots on target, xG, cards, corners and more from both teams’ World Cup group games. Use this data along with my Stats Pack Guide when picking your value selections for your bet builder.
Didier Deschamps totally changed the team for the final group fixture vs Tunisia, but France will be back to full strength here. Les Bleus did not enjoy much injury luck heading into the tournament with the likes of Benzema and N’Golo Kante all ruled out.
Lucas Hernandez suffered a bad injury vs Australia in the first group game and is now ruled out for a long time. His brother Theo Hernandez will play left back in his absence and France will be in their typical 4-3-3 formation.
Right back is a questionable spot where Jules Koundé could get the nod over an out of form Benjamin Pavard.
Poland have had a consistent XI in this tournament and not much should change here. They operated in a 4-2-3-1 system vs Argentina and with France providing a similar level of opposition then it would be a surprise if the manager suddenly tried anything new. Poland have no suspensions and no new reported injuries.
France have averaged two goals per game in this tournament which correlates very closely to their xG of 2.07. Their xGA of 0.97 per match has been strong too. France average a whopping 18 shots per 90 mins but only five of those have been converted into SOT’s which is fairly poor accuracy.
They have a high average corner count at 7.33 per match and have conceded a few with exactly 4.0 against per game. France have been incredibly well disciplined, picking up just 0.33 cards per 90 mins and have drawn on average two cards from their opponents.
Poland have slightly underachieved their xG of 1.06 per match in this tournament by only netting two goals overall. At the other end of the field, they have been very lucky to have only conceded two goals. Their xGA is 2.20 per 90 mins and Wojciech Szczęsny is the main man to thank.
The Poland custodian has been the stand-out keeper in this tournament and already saved two penalties. Poland have on average conceded a massive 16 shots against per match and only fired 6 themselves. They concede an average of 6.66 corners per game and only obtained 3.33. Their discipline has been mid-rank with 1.66 cards for and against.
Player shots and shots on target
Kylian Mbappé averages 6.92 shots per 90 mins at this tournament with an impressive 3.03 of those on target per match. The rest of the French players have not been very accurate though.
Olivier Giroud has only converted 4.20 shots per 90 mins into 0.87 SOT. Adrien Rabiot has shot over 3 times per match but only has a SOT rate of 0.87. Ousmane Dembele has an even worse SOT average of 0.56 per 90 mins. Minus Mbappe, there’s been a lot of shots but lacking those testing the goalkeeper.
Only three Polish players have had any shots on target at this tournament, Lewandowski, Kaminski and Zielinski. T
he main man upfront, Robert Lewandowski has averaged exactly two shots per game, but at times can become very isolated in this Polish national team. His SOT per match has been 0.67. No other player in this team averages more than 1.25 shots per 90 mins.
Player goals and assists
Kylian Mbappé leads the French goalscoring charts at the World Cup, bagging three goals. Olivier Giroud has scored twice from just two appearances. Assists have been spread around the team, but left back Theo Hernández, who is only playing because of an injury to his brother, has supplied a couple of goals in his two games.
Only Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski have scored goals for Poland so far at this tournament. Lewandowski also has their only assist. Those two along with Swiderski and Frankowski offer the biggest threat for Poland, so any focus in this market must be on those players.
The only player to pick up a card so far for France in this World Cup is Jules Koundé. They have been incredibly well disciplined, and no player has averaged more than 1.20 fouls per 90 mins.
In midfield, expect both Adrien Rabiot and Aurelien Tchouameni to get stuck in if needed, and both could be potential card candidates against a physical Poland outfit. Jules Koundé is on a tightrope if he starts and will be worked hard by the speedy Frankowski. Olivier Giroud is quite a physical target man forward and is usually good for a foul somewhere in each match.
Four Poland players have been fouled on average more than two times per game. Lewandowski is a tough unit to battle and it’s no surprise to see him lead this statistic for Poland at 2.67 times per 90 mins.
Milik has played 73 mis in this tournament and on average gets fouled 2.50 times. Both Frankowski on the left wing and Krychowiak in midfield have been fouled over two times per 90 mins on average.
Matchups to watch
Jules Koundé vs Przemyslaw Frankowski
Adrien Rabiot vs Grzegorz Krychowiak
Raphaël Varane vs Robert Lewandowski
Five Poland players have picked up yellow cards in this tournament so far but with everything on the line as a massive underdog, avoiding another booking will be the last thing on these players’ minds.
Matty Cash has averaged two fouls per game and has the unfortunate honour of going head to head with Kylian Mbappé in this match. Midfield man Krychowiak is never shy of making a few challenges and has averaged 1.72 fouls per 90 mins. Poland have otherwise been quite clean in terms of fouls number, with everyone else average less than 0.60 fouls per 90 mins.
Camavinga has only played one match at this tournament but was fouled 5 times in it. Left back Theo Hernández has been fouled 3.16 times per 90 mins and is one to watch as he gets forward regularly on that side.
Kylian Mbappé has surprisingly only been fouled 1.74 times per 90 mins, possibly due to the fact he’s so elusive to get near sometimes! Aurelien Tchouameni is always up for a battle in midfield and has been fouled 1.43 times on average per match.
Matchups to watch
Matty Cash vs Kylian Mbappé
Grzegorz Krychowiak vs Aurélien Tchouaméni
Piotr Zieliński vs Theo Hernández