Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Napoli to Deutsche Bank Park for the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie. Napoli have been in sensational domestic form and sit miles clear at the top of the Serie A table. They also crushed their opponents in the CL Group stages, including a famous 4-1 win vs Liverpool. Frankfurt, the defending Europa League champions will be no mugs though.
Analysing their domestic campaigns so far in the German Bundesliga and the Italian Serie A, I’ve compiled all the data for goals, assists, shots, corners, passes, cards, and fouls. I’d suggest using the numbers alongside my Stats Pack Guide to pick the best bet builder possible.
Frankfurt have Dina Ebimbe and Wenig injured long term, whilst midfielder Sebastian Rode has an illness and is unlikely to feature. They should line up in a 3-4-3 formation with Gotze and Lindstrom playing in behind the in-form Randal Kolo Muani.
Napoli have pretty much a clean bill of health ahead of the game. It’s no secret how they will line up in a 4-3-3 formation with Victor Osimhen upfront and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia on the left wing. Mexican international Hirving Lozano will likely play on the right hand side. Mario Rui should keep his place in the side at left back.
Frankfurt average exactly two goals per game, although have overachieved at this end of the field considering their xG is 1.55. The German outfit concede on average 1.38 goals per game which is a moderate amount. Both shots for and against are a very similar number around the 11 mark. Frankfurt have a decent 4.10 SOT ratio per match.
Corner numbers have been fairly middling in Frankfurt games. They have obtained 5.14 themselves and 4.57 against per match. Again, they also have very mediocre numbers for cards obtained (1.57). Their opponents have averaged 2.38 cards against.
Napoli average a whopping 2.43 goals per game which isn’t far from their xG of 2.17. Their defence has been impressive with an xGA of just 1.18. The Italians have only conceded an average of 0.65 goals per game, aided by their opponents only having 2.48 SOT. Napoli have fired in an impressive 16.30 shots in each fixture and have not shied away from attempts.
Napoli matches have mediocre corner rates with 5.39 for and 4.22 against. They have managed to draw a massive 2.91 cards per game on average from their opponents. Luciano Spalletti’s men have generally been very clean this season and only picked up an average of 1.35 cards themselves.
Player shots and shots on target
Jesper Lindstrom and Kolo Muani both average the most shots per 90 mins for Frankfurt. Kolo Muani surprisingly only fires2.25 attempts in each game. He has close to a 50% accuracy rate though which is impressive. Only Knauff and Kamada on this list also average more than one shot per 90 mins. Frankfurt are not the sort of team who just fire in shots wildly, they wait for good opportunities.
The man on fire Victor Osimhen has been really peppering the goal this season, averaging 4.57 shots per 90 mins. His SOT ratio is not too bad either at 1.83. Kvicha Kvaratskhelia has the next highest number of shots for Napoli at 3.35 per 90 mins with 1.35 on target. The duo of Lozano and Zielinski both like to try their luck and comfortably average well over 2 shots per 90 mins.
Player goals and assists
Randal Kolo Muani is the clear standout player for Frankfurt. He astonishingly leads them with both goals and assists with 10 each. Lindstrom and Kamada have 7 goals each with Kamada also chipping in with four assists. That trio of aforementioned players are the ones to consider in this market for Frankfurt.
Victor Osimhen has scored a monstrous 18 goals this season and he even missed quite a chunk of the campaign due to injury. Kvicha Kvaratskhelia leads the team for assists with 9 and he has also scored 10 times. Midfield runners Elmas, Zielinski and Lozano have also chipped in with goals. Polish international Zielinski is the second leading assist maker in the team with six.
Napoli have averaged a massive 61% possession this season. As a result, several of their players have eclipsed the 70 passes mark per 90 mins. Kim Min-jae is likely to last the whole match barring injury and is the prime candidate here along with fellow centre back Rrahmani. The trio of Rui, Lobotka and Anguissa all average over 60 passes per 90 mins.
Frankfurt average 51% possession and are more of a counter-attacking team. None of their players on this list average more than 60 passes per 90 mins but the defensive trio of Smolcic, Tuta and Ndicka are quite close to that mark. Despite being at home, Frankfurt are unlikely to monopolise possession in this fixture so it could be risky taking any of their players in the passing markets.
A trio of players have four cards, Kolo Muani, Tuta and Sow. Kolo Muani is such a physical player and averages nearly two fouls per 90 mins. He will certainly get stuck in if required. Centre back N’Dicka has an incredibly tough matchup with Victor Osimhen, whilst both Tuta and Buta are going to have to deal with Georgian superstar Kvicha Kvaratskhelia.
It is no surprise to see Kvicha Kvaratskhelia average 6.90 dribbles per 90 mins. He is amazing 1 vs 1 and is fouled 1.68 times per 90 mins. He is so elusive that its actually very hard to get him fouled! Hirving Lozano is another with a high dribbling rate and is brought down nearly twice per game. Tanguy Ndombele is a versatile box to box midfielder and fouled the most of any Napoli player at 2.70 times per 90 mins. He is another who has a high dribbling rate (3.33).
Matchups to watch
Evan Ndicka vs Victor Oshimen
Aurelio Buta vs Kvicha Kvaratskhelia
Randal Kolo Muani vs Kim Min-jae
It is noticeable how much of a clean team Napoli are. They do not obtain many cards with defender Kim Min-jae and midfielder Tanguy Ndombele leading their bookings charts, but only with 4 and 3 respectively. Both Osimhen and Lozano press from the front and are candidates to commit fouls in less dangerous areas. Both players average around 1.60 fouls per 90 mins.
The key man is clearly Randal Kolo Muani again. He dribbles close to five times per 90 mins and gets fouled on average 2.53 times. He combined both skill with a strong physique and can be a difficult man to bring down. Mario Gotze is the other stand out player who could cause Napoli issues. He is fouled 1.62 times per 90 mins and it could be down to Lobotkato do a job on him.
Matchups to watch
Kim Min-jae vs Randal Kolo Muani
Lobotka vs Mario Gotze
Hirving Lozano vs Phillip Max
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
I was compiling all the data and having a look at the bet builder markets and couldn’t help but avert your eyes to these value selections. Load them into your betslip in one click at 5/1.
Frankfurt vs Napoli
Evan N’Dicka plays on the left of Frankfurt’s back three, and makes his fair share of fouls.
He’s made 1.29 fouls p/90, and has been in the referee’s book on 3 occasions in the Bundesliga.
In the league, he’s made at least one foul in 8 of his last 10 outings, and has made a total of 16 fouls in that time. That’s an increase on his league average to 1.60.
In the UCL, he also received a booking in the first Group Stage game at home to Sporting Lisbon. He made at least one foul in 4 of the 6 group games (5 in total).
Against Napoli, he may face his trickiest test of the season. Hirving Lozano is fouled almost twice a game, at a rate of 1.92 fouls drawn p/90. The Mexican winger attempts 3.83 dribbles p/90 too.
To make matters worse, if Mateo Politano starts or comes off the bench, he’s fouled another 1.82 times p/90 and attempts 4.18 dribbles p/90.
The referee also dishes out the cards and awards the fouls. This season he’s averaged 5.57 cards per game, but more importantly for this selection 25.50 fouls.
As I just mentioned, referee Artur Soares Dias averages 5.57 cards per game this season, up from his career average of 4.59.
Frankfurt games this season also average 3.95 cards this season. That average increases in the Champions League to 4.50 (27 cards in 6 games). When there was a lot on the line in that last group game, Frankfurt received 4 cards while their opponents Sporting received 3.
This one’s a knockout so no doubt will be a lot on the line again.
Napoli go one better with their games in Serie A averaging 4.26 cards. Their 6 Champions League group games saw 29 cards in total at a rate of 4.83 per game. That included drawing two reds from their opponents in Ajax and Rangers.
Goals seem a must in this game. Frankfurt games average 3.38 goals while Napoli games average 3.08. At home, Frankfurt’s average goes up to 3.54.
This selection came in in 4 out of Frankfurt’s 6 Group Stage games, and goals streamed in in either direction. They won 2-1 on two occasions, but also conceded 3 to both Tottenham and Sporting.
This selection came in in 5 out of Napoli’s 6 group games, and their score lines included 4-1, 3-0, 6-1, 4-2, 3-0, 0-2. That loss and under 2.5 goals game came against Liverpool when they had already sealed top spot.
If you look more recently, both Frankfurt and Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games domestically.
Kolo Muani’s record has been outrageous this season. He’s registered exactly one goal contribution per game for Frankfurt – a side that aren’t setting the world alight in the Bundesliga.
10 goals and 10 assists in 20 appearances is a fine fettle.
He also managed a goal in each of his last two Champions League games against Sporting and Marseille.
He’s in a hot streak at the moment too, since that World Cup Final miss, he’s managed 7 goals and 2 assists in his 6 matches in the Bundesliga.